# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Halving

Bitcoin's Triple Resonance at the Bottom: The Ultimate Direction of Macroeconomics, On-Chain Data, and Miner Economics

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a significant correction, having fallen from its October 2025 all-time high of ~$126,000 to the $60,000-$70,000 range. This report analyzes the potential for a cycle bottom, arguing that traditional "four-year cycle" models are less reliable due to structural shifts like institutional adoption via ETFs and heightened sensitivity to macro liquidity. A multi-factor model identifies a high-confidence structural bottom zone between $52,000 and $58,000. This range represents a triple confluence of key support levels: the 200-week moving average (a historical bull/bear divider), the network's average realized price (the aggregate cost basis of all coins), and the shutdown price for a significant portion of the mining network (particularly Antminer S21 series miners). While a deeper fall to a "physical hard bottom" of ~$44,000 (the shutdown price for the most efficient miners) is possible in a worst-case scenario, it is considered unlikely barring a systemic financial crash. The analysis is set against the "Warsh Shock," a macro event where the new Fed Chair's hawkish stance on quantitative tightening has tightened liquidity, pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin. Despite the price drop, on-chain data shows short-term holders are capitulating, while long-term holders are accumulating. Furthermore, stablecoin reserves remain near all-time highs, indicating significant dry powder is waiting on the sidelines to re-enter the market. The recommended strategy is a pyramidal accumulation approach within the $52k-$58k value zone, with patience advised until macro conditions improve or key on-chain capitulation metrics are met.

marsbit02/12 09:28

BTC Halved, DAT Companies Face Billions in Paper Losses: Who is 'Selling to Stop the Bleeding'?

BTC's sharp decline from its $120,000 peak in late 2025 to around $60,000 has triggered significant unrealized losses for several Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, forcing some to sell off crypto holdings to manage financial strain. Cango Inc. sold 4,451 BTC (nearly half its holdings) to repay a BTC-collateralized loan, as mining costs exceeded Bitcoin's current price. Empery Digital, which bought BTC near the peak at around $117,000, sold portions of its holdings to fund share buybacks and debt repayment amid a 57% unrealized loss. Bitdeer shifted from a “HODL” strategy to regularly selling mined BTC to prioritize cash flow. Sequans Communications became the first DAT company to sell Bitcoin (970 BTC) to redeem convertible bonds, highlighting debt-driven sell-offs. ETHZilla, an Ethereum-focused DAT, sold over 32,000 ETH to manage leverage and transition toward real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. These moves underscore the vulnerability of highly leveraged DAT firms in a bear market. While large players may hold on, mid-tier and smaller companies face pressure to deleverage, signaling a market shift from narrative-driven expansion to financial survival and operational sustainability.

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:35

Cryptocurrency's Great Collapse: Veteran Yi Lihua Loses $700 Million in a Week

The cryptocurrency market experienced a historic crash, erasing all gains from the post-Trump rally, with Bitcoin recording its largest weekly drop in three years. Prominent Chinese crypto figure Yi Lihua suffered catastrophic losses, liquidating 400,000 Ethereum over six days for a total loss of approximately $780 million, becoming one of the most significant "whales" hunted during the downturn. The crash was triggered by a sharp drop in silver and gold prices, exacerbated by hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. This led to a broad sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Traditional investors, who had entered the market via Bitcoin ETFs approved in 2024, were quick to exit, causing substantial outflows from these funds. Analysts pointed out that this bull cycle, unlike previous ones driven by technological innovations like DeFi or smart contracts, was primarily fueled by narratives—such as Trump's pro-crypto policies and MicroStrategy's corporate treasury model—rather than fundamental advancements. This lack of substantive innovation made the market's high valuations particularly vulnerable when macro conditions shifted. The event is seen as a brutal end to the old "narrative-driven" era of crypto, forcing the market to seek real value anchors. While some funds have begun bottom-fishing, the short-term outlook remains bleak, with Bitcoin struggling to recover from its lows around $68,000.

marsbit02/09 06:08

Bitcoin prices fall: Will 2026 mirror BTC’s 2022 bear market?

Bitcoin's 2026 market is showing signs of a potential bear market similar to 2022, but with key differences. According to analysis, this post-halving cycle is the weakest on record, with a -6.3% ROI in 2025, starkly underperforming previous cycles. The rise of ETFs has dampened scarcity-led rallies, with institutional outflows capping upside potential. Unlike the 2018 and 2022 bear markets that followed massive rallies, the current 20% price drop is driven by loss realization rather than a post-euphoria correction. On-chain data, including UTXOs in Loss and negative Net Realized Profit/Loss, mirrors stress levels last seen in 2022, reinforcing the view that 2026 could be the softest post-halving bear market yet.

ambcrypto02/05 15:01

Bhutan Starts Selling Bitcoin Again: Arkham Flags $22.4 Million

bitcoinist02/05 12:02

Bhutan Sells $22.4M in Bitcoin as Sovereign Crypto Holdings Drop Over 70%

Bhutan's sovereign investment arm, Druk Holding Investments (DHI), has sold $22.4 million worth of Bitcoin in two transactions this week, as its overall crypto holdings have declined by over 70% from their peak of $1.14 billion. According to Arkham Intelligence, the country now holds approximately $405.61 million in crypto assets, including 5,700 BTC and 18.18 ETH. Bhutan began Bitcoin mining in 2019 using its hydroelectric power, earning over $765 million in revenue. However, mining activity has slowed significantly since the 2024 halving event, which doubled mining costs. It remains unclear whether these recent sales indicate a broader divestment strategy or routine portfolio management.

TheNewsCrypto02/05 07:39

‘Something went wrong’: Crypto CEO sounds alarm as Bitcoin slides

Bitcoin faced significant selling pressure on 4th February 2026, declining over 3% to trade near $76,246. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expressed surprise at the downturn, suggesting the market might be nearing a bottom. The crypto community reacted with mixed views, with some attributing the drop to Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle patterns. The correction aligns with historical post-halving trends, where early investors often take profits after periods of growth—Bitcoin had reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. Broader factors, including geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, have also contributed to the decline. Technically, the RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a possible short-term rebound toward $80,000. However, the MACD remains bearish. Analysts are divided: some predict a recovery, while others warn of a further drop to $56,000 if key support at $74,000 fails. Market direction may hinge on upcoming U.S. monetary policy decisions.

ambcrypto02/04 13:03

The 3 Best Cryptos to Get Rich by 2026 According to Claude AI

According to Claude AI, three cryptocurrencies are highlighted as potential top performers by 2026: XRP, HYPER, and TAO. The analysis is based on prevailing market narratives, not certainties. XRP's potential hinges on its resolution with the U.S. SEC and its utility for low-cost, fast cross-border payments. Its success depends on real-world adoption by financial institutions, not just speculation. HYPER is a Bitcoin Layer 2 solution promising faster transactions and smart contracts. Currently in presale, it is presented as a high-risk, high-volatility bet aimed at capturing the next wave of Bitcoin-based DeFi. TAO (Bittensor) focuses on decentralized AI, creating a marketplace where AI models compete and are rewarded. A recent halving event increased its scarcity. Its challenge is to break through key resistance levels to regain value. This is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk and can lead to significant losses. Always conduct your own research and only invest what you can afford to lose.

bitcoinist02/03 16:07

Quantum Threat Becomes Key Narrative, Privacy Coin Sector Defies Trend with Capital Siphon

Quantum Threat Emerges as Key Narrative, Privacy Coins Defy Market Downturn with Capital Inflow Privacy coins like ZEC, XMR, and DASH have surged significantly since September 2025, outperforming the broader crypto market. ZEC rose from around $50 to over $700 in two months, a 12x return, despite a post-halving correction. Monero (XMR) climbed from $300 to a record $800, bolstered by its decentralized nature and real-world usage, even after being delisted from 73 exchanges. Dash also saw a 7x increase, peaking at $150 before settling around $62. A major catalyst is growing concern over quantum computing threats to Bitcoin. Although experts believe quantum computers cannot yet break Bitcoin's ECDSA algorithm by 2026, fears have driven institutional and whale investors toward privacy coins, which use zero-knowledge proofs and ring signatures to resist quantum attacks. Reports indicate large-scale fund shifts from BTC to privacy assets, with ZEC and XMR attracting significant hedging interest. Market dynamics and high-profile endorsements, such as from Arthur Hayes, have amplified the trend. Additionally, privacy coins are being used to launder stolen funds, with one day seeing $282 million in mixed Bitcoin transactions. While Bitcoin market remains stagnant around $85,000, privacy coins continue to benefit from both quantum anxiety and practical demand for anonymity. The sector's future may depend on broader market recovery and macroeconomic factors, including Fed policy and equity performance.

比推01/29 12:53

Binance Founder Has ‘Strong Feelings’ For A Bitcoin Supercycle In 2026

Binance co-founder Changpeng 'CZ' Zhao expressed strong confidence in a Bitcoin supercycle occurring in 2026 during an interview at the World Economic Forum. A supercycle refers to a prolonged period of explosive growth driven by strong fundamentals rather than short-term speculation. While acknowledging Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle pattern, CZ agrees with the growing narrative that it may break this cycle in the current market. He revealed his personal strategy involves accumulating Bitcoin and BNB for long-term holding rather than active trading. The article also notes that Fidelity Labs' Parth Gargava shares a similar outlook, citing institutional ETF adoption, policy changes, and market maturation as key drivers. Bitcoin's price was around $89,460 at the time of writing.

bitcoinist01/24 15:44