Blockworks: Strategy 2026 Bitcoin Accumulation Logic Has Changed

Author: Blockworks

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Guide: Strategy holds nearly 680,000 Bitcoins, but its financing model is quietly shifting. From zero-coupon convertible bonds in 2024 to high-cost preferred shares and dilutive stock issuances in 2026, the Bitcoin content per share is being diluted. This article breaks down the actual impact of this structural change on the BTC price—notably, its buying will shift from continuous to intermittent.

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor | DAS 2025 New York Summit, Photo: Mike Lawrence for Blockworks

Strategy has re-emerged as a visible treasury buyer in the Bitcoin market, but the financing context is vastly different compared to 2024-2025.

At the end of December last year, Strategy completed a round of financing but barely deployed the funds into Bitcoin. From December 29 to 31, the company sold 1,255,911 MSTR, raising a net $195.9 million, yet only bought 3 Bitcoins. Deployment resumed in January: from January 1 to 4, it sold another 735,000 shares, raising a net $116.3 million, and bought 1,283 Bitcoins at an average price of $90,391 per coin, spending $116 million. Total holdings thus rose to 673,783 Bitcoins.

A more critical signal lies in the change in financing structure. From 2024 to early 2025, Strategy financed through low-cost convertible bonds—cash coupons as low as 0.625% to 2.25%, and later issued multiple zero-coupon convertible bonds. This strategy worked best when MSTR traded at a premium to Bitcoin NAV (mNAV > 1), as the equity option value itself was attractive.

Over a longer time frame, the marginal buying in 2025 was essentially a two-horse race: spot ETFs and Strategy. Looking at the cumulative accumulation chart, Strategy was on par with ETF inflows for a significant portion of the year, meaning its influence on price at certain stages was comparable to that of the ETF group.

Conditions in 2026 are significantly weaker. As mNAV narrows, the financing method has shifted to preferred shares with double-digit costs and dilutive ATM common stock offerings. It is difficult for Strategy to continue large-scale purchases without worsening the Bitcoin content per share. Strategy remains a barometer of market sentiment, but its buying pressure will be more moderate and intermittent. ETF fund flows and overall crypto market risk appetite will become more reliable price determinants.