# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Betting

Crypto Betting Giant Polymarket Faces Backlash After Users Harass A Reporter

bitcoinist03/17 19:02

Still Not Enough? Prediction Market Giants Set Sights on Payments and AI

Prediction market giants Kalshi and Polymarket are aggressively expanding their user base and influence, moving beyond traditional betting sector. During the recent Oscars, the two platforms saw over $100 million in bets, a significant jump from the previous year. Kalshi is focusing on payment integration, partnering with Block’s Cash App to simplify funding and tap into its 59 million monthly active users. This move aims to attract new users from an established financial platform. Polymarket, on the other hand, is targeting AI agents as potential users. After resuming U.S. operations, it has processed $750 million in nominal trading volume. It now supports AI Agent trading through integrations like Alchemy’s AgentCard and its own CLI tool, enabling 24/7 automated trading. This positions Polymarket at the forefront of AI-driven prediction markets. A Paradigm survey notes that 36% of U.S. voters have used prediction markets, with stronger adoption among younger and non-white demographics. Both platforms are exploring new growth avenues—Kalshi through payment accessibility and Polymarket through AI automation—as they compete for a larger share of the evolving market.

marsbit03/16 13:46

Polymarket gives Ethereum 57% flip chance – Is crypto community nervous?

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, is currently giving Ethereum a 57% chance of "flipping" Bitcoin in market capitalization, according to a betting contract. This event, often referred to as "The Flippening," is a highly anticipated and speculative topic within the cryptocurrency community. The significant probability indicated by the market suggests that a substantial number of traders are betting on Ethereum's potential to surpass Bitcoin as the largest crypto asset by market cap. This data point serves as a key indicator of market sentiment, prompting discussions on whether this prospect is making the broader crypto community nervous or optimistic about the shifting dynamics at the top of the cryptocurrency rankings.

ambcrypto03/16 06:55

Deconstructing the Capital Game of Public Chain Pharos: A $950 Million Valuation Propped Up by Photovoltaic and Other Assets, A Shell Transaction Under Layers of Betting?

The article investigates the recent $247.3 million investment by Hong Kong-listed GCL New Energy into the Layer 1 blockchain project Pharos at a $950 million valuation. It reveals the deal is not a straightforward investment but a complex, multi-stage transaction bound by stringent performance milestones. The core of the agreement is a set of mutual, conditional investments. Pharos must first purchase up to $1.5 billion HKD worth of GCL shares. However, GCL's reciprocal investment in Pharos tokens is contingent upon a series of strict, performance-based vesting conditions. The entire deal is split into five tranches, each unlocking only if the Pharos token lists on an exchange without falling below its issue price and maintains a high fully diluted valuation (FDV) over successive three-month periods. If any condition fails, the entire agreement can be terminated. The article questions the legitimacy of the $950 million valuation, which was calculated based on a purported $250 million in Total Value Locked (TVL). Notably, over half of this TVL is claimed to be from real-world assets (RWA), specifically photovoltaic and power station assets linked to GCL—a highly unconventional method for valuing a Layer 1 blockchain. Furthermore, the mainnet is not yet live, and the TVL figure is unverified by independent data platforms. The author suggests the deal is a "capital game" designed to boost GCL's stock price, which saw suspicious pre-announcement surges, and to create hype for the upcoming Pharos token launch, ultimately passing the risk onto the market and future investors.

marsbit03/15 05:49

Oscar Awards Preview: Who Are the Big Players in Prediction Markets Betting On?

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 15, 2026, and prediction markets on Polymarket are offering insights into potential winners. With over $29 million in total trading volume, the markets indicate "One Battle After Another" is the frontrunner for Best Picture with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of major bettors shows one address holding a significant "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate. In the Best Actor category, Michael B. Jordan leads with a 57% chance, overtaking Timothée Chalamet (34%), who was the favorite until recently. Key addresses show mixed strategies, with one top bettor on Jordan having a negative historical profit. The Best Director and Best Actress categories appear to be near-certainties. Paul Thomas Anderson holds a 94% probability for Best Director, and Jessie Buckley has a 97% chance for Best Actress, making them potential "sure bets" or "arbitrage plays." Other notable categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads Best Cinematography (73%), and "Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite for Best Original Screenplay (96%). The data provides a unique, market-driven perspective on the upcoming Oscars.

marsbit03/12 02:52

Oscars Preview: Who Are the Big Players in Prediction Markets Betting On?

"Oscar Predictions 2026: Where Are the Prediction Market Whales Placing Their Bets?" As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, the crypto prediction market Polymarket is offering its own forecasts on the winners, with significant trading volume indicating where large bettors, or "whales," are placing their capital. In the high-stakes Best Picture category, "One Battle After Another" is the current frontrunner with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of top wallets shows one address holds a substantial "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate. The Best Actor race has seen a major shift; Timothée Chalamet was previously the favorite with an 80% probability, but Michael B. Jordan has now surged ahead to a 57% chance. Notably, the top wallet betting "YES" on Jordan has a negative historical profit, while a major "NO" bettor on Chalamet has profited over $2.82 million. Several categories appear to be near-certain "sure bets" or "savings plans." Paul Thomas Anderson is the overwhelming favorite for Best Director with a 91% probability. For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley leads with a 97% chance. "Sinners" also dominates Best Original Screenplay with a 96% probability. Other closely watched categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads in Best Cinematography with a 73% probability.

Odaily星球日报03/12 02:44

Prediction Market Polymarket Faces Scrutiny After Andrew Tate X Bet Profits

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, is under scrutiny after on-chain analysts identified at least seven coordinated accounts that profited approximately $52,000 from betting on influencer Andrew Tate's posting activity on X. The markets allowed users to wager on the number of posts Tate would make within a specific period. Researchers highlighted that the low liquidity in these markets made them susceptible to manipulation. The incident has sparked broader discussions about fairness and transparency in decentralized prediction markets, particularly when participants may have insider knowledge or the ability to influence the outcomes they are betting on. While proponents argue blockchain transparency helps identify suspicious activity, critics warn of inherent conflicts of interest, especially in markets based on quantifiable actions like social media engagement.

TheNewsCrypto03/11 13:23

Bubblemaps trace Polymarket accounts linked to Iran strike bets

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has uncovered a network of connected wallets that profited from highly accurate bets on U.S. and Israeli military strikes involving Iran on the prediction market Polymarket. The investigation identified multiple accounts, including one named “nothingeverhappens911,” which moved profits off-platform and was linked via a shared Binance deposit to another account called “Skoobidoobnj.” This second account reportedly earned around $100,000 from bets placed just before strikes on 13 June and 21 June 2025. Two additional connected accounts made approximately $65,000 and $10,000 from bets on a 28 February U.S. strike and a 13 June Israeli operation, respectively. In total, four accounts generated about $240,000 from these trades. These findings follow earlier reports of six wallets making $1.2 million from the 28 February strike, raising concerns about potential use of non-public information. The activity has intensified scrutiny over whether prediction markets incentivize trading on privileged geopolitical knowledge.

ambcrypto03/05 17:39

Kalshi and Polymarket Face Scrutiny as Lawmakers Target Death-Related Betting Markets

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are under scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers after users placed large bets on events connected to U.S. strikes on Iran, including contracts related to the potential death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Over $529 million was traded on related Polymarket contracts. Six Democratic senators have urged the CFTC to ban such death-related prediction contracts, citing ethical and national security risks. Kalshi’s CEO defended the platform, though the company later admitted to unclear contract wording and issued refunds. Polymarket, which operates offshore with fewer regulations, saw some users profit $1 million from well-timed bets. The situation highlights ongoing regulatory challenges in the prediction market industry.

TheNewsCrypto03/02 14:28

Pricing the Death of Iran's Leader: Where Are the Ethical Boundaries of Prediction Markets?

The article discusses the ethical boundaries of prediction markets, triggered by the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in a military strike. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket had active markets on whether Khamenei would leave office. Kalshi’s CEO opposed profiting from death, refunded fees, and settled trades at pre-death prices to prevent incentivizing harm. This sparked debate: some argue such markets could encourage violence, while others claim it undermines market fairness and hedging value. U.S. senators had previously urged regulators to ban death-related contracts, citing risks of incentivizing real-world harm. The controversy highlights the tension between free market principles and social responsibility in prediction markets.

Odaily星球日报03/02 10:12