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Breaking Downward: Where Is Bitcoin's Bottom? How to Operate Now?

Bitcoin has broken down below the key $80,600 support, confirming a weekly C-wave decline as anticipated. The current bearish trend is part of an A-B-C correction structure that began after the $126,200 high in October 2025. Technical analysis suggests further downside potential, with key support levels at $74,500–$75,200 (Fibonacci 50% retracement and April 2025 low), $69,000–$72,500 (Fibonacci 61.8% level), and $64,500–$65,500. However, improved liquidity and positive policy expectations may limit severe declines, potentially leading to a prolonged consolidation. Short-term trading using proprietary momentum and spread models yielded a 5.1% profit last week by shorting the rebound at ~$89,268 and covering near $84,000. Current weekly and daily indicators show strong bearish momentum with no clear bottom signal yet. This week, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a range, with resistance at $80,000–$80,600 and $84,000–$86,500. Support is at $74,500–$75,200. Trading strategies recommend maintaining 60% short exposure for medium-term and using 30% capital for short-term scalping based on model signals. Two scenarios are outlined: shorting rebounds near $80,600 (Scheme A) or breaking below $75,200 (Scheme B), both with strict 1.5% stop-loss and dynamic profit protection rules.

Odaily星球日报02/02 06:58

The DAO Returns After a Decade, Establishes a $220 Million Security Fund

The DAO, the record-breaking 2016 Ethereum crowdfunding project that led to a major hack and the Ethereum Classic split, is making a symbolic return a decade later. Over 75,109 ETH (worth approximately $220 million) from the incident’s unresolved funds will be used to establish The DAO Security Fund. This fund, managed by a multisig group including key figures like Vitalik Buterin and Taylor Monahan, will focus entirely on enhancing Ethereum’s security. The majority of the ETH (around 69,420) will be staked to create a perpetual endowment, with staking yields and remaining assets funding security efforts such as smart contract audits, core protocol upgrades, and wallet safety improvements. While the initiative aims to turn a historic failure into long-term ecosystem protection, it remains controversial. Questions persist around the legitimacy of repurposing what some consider original token holders' assets and the degree of decentralization in the fund’s governance. Nonetheless, The DAO’s evolution reflects Ethereum’s maturation and the resilience of its community.

marsbit02/02 06:38

Retail Investors Are Not the Noise of the Market, But the Main Melody

The article challenges the conventional hierarchy of market difficulty, arguing that retail-driven markets like Crypto and meme stocks, often dismissed as "simple," actually offer higher returns due to their predictable emotional dynamics, not despite them. The author’s key shift was moving from asking "How much expertise does this market require?" to "What determines price in this market?" In retail-dominated markets, price is not set by fundamentals but by collective sentiment. This isn't a flaw but the core mechanism—retailers are not market "noise" but the main driver, creating powerful feedback loops of buying (FOMO) and selling (panic) known as reflexivity. Unlike institutional markets (e.g., U.S. stocks) where valuation models and arbitrage limit moves,散户 markets lack these anchors, allowing emotions to drive massive, predictable cycles: from ignorance and curiosity to FOMO,狂热, panic, and despair. This emotional trajectory is more reliable than forecasting fundamentals. Consequently, these high-volatility markets offer significant opportunities on both the long side (as sentiment turns positive) and the short side (after peak euphoria). The playing field is level; success depends on understanding human psychology, not deep research or insider information. The ultimate insight is to stop seeking "value" and start following the predictable certainty of crowd sentiment.

marsbit02/02 06:38

Delphi Digital Co-founder: Why Am I Bullish on the Cryptocurrency Market Outlook?

Delphi Digital co-founder Tommy outlines five key reasons for his bullish outlook on cryptocurrencies. He argues that if Trump influences the Fed to lower interest rates (especially with Truflation showing 1.2% inflation could accelerate capital rotation from low-risk assets like T-bills into crypto. The surge in gold and silver reflects deeper concerns about dollar debasement and fiscal health, which ultimately benefits crypto as a hedge. He also being optimistic about AI, believes much of the positive news is already priced in, and a shift in focus toward workflows and cost-effective local AI models may reduce hype for centralized AI stocks, freeing up liquidity for crypto. Additionally, he notes declining investor interest in quantum computing stocks, reducing a perceived threat to crypto. Finally, potential U.S. regulatory clarity, including the Clarity Act and supportive moves from the SEC and CFTC under a potential Trump administration, could provide significant tailwinds.

marsbit02/02 06:24

Bitcoin Continues to Plunge, Focus on Whether MSTR Is Forced to Sell

Bitcoin is undergoing a severe stress test as its price falls below key psychological levels, approaching the cost basis of major institutional holders like MicroStrategy. The cryptocurrency dropped below $80,000 over the weekend, hitting its lowest point since April 7, 2025, and has declined over 30% recently amid thin liquidity. Despite the sell-off, MicroStrategy’s Executive Chairman Michael Saylor signaled intentions to continue accumulating Bitcoin, even as the company raised the dividend on its perpetual preferred shares to 11.25% to attract capital. However, analysts warn that high dividend costs could strain cash flow if Bitcoin’s price remains stagnant or falls below its cost basis. The market is highly institutionalized, with MicroStrategy and 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs holding approximately 10% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. These institutions face combined unrealized losses of around $7 billion, with an average acquisition cost of $85,360 per Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 consecutive days, exacerbating downward pressure. MicroStrategy holds 712,647 Bitcoin at an average cost of $76,037. With Bitcoin hovering near $78,000, its unrealized gains have narrowed to less than 3%. The company’s aggressive financing strategies, including high-yield debt, highlight both its commitment and the risks of its Bitcoin-centric strategy. Macro strategist Jim Bianco notes that Bitcoin faces a "narrative exhaustion," as the "institutional adoption" story has been fully priced and may now be reversing. Without new sustained buying interest, institutional holdings—once a support—could become a major source of selling pressure. The key question is where the next wave of buyers will emerge at current price levels.

比推02/02 05:57

Wintermute Ventures: Our 6 Major Predictions for Digital Assets in 2026

比推02/02 05:54

Ethereum slips to $2.2K as ‘extreme fear’ hits – Why THIS level decides next bull run

Why THIS level decides next bull run.

Ambcrypto02/02 05:32

Behind the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee's Passage of the CLARITY Act Lies a Dim Prospect

The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee narrowly passed the *CLARITY Act* in January 2026 with a 12–11 partisan split. The bill aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, defining "digital commodities" and granting the CFTC authority to oversee spot markets. It includes provisions for exchange registration, investor protections, and safeguards for software developers. Despite initial bipartisan collaboration, negotiations broke down abruptly in early 2026. Democrats opposed the final version, citing insufficient ethics rules to prevent political figures—including former President Trump—from profiting from cryptocurrency activities. They also raised concerns about DeFi regulation and consumer protections. Although the committee’s approval is a procedural step, the bill faces significant hurdles. It requires 60 votes to pass the Senate, necessitating Democratic support, which remains unlikely without compromises on ethics and oversight. Further delays are expected due to stalled companion legislation in the Senate Banking Committee and the upcoming midterm elections, which could shift political dynamics and jeopardize the bill’s prospects.

marsbit02/02 04:49

Implementation of CARF: Will Chinese Residents Holding Crypto Assets Be Subject to Tax Recovery?

The implementation of the Common Reporting Standard for Crypto-Assets (CARF) enhances the ability of tax authorities globally to obtain information on overseas crypto asset holdings. While CARF itself does not create new tax rules, it enables automatic exchange of information, allowing jurisdictions to identify unreported crypto asset income earned by their tax residents. In countries that have adopted CARF, such as the UK, tax authorities can cross-reference data from crypto service providers with tax filings and may pursue back taxes and penalties for non-compliance. Although China has not yet joined CARF, reducing the immediate risk of automatic information sharing, risks arise when crypto assets are converted into fiat currency. China participates in the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), through which financial account information—including proceeds from crypto conversions—may be shared with Chinese tax authorities. Additionally, bilateral tax treaties and investigative cooperation allow for case-by-case information exchange, meaning significant tax evasion or illicit transactions could still be detected and reported.

marsbit02/02 04:48