# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Halving

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Halving", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

2026 Outlook (Part 2): Bitcoin, The Shift in Pricing Power from Digital Gold to Neutral Value Reserve

Bitcoin 2026 Outlook: Transition from Digital Gold to Neutral Reserve Asset By 2026, Bitcoin is at a historic turning point, with its pricing power irreversibly shifting from crypto-native capital to traditional asset allocation logic. The core narrative is evolving from "digital gold" to a "neutral reserve asset," driven by geopolitical fragmentation and the restructuring of the global financial order into a multipolar system. Key drivers include institutional adoption via ETFs and corporate treasury strategies (DATs), which collectively lock up significant supply, reducing volatility and decoupling Bitcoin from its traditional four-year halving cycle. Market consensus confirms three key trends: 1) pricing is now demand-driven by institutional flows rather than halving-induced supply shocks, 2) Bitcoin is becoming a strategic asset on institutional and national balance sheets, and 3) long-term volatility will converge toward commodities like gold. The year will see a divided first half with wide price swings due to macro uncertainty and technical resistance near $100k, followed by a calmer second half as Fed rate cuts and growing institutional holdings solidify the new paradigm. Key risks include macro policy shifts, regulatory changes, ETF outflow reversals, and potential DAT company failures. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s value will be determined by its adoption as a non-sovereign, strategic reserve asset in global institutional allocation models.

marsbit01/24 10:50

2026 Outlook (Part 2): Bitcoin, The Shift in Pricing Power from Digital Gold to Neutral Value Reserve

marsbit01/24 10:50

Small-Cap Index Hits New High Again: Will History Predict This Crypto Bull Market?

Small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has reached a new all-time high in early 2026, sparking discussions about its historical correlation with Bitcoin bull markets. The index, which tracks 2,000 smaller U.S. companies, is seen as a gauge of risk appetite, as these firms are more sensitive to interest rate changes due to their reliance on bank financing. Historical data shows that previous breakouts in Russell 2000—in 2016 and 2020—coincided with major Bitcoin rallies. In 2016, post-halving supply constraints and improved risk appetite fueled a bull run. In 2020, massive monetary easing and institutional adoption drove Bitcoin’s surge. However, the current cycle differs. Bitcoin had already reached $100,000 by November 2024, and its post-halving gains—around 50% since April 2024—are modest compared to previous cycles (5x and 27x). Factors like institutional involvement through ETFs, reduced volatility, diminishing halving effects, and earlier price peaks may explain the slower momentum. While some analysts link Russell 2000’s performance to crypto market movements due to shared sensitivity to macro liquidity, the correlation remains speculative with only two historical instances. Notably, despite the index’s rise, small-cap ETFs saw significant outflows in 2025, and many Russell 2000 companies reported negative earnings—raising questions about the sustainability of the risk-on narrative. The article concludes that while Russell 2000’s breakout is an interesting macro indicator, it should not be used as a direct trading signal for crypto, given structural market changes and limited historical evidence.

比推01/23 13:34

Small-Cap Index Hits New High Again: Will History Predict This Crypto Bull Market?

比推01/23 13:34

Bitcoin Recovers In January: Funding Divergence Points To A Spot-Driven Market

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize above $91,000 amid fragile demand after recent volatility. A CryptoQuant report indicates January is a recovery phase, driven by institutional and whale accumulation, while retail remains hesitant. Notably, Bitcoin's spot price and funding rates have diverged in early 2026, signaling a spot-driven market. This suggests the move is supported by real buying rather than excessive leverage, reducing liquidation risks and potentially leading to more durable rallies. Some analysts question if the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is fading, as ETFs and corporate demand may be creating steadier inflows. Market direction may now be more affected by macro factors like Fed policy and institutional flows rather than halving events. Technically, Bitcoin is testing key support-turned-resistance near the 100-week moving average. A weekly close above $95,000 is needed to confirm a bullish shift.

bitcoinist01/21 03:01

Bitcoin Recovers In January: Funding Divergence Points To A Spot-Driven Market

bitcoinist01/21 03:01

Bitcoin’s Pullback Feels Brutal, But History Says It Could Drag On For Months

Bitcoin has fallen below $92,000, signaling continued downside pressure despite efforts by bulls to defend key support levels. Analyst Darkfost notes the current pullback is only 109 days from the last all-time high, much shorter than previous major corrections which lasted over 150 days. While the decline feels intense due to significant realized losses, capitulation, and stressed short-term holders, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could remain in a choppy recovery phase for months without breaking its broader cycle structure. This cycle is further complicated by ETF-driven institutional demand, potentially leading to longer consolidations and less predictable behavior. Technically, Bitcoin remains below key moving averages, with the $90,000–$88,000 range acting as critical support. A breakdown below this level could target December lows, while reclaiming $92,000 is essential for bullish momentum.

bitcoinist01/21 01:02

Bitcoin’s Pullback Feels Brutal, But History Says It Could Drag On For Months

bitcoinist01/21 01:02

‘BTC’s security is lower now’ – Why miners are abandoning Bitcoin for AI

The AI boom is offering Bitcoin miners a new lifeline as declining block rewards and high operational costs make mining less profitable. Companies like Bitfarms and Riot Platforms are abandoning or diversifying away from Bitcoin mining to reinvest in AI infrastructure, sometimes funding this shift by selling their BTC holdings. This exodus adds selling pressure on Bitcoin and raises concerns about network security. As block rewards continue to halve, the security budget that incentivizes miners is shrinking. Analyst Justin Bons warns that Bitcoin's security is now lower than five years ago and will keep falling until the network is potentially attacked. While miner capitulation has historically signaled a market bottom, the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin mining remains uncertain compared to the lucrative returns from AI.

ambcrypto01/20 16:02

‘BTC’s security is lower now’ – Why miners are abandoning Bitcoin for AI

ambcrypto01/20 16:02

Wintermute: The Four-Year Cycle is Dead, How Will Crypto Break Through in 2026?

The traditional four-year crypto cycle, once considered a market "iron law," is now obsolete, according to a 2025 annual report from market maker Wintermute. The market logic has shifted from "seasonal rotation" to "liquidity lock-up." 2025 did not bring the anticipated broad rally but instead showed extreme polarization: BTC and ETH gained institutional legitimacy through ETFs, while altcoins saw significantly reduced momentum and shorter lifespans. OTC data indicates that the historical wealth flow—from Bitcoin to Ethereum, then to blue chips, and finally to altcoins—has weakened substantially. ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) act as "walled gardens," providing sustained demand for large-cap assets but failing to naturally circulate liquidity to the broader market. Altcoin rallies in 2025 lasted an average of just 20 days, down from 60 days in 2024, reflecting a highly concentrated market. Wintermute outlines three potential catalysts to break this stagnation in 2026: 1. **Expanding Institutional Mandates**: Broader institutional adoption beyond current large-cap assets, as seen with early ETF filings for Solana (SOL) and XRP. 2. **The Wealth Effect**: A strong rally in BTC or ETH could generate spillover demand for altcoins, similar to 2024. 3. **Rotation from Equities**: Retail attention shifting back from equity markets (e.g., AI, rare earths, quantum computing) to crypto, though this is the least likely scenario. The future of the market depends on whether these catalysts can diffuse liquidity beyond a few major assets or if concentration persists. Understanding these dynamics will be key to successful strategies in 2026.

marsbit01/20 09:12

Wintermute: The Four-Year Cycle is Dead, How Will Crypto Break Through in 2026?

marsbit01/20 09:12

Bitcoin's Global Hash Rate Drops 15% from Peak: Are Miners Being Lured Away by AI?

Bitcoin's network hashrate has declined by approximately 15% from its October peak, falling to around 977 EH/s, as miners face prolonged financial strain. Profitability has been deteriorating for five consecutive months, with December’s average daily block reward per EH/s hitting a record low of $38,700—down 7% month-over-month and 32% year-over-year. Factors include post-halving reduced rewards, rising operational costs, and regulatory impacts, such as the shutdown of an estimated 1.3GW mining capacity in Xinjiang. Amid these challenges, many mining firms are pivoting to AI data center operations, leveraging their existing power infrastructure and low electricity costs (often 3–5 cents per kWh). Some companies, like IREN, are adopting cloud computing leasing models, while others offer power and data center leasing to major tech firms like Google and Microsoft. Despite short-term pressures, analysis from VanEck suggests that falling hashrates have historically correlated with positive Bitcoin price performance over the following 180 days, with average returns of +72% during periods of hashrate contraction. This may indicate a market cleansing phase that could lead to greater industry consolidation and longer-term stability.

marsbit01/20 07:08

Bitcoin's Global Hash Rate Drops 15% from Peak: Are Miners Being Lured Away by AI?

marsbit01/20 07:08

Industry Expert Predicts Complete Bitcoin Collapse – Here’s The Timeframe

Justin Bons, founder and CIO of CyberCapital, predicts Bitcoin could face a total collapse within the next 7 to 11 years. He argues that Bitcoin’s security model is fundamentally flawed due to its halving mechanism, which reduces block rewards for miners every four years. As rewards decline, miner revenue decreases, undermining the economic incentives that secure the network. Bons contends that rising hashrate does not equate to stronger security, as improved mining efficiency lowers the cost of potential attacks. He warns that within two to three halving cycles, the cost of executing a 51% attack could become economically viable, especially through double-spend attacks on exchanges. Without increasing Bitcoin’s fixed supply—a highly contentious change—the network may eventually become vulnerable to collapse.

bitcoinist01/18 10:02

Industry Expert Predicts Complete Bitcoin Collapse – Here’s The Timeframe

bitcoinist01/18 10:02

Bitcoin demand outpaces issuance by 6x – Is this a scarcity-driven expansion?

Institutional demand for Bitcoin is significantly outpacing new supply, with purchases in 2026 exceeding issuance by six times. This shift began in 2024, driven by ETF adoption, post-halving scarcity, and long-term institutional allocation. Such demand-supply imbalances have historically preceded major price expansions. Meanwhile, global M2 money supply growth is accelerating due to central bank policies and fiscal deficits, historically correlating with Bitcoin bull cycles. Sustained liquidity and ETF inflows are supporting Bitcoin's price near $96,000, reducing volatility and absorbing sell pressure. However, any reversal in money supply growth or institutional flows could weaken momentum. The market is structurally tighter, with institutional accumulation playing a critical role in price stability and future gains.

ambcrypto01/17 02:02

Bitcoin demand outpaces issuance by 6x – Is this a scarcity-driven expansion?

ambcrypto01/17 02:02

CLARITY Act Will End Crypto Winter as Bitcoin’s Four Year Cycle Ends, Says Bitwise Matt Hougan

The CLARITY Act could end the crypto winter and drive Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to new all-time highs, according to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management. He compares the legislation to Punxsutawney Phil, suggesting its passage would signal a market spring. The bipartisan bill aims to resolve regulatory uncertainty by clarifying the SEC's authority over securities and the CFTC's over digital commodities. It has cleared the House and is progressing in the Senate. Hougan also argues Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle may be over, as institutional adoption and regulatory progress now outweigh historical patterns, making fundamentals stronger than ever.

ccn.com01/13 11:53

CLARITY Act Will End Crypto Winter as Bitcoin’s Four Year Cycle Ends, Says Bitwise Matt Hougan