# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Interest Rates

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Interest Rates", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Is the Rebound an Illusion? The Bond Market Has Already Given the Answer

Is the stock market's rapid rebound to pre-war levels a sign of recovery or a misleading rally driven by momentum rather than fundamentals? While the S&P 500 has fully recovered its losses from the U.S.-Iran conflict and nears all-time highs, bond and oil markets tell a different story. Key data reveals contradictions: 10-year Treasury yields have risen 30 basis points, signaling persistent inflation concerns and constrained Fed policy space. WTI crude is up 37%, indicating that geopolitical risks are not priced to resolve soon. The 2-year Treasury yield, a sensitive gauge of rate expectations, has increased nearly 40 bps, challenging the narrative of imminent Fed rate cuts. The equity market appears to be pricing in a "perfect scenario": subdued oil impact on consumption, Fed rate cuts despite hot inflation, stable corporate margins, and near-term conflict resolution. However, bonds and oil reflect a reality of sticky inflation, limited Fed flexibility, and ongoing geopolitical tension. This divergence suggests the rally may be momentum-driven rather than fundamentally justified. If upcoming CPI data exceeds expectations (e.g., above 3.5%), the 2026 rate-cut narrative could collapse. Investors chasing the rally are betting on an ideal outcome—swift conflict resolution, controlled inflation, Fed easing, and resilient earnings—while ignoring signals from more cautious asset classes. The gap will likely close either through a fundamental improvement validating stocks or a market correction aligning with bond and oil realities.

marsbit04/16 07:05

Is the Rebound an Illusion? The Bond Market Has Already Given the Answer

marsbit04/16 07:05

Crypto, AI Investments Surface In Fed Chair Nominee’s Financial Disclosure

Amidst key regulatory vacancies at the SEC and CFTC, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh disclosed over $100 million in assets, including investments in crypto firms (Compound, Dapper Labs, Kinetic) and AI companies (Delphi, Conversion, among others). His largest holding is the $50+ million Juggernaut Fund. The disclosure did not value his crypto/AI holdings, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest as the Fed’s rate decisions directly impact these sectors. With Jerome Powell’s term ending May 15, Warsh’s Senate confirmation process is advancing rapidly.

bitcoinist04/15 21:32

Crypto, AI Investments Surface In Fed Chair Nominee’s Financial Disclosure

bitcoinist04/15 21:32

The Richest Fed Chair in History, Blocked by an Absurd Political Farce

The nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor with a personal wealth estimated between $131 million and $209 million, to become the next Fed Chair is stalled by a political standoff. Republican Senator Thom Tillis vows to block the confirmation in the Senate Banking Committee to protest a Justice Department investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell over misleading testimony about a $2.5 billion building renovation. Powell claims the probe is political retaliation for not cutting rates faster. With Powell's term ending on May 15, he has stated he will remain as acting chair if Warsh is not confirmed, creating an unprecedented leadership crisis. Warsh's extensive financial disclosures reveal significant investments, including in crypto entities like Polymarket, Solana, and Bitcoin Lightning Network firms, though he has pledged to divest if confirmed. His potential leadership is seen as favorable for crypto and rate cuts, unlike Powell's cautious stance. The outcome hinges on whether the DOJ investigation is resolved in the next 30 days, a period critical for global markets and crypto regulation.

marsbit04/15 02:11

The Richest Fed Chair in History, Blocked by an Absurd Political Farce

marsbit04/15 02:11

Interest Rates May Not Be Cut This Year

The article discusses how a war in the Persian Gulf, leading to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil prices, with Brent crude surging from $70 to over $118 per barrel. This energy shock has pushed U.S. retail gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, contributing significantly to inflation. The CPI rose to 3.3% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, with energy costs affecting broader sectors like food and logistics. As a result, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 has diminished. Market predictions now show a high probability of zero rate cuts, compared to pre-war expectations of multiple cuts. The Fed faces a dilemma between addressing inflation risks and supporting the economy. Politically, the situation poses challenges for President Trump and the Republican Party, as high inflation could impact the upcoming midterm elections. Trump's efforts to negotiate with Iran have stalled due to irreconcilable demands, and Iran's拖延 tactics may further strain U.S. economic and political stability. The article concludes that the prolonged conflict and sustained high oil prices could keep inflation elevated, delaying any monetary easing.

marsbit04/14 02:03

marsbit04/14 02:03

Market Analysis: Circle's Pricing Logic Is Outdated, Still Has 80% Upside Potential

Market Analysis: Circle's current valuation as an interest-rate-sensitive money market fund is outdated, with an estimated 80% upside potential. Despite a 75 bps Fed rate cut in H2 2025, USDC supply grew 72% to $75.3B, indicating demand is driven by utility, not just yield-seeking. The baseline forecast predicts a $1.5T stablecoin market by 2030, with USDC averaging $284B in supply. Reserve revenue is projected to grow 3.5x to $9.24B by 2030, as supply growth outweighs rate compression. Circle’s Payment Network (CPN) and other services add diversification, with total revenue reaching $9.8B and net income ~$1.8B by 2030. Key growth drivers include AI agent commerce (McKinsey forecasts $3-5T by 2030), B2B payments, and regulatory tailwinds like the GENIUS Act. A 25x terminal P/E on 2030 EPS of $6.73 implies a $168 target price. Risks include white-label competition, rate sensitivity, and reliance on Coinbase, but Circle’s liquidity depth and regulatory moat provide mitigation.

marsbit04/09 03:22

Market Analysis: Circle's Pricing Logic Is Outdated, Still Has 80% Upside Potential

marsbit04/09 03:22

$700 Billion Poured into AI, Americans Taste the Bitter Fruit of Inflation First

A Federal Reserve analysis from the St. Louis Fed argues that AI optimism itself is a driver of inflation. The "news shock" of AI's revolutionary potential causes households and businesses to increase spending and investment in anticipation of future gains, pushing demand beyond current supply and creating inflationary pressure. This is supported by a Deutsche Bank experiment where AI models (dbLumina, Claude, ChatGPT-5.2) assessed a 20-40% probability that AI would raise inflation in the next year, citing surging demand for data centers, semiconductors, and electricity. They saw only a 5% chance of AI significantly reducing inflation. Massive capital expenditure underscores this demand. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are projected to spend a combined ~$663B in 2026, a fourfold increase in four years. A significant portion funds power-hungry data centers. For example, OpenAI's "Stargate" project plans a 10-gigawatt capacity, equivalent to the entire electricity load of 16 Vermont states. U.S. data center electricity consumption is forecast to triple by 2030. While AI could eventually boost productivity and be disinflationary long-term, current data shows no such productivity jump. The U.S. economy now faces a cycle: massive AI investment fuels inflation, delays interest rate cuts, raises financing costs—yet the investment continues to accelerate. The outcome hinges on whether these AI models will ultimately make the economy more efficient, a question that remains unanswered.

marsbit04/02 11:03

$700 Billion Poured into AI, Americans Taste the Bitter Fruit of Inflation First

marsbit04/02 11:03

The $59 Billion Illusion: How the Female Version of Buffett Fell from Grace?

"Cathie Wood, once hailed as the 'next Warren Buffett' and a star among millennial investors, saw her flagship ARKK ETF soar to a peak of $59 billion in assets under management (AUM) by February 2021. Her strategy of betting on disruptive technologies like Tesla, genomics, and AI—while publicly sharing her research and daily trades—initially delivered staggering returns, with ARKK surging 152% in 2020 as she doubled down during the COVID crash. However, rising interest rates exposed the fragility of her high-growth, unprofitable tech holdings. ARKK plummeted nearly 75% from its peak, erasing over $50 billion in AUM by 2026. Critics labeled her approach—essentially applying venture capital (VC) logic to public markets—as fundamentally flawed. Unlike VC, where losses are absorbed by private gains, public markets impose real-time pricing and liquidity pressures, accelerating losses during downturns. Ironically, while Wood correctly predicted the AI revolution, she sold NVIDIA early—missing out on over $1.2 billion in gains—to maintain her "anti-consensus" brand and focus on smaller, speculative names. Her daily transparency and massive scale turned her into a target, as markets anticipated her moves. Despite recent pivots back into gene editing and AI infrastructure, her assets remain a fraction of their peak, underscoring the gap between predicting trends and profiting from them."

marsbit04/02 04:13

The $59 Billion Illusion: How the Female Version of Buffett Fell from Grace?

marsbit04/02 04:13

Investors Pull $414M From Crypto Funds As Inflation, MidEast War Jitters Mount

Investors withdrew $414 million from crypto funds last week, ending a five-week inflow streak. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $296 million in outflows, reversing earlier gains. Ether suffered the largest outflows at $222 million, pushing its year-to-date performance negative. Bitcoin remained positive for the year despite $194 million in outflows. XRP was an exception, attracting $16 million. The sell-off was driven by inflation concerns, shifting expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes, and rising Middle East tensions, causing a broad shift away from riskier assets. Total assets under management fell to near $130 billion, levels last seen in early February.

bitcoinist03/31 07:02

Investors Pull $414M From Crypto Funds As Inflation, MidEast War Jitters Mount

bitcoinist03/31 07:02

Soaring Oil Prices No Longer Drive Up Interest Rates, What Is the Market Afraid Of?

Oil prices surged nearly 60% in March 2026—the steepest monthly rise since Brent crude's inception in 1988—after the Strait of Hormuz closed, cutting off 17.8 million barrels per day of oil flow. Historically, such spikes pushed inflation expectations and bond yields higher, but this time, the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply from 4.44% to 3.92% in late March, signaling a decoupling. This divergence reflects a market shift: growth risks now outweigh inflation concerns. Bond markets are betting on recession rather than persistent inflation. Historical oil shocks—like those in 1973, 1979, 1990, and 2008—often preceded economic downturns. The sole exception was the 2022 spike, which triggered severe inflation instead. Market expectations pivoted rapidly. Earlier, traders anticipated rate cuts, but by late March, weak consumer confidence and manufacturing data drove bets toward Fed dovishness. Chair Powell emphasized monitoring whether the supply shock is temporary, but the bond market has already priced in recession risks. If stagflation emerges—as during 1973–1982—real assets like gold and commodities may outperform, while stocks and bonds could suffer. The 60/40 portfolio would be particularly vulnerable. Analysts project Brent could average $115–125 in April, with a peak of $150 possible if the Strait remains closed. The bond market’s verdict is clear: fear of recession dominates.

marsbit03/31 03:05

Soaring Oil Prices No Longer Drive Up Interest Rates, What Is the Market Afraid Of?

marsbit03/31 03:05

War Doesn't Just Drive Up Oil Prices, Why Is Circle's Stock Price Soaring?

A class of companies, like defense contractors and oil giants, typically benefit from global instability. Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, unexpectedly joined this group as its stock price surged over 150% in five weeks, while the broader crypto market remained down 44% from its peak. The core of Circle's business is holding US Treasuries to back each USDC in circulation. The interest earned on these bonds constitutes about 90% of its quarterly revenue, making the Federal Funds rate its primary driver. The recent price surge was triggered by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which drove oil prices up approximately 35%. This raised inflation concerns, leading markets to drastically scale back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026. Higher-for-longer interest rates mean Circle's treasury reserves continue to generate elevated yields, translating to more revenue and a rising stock price. This macroeconomic shift caused a short squeeze, as a significant portion of Circl's stock was shorted based on the expectation of falling rates. However, the bullish narrative extends beyond a macro trade. Despite a net loss for FY2025, USDC's supply has reached a new all-time high of $79 billion, and its transaction volume now surpasses that of the larger USDT. This growth is attributed to its use as a payment infrastructure for cross-border transfers, tokenized assets, and AI agent micropayments, especially in regions where traditional banking becomes unreliable during crises. A major structural challenge is Circle's costly revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase, which took 54 cents of every dollar Circle earned in 2024. The market is currently pricing Circle as both a high-yield play and a critical piece of future financial infrastructure. The central tension remains: its profitability is currently dependent on high interest rates, but its long-term value hinges on successfully transitioning to a business model sustained by transaction fees and payment network services, independent of the Fed's decisions.

marsbit03/30 09:56