2026-06-15 Понедельник

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Over 80% of New Tokens Peak at TGE, The Root Cause and Cure for Web3's False Prosperity Lies Here

More than 80% of new tokens in 2025 have seen their Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) fall below their initial TGE valuation, with a median decline of 71%. Only 15% of tokens performed better post-TGE. This trend indicates that for most projects, the token generation event (TGE) represents their peak valuation. Statistical analysis of 113 token launches reveals that common success metrics—such as high fundraising amounts, large social media followings, and listings on major exchanges—have little to no statistical correlation with token performance. Projects raising more capital (e.g., over $10 million) did not perform better than those raising less (e.g., $300k–$500k). In fact, lower-funded projects often delivered higher returns per dollar raised. Social community size proved irrelevant; most "communities" are speculative and disappear when token prices fall. Token pricing also matters: tokens priced between $0.01–$0.05 at launch had the highest survival rate, while those priced outside this range generally failed. AI-related tokens outperformed others in both peak and current returns, while Gaming and DeFi sectors struggled significantly. Launch platforms (IDOs/IEOs) did not ensure success—most tokens on these platforms fell 70–93% post-launch. The root issue is a market that prioritizes hype over substance, narrative over data, and promises over products. To survive in 2026, projects should focus on lean fundraising, realistic token pricing, product-market fit, and tangible metrics like user retention and revenue—rather than vanity metrics. The old playbook is broken; a new, pragmatic approach is essential.

Odaily星球日报12/23 09:55

Over 80% of New Tokens Peak at TGE, The Root Cause and Cure for Web3's False Prosperity Lies Here

Odaily星球日报12/23 09:55

A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now

The article "A New Perspective on Crypto's Four-Year Cycle: Insights from Seven Industry Veterans" explores whether the traditional four-year market cycle, historically driven by Bitcoin halving events, still holds true in today's crypto market. Key points from seven experts include: - The four-year cycle, once driven by Bitcoin's supply reduction from halving, is now increasingly influenced by macro liquidity, institutional adoption, and global financial policies (e.g., U.S. elections, Fed policies). - ETF inflows and institutional capital have altered price action, flattening post-halving rallies and reducing volatility as Bitcoin matures into a trillion-dollar asset. - Experts disagree on the current market phase: some see a bearish transition due to declining miner profitability and capital outflow to AI stocks, while others view it as a mid-to-late bull cycle correction with potential for slow, structural growth driven by macro liquidity. - The "altcoin season" may not return in its traditional form; future outperformance will likely be selective, focused on utility-driven projects rather than broad speculative rallies. - Most experts have reduced altcoin exposure, favoring BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, with cash reserves above 50% in some cases. - Advice for investors: avoid leverage, consider gradual accumulation (e.g., below $60K for BTC), and prioritize discipline over timing. Consensus: The four-year cycle is evolving from a rigid halving-driven model to a more complex, macro-dependent framework, with reduced returns and slower, institution-led growth defining the future.

Odaily星球日报12/23 09:34

A New Perspective on the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Industry Veterans What Stage We're In Now

Odaily星球日报12/23 09:34

This American Earns $250 Million a Year from Podcasting, and Luo Yonghao Is Learning from Him

American podcaster Joe Rogan earns $250 million annually from his hugely successful show, "The Joe Rogan Experience." The article details his unconventional path from comedian, reality TV host, and UFC commentator to becoming the world's most influential podcaster. His long-form, casual interview style, often lasting over three hours, has attracted top guests like Elon Musk (in a famous 2018 episode where Musk smoked cannabis), Donald Trump (a key 2024 election interview), and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Rogan's success is attributed to his "outsider" approach, creating a space where guests can speak freely, unlike traditional media. This has built immense trust with his primarily young, male audience who are skeptical of mainstream news. His 2020 exclusive deal with Spotify was worth $200 million, and he renewed it in 2024 for $250 million without exclusivity. The article explores his significant cultural impact, notably his role in the 2024 U.S. election where Trump's appearance on his show was widely credited with reaching crucial voters. It also notes attempts to replicate his model in China, such as Luo Yonghao (罗永浩), but highlights challenges like a preference for short-form content and different media environment. Finally, it addresses the controversies surrounding Rogan, including spreading COVID-19 and AIDS misinformation, which critics say make him a hub for conspiracy theories, while supporters value his anti-establishment stance.

深潮12/23 09:21

This American Earns $250 Million a Year from Podcasting, and Luo Yonghao Is Learning from Him

深潮12/23 09:21

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