The market’s buzzing again, debating whether crypto has truly bottomed.
Technically, since Bitcoin’s [BTC] early February low of $60k, it’s been putting in three higher lows and three lower highs. The latest higher low landed around $75k on the 16th of March, showing that bulls are still defending key levels and trying to hold the market steady.
That said, on-chain signals are flashing caution. The latest Glassnode report shows Bitcoin’s 24-hour SMA of Net Realized P&L spiking to $17 million/hr before price lost steam and slipped back under $70k. In simple terms, profit-taking is eating into upside momentum.
What’s more, the report points to compressing demand depth, meaning the market can’t really handle even moderate profit-taking without feeling the pressure. A clear example? Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $300 million in outflows over the past three days.
Put it together, and BTC’s $70k level is acting more like a supply zone. Investors are taking profits, treating it like a local top, and squeezing gains before momentum swings back to risk-off. With demand thin, bulls are under pressure, and upside is limited until buyers step back in.
The bigger picture? Very few investors see this as a setup for a smooth run higher. Instead, a potential retrace toward $50k is on the table, especially since most of the long-side liquidity is clustered at high-risk levels. That means if selling picks up, we could see cascading liquidations, amplifying downward pressure.
And here’s the wildcard: What happens if a 13-year-old dormant Bitcoin whale suddenly wakes up amid all this volatility?
Could $148M in profits turn the Bitcoin market around?
A dormant whale waking up in an already volatile market is enough to spark a frenzy.
Notably, that’s exactly what happened with a wallet that woke up after 13 years of dormancy and moved out 0.00079 BTC. To put it in perspective, this whale originally received 2,100 BTC when Bitcoin was just $6.59. Fast forward to today, and that stash is sitting on $148 million in profit, a jaw-dropping 10,710× return.
Interestingly, the frenzy didn’t spiral into panic. Instead, analysts seemed to respect the whale’s conviction, a reminder that long-term patience in Bitcoin can pay off handsomely. Against this backdrop, the “timing” of the move looks strategic, almost like a deliberate statement rather than a rushed reaction.
Looking at the charts, Bitcoin’s supply in loss is sitting around 41%, meaning roughly 8.3 million BTC is underwater. Combine that with the bearish setup around BTC’s $70k level, and a break of this key zone could easily trigger capitulation risks. In short, with the bottom still uncertain, conviction could quickly fade.
In this context, the market reaction to the dormant Bitcoin whale starts to matter.
From a HODLing perspective, the whale’s 10k%+ ROI, now showing roughly $148 million in profit, is far beyond what gold would have delivered. The same position in gold would have yielded just under a 3× return, or about $6.2 million.
Against this backdrop, the BTC whale move feels more like a reminder of why HODLing Bitcoin pays off. With the market still in a bearish setup, it shows that patience can outweigh panic, lining up perfectly with the market’s timing.
Final Summary
- With 41% of BTC supply underwater and heavy outflows from ETFs, the $70k level is acting like a supply zone, making the market vulnerable to potential liquidation risks.
- A 13-year dormant Bitcoin whale woke up, moving a tiny amount of BTC, but its 10k%+ ROI reminds investors why patience in Bitcoin can pay off.
