# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Betting

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Betting", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Coinbase Hit With Nevada Lawsuit Over Illegal Betting Claims

Coinbase faces a civil lawsuit from the Nevada Gaming Control Board for offering event contracts that regulators claim constitute unlicensed sports betting. The state seeks a temporary restraining order and injunction to halt these operations, arguing they violate Nevada gaming laws. Coinbase contends that such contracts fall under federal CFTC jurisdiction, not state oversight, and has sued multiple states in response. The legal conflict highlights ongoing tension between state and federal regulators regarding prediction markets, as the CFTC considers new rules clarification. Similar enforcement actions are occurring in other states.

bitcoinist02/05 01:02

Coinbase Hit With Nevada Lawsuit Over Illegal Betting Claims

bitcoinist02/05 01:02

BLUFF Raises $21 Million to Power Betting Innovation

BLUFF, a next-generation betting and entertainment platform, has raised $21 million in a funding round led by blockchain fund 1kx, with participation from Makers Fund, Delphi Ventures, and sports investor Tristan Thompson. The platform, built by former executives from major betting companies like Stake and Bet365, focuses on speed, transparency, and social engagement for modern users. It has already processed over 125 million bets during its beta phase, attracting 600,000 sign-ups. BLUFF combines sports betting, prediction markets, and creator-led events, offering instant onboarding, real-time settlements, and a VIP program. The funds will support platform development and large-scale launch.

TheNewsCrypto02/03 09:57

BLUFF Raises $21 Million to Power Betting Innovation

TheNewsCrypto02/03 09:57

Can $12 Really Turn into 8300 Times? The Demise of a Polymarket Trading Myth

A user known as @ascetic0x on Polymarket claimed to have turned $12 into over $100,000—an 8,300x return—through a series of highly leveraged, all-in bets on Bitcoin price movements. The story went viral, attracting millions of views and widespread admiration. However, the narrative was soon challenged. Twitter user Moses alleged that @ascetic0x operated multiple accounts (Sybil farming), funding each with small amounts. Only the single successful account—which reached around $2,900—was publicized, while many others failed. Moses also accused the user of wash trading to artificially inflate results. In response, @ascetic0x denied the allegations, stating that the claims were false and part of a targeted harassment campaign. He admitted his strategy was extremely high-risk and advised others from copying it. The incident highlights the risks of blindly following influencers in speculative markets and serves as a reminder that extraordinary gains often come with untold or unverified backstories.

比推01/21 15:33

Can $12 Really Turn into 8300 Times? The Demise of a Polymarket Trading Myth

比推01/21 15:33

Predicting Market True and False Gambling Gods: Debunking the 8300x Miracle; Price Manipulation Nets $230,000

This article exposes two controversial cases on the prediction market platform Polymarket, highlighting issues of manipulation and deception. The first case involves a trader, ascetic, who claimed an 8,300x return—turning $12 into over $100,000 through 16 consecutive successful bets on Bitcoin's short-term volatility. However, he was accused by another trader, Moses, of operating a "Sybil farm"—using hundreds of accounts with small initial deposits to artificially create the illusion of a miraculous winning streak. Moses provided evidence of multiple accounts with similar trading patterns, suggesting the story was a fabricated marketing ploy. The second case details a more sophisticated manipulation: a trader known as a4385 exploited low liquidity during weekend trading to profit $233,000. He heavily bought "Yes" shares in a 15-minute XRP price prediction market, driving up the price of the shares. Then, just minutes before the market settled, he purchased $1 million worth of XRP on Binance, artificially inflating its price by 0.5% to ensure his Polymarket bet would win. After settlement, he quickly sold the XRP. This maneuver, with a minimal cost of around $6,200 in fees and slippage, effectively drained the liquidity from automated trading bots on Polymarket, one of which lost its entire annual profit of $160,000. The article concludes by warning users to be cautious and discerning, as not all spectacular gains are genuine, and platform rules can be exploited for manipulation.

Odaily星球日报01/19 05:03

Predicting Market True and False Gambling Gods: Debunking the 8300x Miracle; Price Manipulation Nets $230,000

Odaily星球日报01/19 05:03

Prediction Markets Don't Predict Truth, They Only Reward Those Who Bet Correctly

The article challenges the core narrative surrounding prediction markets, arguing they do not discover "truth" but merely reward those who bet correctly on future outcomes. It uses two key examples to illustrate this: the profitable bet on Venezuelan President Maduro's arrest, which suggests markets can monetize insider information rather than aggregate public knowledge, and the "Zelensky suit" market, where the outcome was manipulated by large token holders, revealing a failure of governance incentives. The piece contends that as prediction markets grow, attracting Wall Street capital and handling billions in volume, they face increased regulatory scrutiny. This is not due to inaccuracy, but because their accuracy can stem from problematic sources like privileged access. The author asserts that the fundamental activity is simply betting on narratives, and that dressing it up as a superior form of truth-discovery creates unrealistic expectations and philosophical dilemmas. The conclusion is that recognizing prediction markets as high-stakes betting tools, rather than epistemological engines, would lead to healthier development, clearer regulations, and more honest design.

marsbit01/18 06:38

Prediction Markets Don't Predict Truth, They Only Reward Those Who Bet Correctly

marsbit01/18 06:38

Who is Placing Counterintuitive Bets in Prediction Markets?

Who Bets Against Common Sense in Prediction Markets? This article explores the counterintuitive players who provide liquidity by betting "Yes" on seemingly improbable events on prediction markets like Polymarket. Contrary to appearing irrational, these participants are often driven by calculated strategies. Three key groups are identified: 1. **The Lottery Players:** These individuals focus on high odds, betting small amounts for a potentially large payoff. They capitalize on the small but non-zero chance of a black swan event or a market settlement error, making such high-risk, high-reward bets a rational part of a diversified strategy. 2. **Bots:** Automated trading algorithms are significant liquidity providers. They quickly engage in new markets, scooping up ultra-cheap "Yes" shares and then placing slightly higher sell orders to profit from subsequent buyers (like lottery players or other bots). Some bots also trade to generate volume, potentially aiming to qualify for future airdrops. 3. **The Prediction Platforms:** Polymarket itself incentivizes liquidity through programs like maker incentives and holding rewards (e.g., a 4% APY for holding shares in specific markets). These financial incentives make providing liquidity on unlikely outcomes attractive, as rewards can offset potential losses or enhance gains, contributing significantly to market depth and volume. The analysis concludes that those betting against the consensus are not merely "stupid" but are often rational actors employing specific strategies to profit, with the platform's own incentive structures playing a major role in fueling this activity.

Odaily星球日报01/08 02:57

Who is Placing Counterintuitive Bets in Prediction Markets?

Odaily星球日报01/08 02:57

‘Yes’ shares surged before the news – Polymarket’s Maduro warning decoded

Hours before the public announcement of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's arrest, three digital wallets on the prediction market Polymarket placed high-risk bets on his removal from power, collectively profiting $630,484. One wallet turned $34,000 into $410,000—a 1,100% return. The suspicious timing, with trades executed just before a U.S. military operation, has raised concerns in Washington about insider information leaks via prediction markets. This prompted U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres to introduce a bill banning federal officials from betting on events they might influence. Meanwhile, crypto markets showed resilience, with Bitcoin briefly dipping before recovering above $91,000. The incident underscores how decentralized platforms could be exploited for informed, high-stakes trading.

ambcrypto01/05 07:01

‘Yes’ shares surged before the news – Polymarket’s Maduro warning decoded

ambcrypto01/05 07:01

They Missed $2 Million Because Maduro Wasn't Supposed to Be Home for the New Year

On the early morning of January 3, 2026, US special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at his residence and extradited him to the United States. Prior to the raid, several anonymous accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket placed large bets on the highly unlikely outcome that Maduro would lose power before January 31, 2026, turning a significant profit once the operation succeeded. Three new wallets, with no prior history, collectively gained over $600,000, suggesting possible insider trading based on confidential intelligence. Further analysis revealed that the operation was originally scheduled for December 29, 2025, but was delayed due to severe weather. Two other traders who had placed early large bets on Maduro’s removal in 2025 suffered major losses when the operation was postponed. However, after learning the raid was rescheduled for January 3, they placed new bets and managed to recover some profits. One trader, Chiwawas, missed out on potential earnings of $750,000 due to the delay. The incident highlights how Polymarket has become a platform where individuals with privileged information can exploit timing and knowledge gaps for financial gain.

marsbit01/04 08:40

They Missed $2 Million Because Maduro Wasn't Supposed to Be Home for the New Year

marsbit01/04 08:40

They Knew the TGA Game of the Year Winner in Advance and Made Tens of Thousands of Dollars

Summary: The 2025 TGA (The Game Awards) ceremony concluded with the indie game "Light & Shadow: Expedition 33" making history by winning both "Best Independent Game" and the coveted "Game of the Year (GOTY)" award, breaking a long-standing TGA curse. Prior to the event, the prediction market platform Polymarket had already listed the topic, with "Light & Shadow's" probability of winning GOTY consistently above 80% for over a month. Several traders, including users DieselDiesel, trumpnogo, and kasae, placed unusually large, concentrated bets on this outcome weeks in advance, a move that would have resulted in massive losses if wrong. Their bets appeared to be "all-in" convictions rather than calculated risks. Just three hours before the GOTY announcement, after the "Best Indie" award was given to the same game, a mysterious user (bobo9997) deposited $10,000 and bet it all on "Yes" for "Light & Shadow" winning GOTY at a price of $0.98 per share—a bet that would yield less than $200 in profit if correct. The final award confirmed the predictions. The early traders realized significant profits, with their winnings from this single event representing a large percentage of their total historical earnings on the platform (e.g., 176% for DieselDiesel). The article suggests these traders likely had insider knowledge of the results, using the prediction market as a anonymous, low-risk method to monetize their confidential information, turning a guaranteed outcome into thousands of dollars with virtually no risk.

marsbit12/12 07:40

They Knew the TGA Game of the Year Winner in Advance and Made Tens of Thousands of Dollars

marsbit12/12 07:40

Crypto Market Prices the Verdict: $1.8 Billion Bet on Do Kwon's Sentencing Outcome

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing an extraordinary $1.8 billion in futures trading volume for LUNA and LUNA2 tokens, despite their lack of fundamental value. This surge in speculative activity is directly tied to the upcoming sentencing hearing of Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon in a New York federal court on December 11th. Prosecutors are seeking a 12-year prison sentence for Kwon’s role in the $40 billion Terra-LUNA collapse, while his defense team is arguing for a 5-year term. This 7-year discrepancy has created a high-stakes betting environment. The market is characterized by extreme divergence, with a high volume of short positions (indicated by negative funding rates) and a powerful counter-force of buyers attempting to squeeze those shorts. The article argues that the current LUNA traders are not the original victims of the crash but are now primarily event-driven speculators, quantitative funds, and opportunistic traders. For them, LUNA has been transformed from a failed project into a pure "legal derivative," a volatile instrument whose price is entirely driven by the legal outcome of Kwon's case, devoid of any fundamental anchor. The author concludes that regardless of the sentencing outcome—whether a harsh or light sentence—the event's conclusion will likely cause LUNA's price to collapse. A harsh sentence would reaffirm its zero fundamental value, while a light sentence would trigger a "sell the news" event. This situation exemplifies the crypto market's cold, hyper-efficient ability to price and monetize anything, including justice and a person's freedom, reducing moral judgment to mere noise against the pursuit of volatility and profit.

比推12/10 14:17

Crypto Market Prices the Verdict: $1.8 Billion Bet on Do Kwon's Sentencing Outcome