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Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity Relief Is Coming

The article "Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity is Coming" by Raoul Pal addresses the current downturn in the crypto market, arguing it is not a sign of the industry's demise but a temporary liquidity crisis. Pal refutes the narrative that crypto has permanently decoupled from other assets by showing that Bitcoin's price chart is nearly identical to that of the SaaS index, indicating a shared, external factor: a shortage of U.S. dollar liquidity. He explains this was caused by a combination of events, including the draining of the Reverse Repo facility, the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA) without monetary offset, and government shutdowns. This liquidity drain negatively impacted risk assets like crypto and tech stocks, while gold absorbed the marginal liquidity. The key takeaway is that this period of illiquidity is ending. The impending resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is seen as the final obstacle. Once cleared, a significant injection of liquidity is expected from sources like the easing of the SLR rule, TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, and eventual rate cuts. Pal, alongside analysis from Stanley Druckenmiller, suggests the new Fed leadership under a potential Warsh chairmanship would be focused on cutting rates to keep the economy hot, aligning with a pro-growth strategy from the administration. The author admits a mistake in not prioritizing U.S. liquidity as the dominant short-term driver over global liquidity but remains highly bullish on the long-term cycle into 2026. The core advice for investors is patience, emphasizing that in a full cycle, time is more important than price. The message is clear: the liquidity cavalry is on its way.

marsbit02/02 03:40

Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity Relief Is Coming

marsbit02/02 03:40

Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity Relief Is Coming

The article "False Narratives....and Other Thoughts" by Raoul Pal addresses the current downturn in the crypto market, arguing against the mainstream narrative that the crypto cycle is over. Pal explains that the recent price decline in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is not an isolated event but is correlated with a similar drop in SaaS stocks, as shown by comparative charts. He identifies the root cause as a temporary liquidity squeeze in the U.S. financial system, exacerbated by government shutdowns, TGA (Treasury General Account) rebuilding without monetary offset, and gold absorbing marginal liquidity that would otherwise support risk assets like crypto. Pal emphasizes that this liquidity crunch is temporary. He anticipates a resolution to the government shutdown soon, which will remove the last major obstacle to liquidity recovery. Following this, he expects a return of liquidity through measures such as eSLR adjustments, TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, and eventual rate cuts. He advises investors to be patient, stressing that in a full market cycle, time is more critical than price movements. The article also corrects a misperception about potential Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, arguing he is not a hawk and would likely support rate cuts aligned with strategies to boost economic growth. Despite current market conditions, Pal remains highly optimistic about the crypto market's prospects through 2026, driven by anticipated pro-growth policies.

Odaily星球日报02/02 03:31

Is Crypto Over? Don't Give Up, Liquidity Relief Is Coming

Odaily星球日报02/02 03:31

Old Case Resurfaces: The 1011 Crash Sparks a Mixed Battle of Public Opinion Between Exchanges and Ecosystems

"Old Case Resurfaces: The 1011 Crash Sparks a Public Opinion Battle Between Exchanges and Ecosystems" Over the weekend, a wave of criticism targeting Binance reignited on X (formerly Twitter), centered on revisiting the "1011 Event" from October 11, 2023. The controversy was sparked by ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, who suggested in an interview that the crypto market's recent stagnation was an aftershock of a $28 billion leverage liquidation event caused by a system glitch on Binance. The 1011 Event was a major market crash where the global crypto market lost over $500 billion in value, with leverage liquidations surpassing $19 billion. Critics point to a liquidity anomaly on Binance during the crash, which triggered its Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) mechanism and caused massive, cascading liquidations. The exchange's high-yield USDe promotion was also cited as a contributing risk factor. Binance later paid approximately $283 million in compensation to affected users but maintained the sell-off was driven by broader market conditions. The criticism has evolved into a broader industry debate. A key figure in the accusatory camp is Leonidas, a founder in the Bitcoin Ordinals ecosystem, who has long criticized Binance's listing practices, alleging the exchange demands high token allocation fees from projects. More significantly, OKX founder Star (Xu Mingxing) entered the fray, arguing the 1011 crash fundamentally altered the market's microstructure. He claimed Binance's USDe promotion, which offered 12% APY and was treated as collateral, introduced massive systemic risk akin to a "tokenized hedge fund," not a stablecoin. The conflict also revealed underlying public chain competition. CZ unfollowed Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko (Toly) after he shared Xu's critical post, hinting at the rivalry between Binance's BSC chain and Solana for meme coin liquidity. In Binance's defense, some analysts offered more neutral perspectives. Trader Benson and Dragonfly's Haseeb Qureshi argued that while Binance had some responsibility, the "USDe caused the crash" narrative doesn't align with the timeline, as the market bottomed before USDe depegged on Binance. They suggested a confluence of factors—including Trump's tariff comments, API issues preventing market makers from hedging, and a lack of circuit breakers—led to the crash. Amid the FUD, Binance announced it would convert the assets in its $1 billion SAFU insurance fund from stablecoins to Bitcoin. The article concludes that the intense scrutiny on Binance stems from its dominant size, meaning any structural industry problem will manifest there first. The core of the debate is not just assigning blame for one event, but whether the leading exchange will assume a higher responsibility for market stability.

marsbit02/02 03:20

Old Case Resurfaces: The 1011 Crash Sparks a Mixed Battle of Public Opinion Between Exchanges and Ecosystems

marsbit02/02 03:20

Old Case Resurfaces: The 1011 Crash Sparks a Mixed Battle of Public Opinion Between Exchanges and Ecosystems

A wave of criticism targeting Binance resurfaced on social media, reignited by ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood's comments blaming a past "system glitch" at the exchange for the crypto market's prolonged stagnation. She referred to the October 11th ("1011") event, a major market crash that saw over $190B in liquidations, as a key reason crypto wasn't rallying with other assets. Binance co-founder He Yi quickly countered, suggesting Wood, a Coinbase investor, was not a user and misinformed. The 1011 event itself was a "black swan" where a sharp market downturn was exacerbated by a liquidity anomaly on Binance, triggering its Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) mechanism and causing massive, cascading liquidations. Binance later paid $283M in compensation but maintained the sell-off was market-driven. The criticism evolved into a broader industry debate. Key figures leading the charge included Leonidas, a Bitcoin Ordinals proponent, who accused Binance of extracting value from the ecosystem via high token listing fees. OKX founder Star (Xu Mingxing) presented a more technical critique, arguing Binance's high-yield USDe promotion allowed systemic risk to accumulate, fundamentally altering the market's microstructure post-1011. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko indirectly supported critics, leading CZ to unfollow him—highlighting underlying competition between the BSC and Solana ecosystems. In Binance's defense, some analysts like Dragonfly's Haseeb Qureshi argued the crash lacked a single cause, citing pre-existing market stress from Trump's tariff comments, API issues affecting market makers, and a lack of circuit breakers. Amid the FUD, Binance announced it would convert its $1B SAFU insurance fund from stablecoins to Bitcoin. The incident underscores the immense scrutiny Binance faces as the industry's largest exchange, raising questions about its role in maintaining systemic stability in a leveraged and narrative-driven market.

Odaily星球日报02/02 03:12

Old Case Resurfaces: The 1011 Crash Sparks a Mixed Battle of Public Opinion Between Exchanges and Ecosystems

Odaily星球日报02/02 03:12

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