瑞·达利欧：中国主导的“朝贡体系”重现，AI产业将如电动汽车产业一样发展

marsbitОпубликовано 2026-06-08Обновлено 2026-06-08

Введение

桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧近期就世界格局与人工智能（AI）产业发展发表观点。他认为，随着美国全球信誉下降及中国影响力提升，世界正步入由中国主导的“朝贡体系”时期，即各国通过访华等方式承认其实力，形成基于相对实力的等级化国际关系。这一变化将加剧市场不确定性，促使投资者寻求资产多元化配置，包括黄金。 在AI领域，达利欧指出中美发展路径存在显著差异。美国公司侧重于调整商业模式以实现盈利和上市，而中国则将AI视为像水电一样的基础工具，致力于以可承受的成本让广大劳动者使用，推动生产力提升。他类比中国电动汽车产业的成功模式，认为中国AI产业将走类似道路，即通过大规模应用和市场渗透实现快速增长。摩根大通高管亦指出，中国更关注利用AI驱动产业升级，寻找如机器人技术等下一个主导领域，而非担忧AI对就业的冲击。

原文来自:《华尔街周报》节目:达利欧的警告&瑞·达利欧谈中美 AI 发展

编译 | Odaily 星球日报(@OdailyChina)

译者 | Wenser(@wenser2010)

编者按:作为世界上最大的对冲基金桥水基金的创始人,瑞·达利欧的言论历来受到了社会各界的高度关注,尤其是其对世界宏观经济局势以及不同产业的认知,更是无数人津津乐道的话题。随着上个月美国总统特朗普、俄罗斯总统普京等领导人接连访华,瑞·达利欧也针对此事提出了自己新的观点——“世界格局正在变化,由中国主导的朝贡体系正在建立”。近日,针对中美之间的“AI 巨头竞争态势”,其也给出了自己的针对性观点。以下内容由 Odaily 星球日报整理编译,部分细节有删改。

瑞·达利欧谈“中国主导下的世界”:朝贡体系再现

上个月,美国总统特朗普、俄罗斯总统普京相继访华后,瑞·达利欧接受了来自彭博社《华尔街周报》节目的 David Westin 的采访。

节目中,瑞·达利欧直言,“美国作为愿意为捍卫自身利益而战的全球强国的信誉正在下降,而中国则在不断积累属于自己的全球财富和世界影响力。这一局势正在从根本上改变世界其他国家对这两个国家的看法。”

“目前,美国在全球 80 多个国家拥有大约 750 个军事基地,因此长期以来一直被视为在面临(战争)攻击时值得信赖的盟友。”但在瑞·达利欧结束了为期一个月左右的亚洲之行后(其中包括在中国与多位领导人的近 10 天左右的会面),他感觉到了一种重要的变化:越来越多的国家逐渐认为——“无法指望美国来赢得战争”。

瑞·达里奥的言论进一步阐述了他长期以来的观点:“美国的实力正在逐渐减弱,与之相对,中国的实力则在不断增强。”得益于瑞·达利欧旗下的桥水基金与中国接触颇多,该观点受到了不少人的认可。但另一方面,由于其与中国领导人较为亲密的关系,他的这些观点也受到了不少批评。

达利欧随后表示,国际社会的认可对中国来说非常重要。目前,中国的经济规模约为美国的 60%到 70%,这一比例在过去的 20 年里增长了三倍多。他说,虽然中国并不寻求征服或占领其他国家,但它非常重视各国政治领导人的认可。“你可以看到,很多国家的领导人纷纷访华,这就好比中国历史上那种‘朝贡制度’——各国都来承认并尊重中国的强大实力,但这种体系并非压迫性的、控制性的体系。”(Odaily星球日报 注:原话为 ‘tribute system’)

“所以,这种朝贡制度其实是一种等级制度,在与其他国家打交道时,重要的是这种制度会如何影响双方之间的贸易和国家安全。我认为,从政治角度来看,我们现在正步入这样一个时期:(中国与)各个国家之间会形成类似朝贡制度的安排,而各国之间的相对实力则将成为(世界政治局势中的)决定性因素。”过程当中,瑞·达利欧也提及,知道 17 世纪中叶,西方社会才逐渐产生了国家、国界等概念,此前,西方社会中的权力格局由不同的王室家族构成,这和中国历史一直以来承袭的边疆概念是截然不同的。

他认为,这一变化会直接影响到(资本以及金融等全球)市场。因为投资者必须应对当前这一动荡局面:货币价值存在风险,(世界范围内的)不确定性则要求投资者保持流动性并实现资产多元化配置,包括投资黄金。

瑞·达利欧谈“中美两国 AI 竞争态势”:中国 AI 产业将如电动汽车产业一样发展

6 月,Business Insider 报道了瑞·达利欧对中美两国 AI 赛道竞争的观点,同样提及了两者之间的巨大差异和潜在影响。

瑞·达利欧表示,中国将人工智能视为一种应该为所有劳动者所拥有的重要工具。“这就像电和自来水一样,是每个人都应该享有的东西,”

作为早在 1984 年就曾首次访问中国的知名企业家,瑞·达里奥长期以来一直非常看好中国的发展。此前他曾在纽约举行的《福布斯》杂志会议上告诉与会者:“中国通过出口获得了巨额利润,而这些资金被广泛利用于人工智能领域的研发,从而通过提高生产效率来推动经济增长。”

值得一提的是,瑞·达利欧强调道,当 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等美国公司正在调整( AI 模型的)订阅套餐结构、努力增加收入以准备上市时,中国的公司则致力于让尽可能多的普通员工能够使用他们的模型。“它不一定要价格昂贵,甚至也不一定(现在)非得盈利才行。”

“某种程度上,”达利欧认为,“它模仿了该国在电动汽车产业等领域的成功路径——中国的本土企业比亚迪等企业在欧洲等市场实现了快速增长。”

在达里奥演讲后的嘉宾讨论中,摩根大通高管 Mary Callahan Erdoes 指出,与美国“将就业问题视为政治话题”的社会氛围不同,中国 AI 企业的高管和政界人士在提及 AI 时,“并没有 AI 冲击就业的恐惧”。相反,该国更注重“利用 AI 来推动各项发展”,并致力于寻找下一个可以取得主导地位的产业领域。“机器人技术赛道基本上可以被视为中国的‘下一代电动汽车产业’,”她说道。

Связанные с этим вопросы

Q瑞·达利欧认为中国正在建立什么样的国际体系？他使用了什么历史概念来形容？

A瑞·达利欧认为中国正在主导建立一个以“朝贡体系”（tribute system）为参照的国际秩序。他强调，这种体系并非压迫或控制性的，而是一种等级制度，其核心在于各国领导人通过访华等方式，承认和尊重中国的强大实力，这种相对实力将成为世界政治局势的决定性因素。

Q瑞·达利欧如何看待中美两国在AI产业发展路径上的主要差异？

A瑞·达利欧认为，中美两国在AI产业发展路径上存在根本差异。美国公司（如OpenAI和Anthropic）更关注调整订阅套餐、增加收入和准备上市，带有商业盈利导向。而中国则将AI视为像水电一样的基础设施和普惠工具，致力于让尽可能多的普通劳动者使用，现阶段并不强求立即盈利，其发展路径类似于在电动汽车产业上的成功模式。

Q在AI发展的社会态度上，中美两国有何不同？摩根大通高管的评论是什么？

A在AI发展的社会态度上，美国社会更多地将AI带来的就业冲击视为一个政治话题，存在一定的恐惧。而根据摩根大通高管Mary Callahan Erdoes的评论，中国AI企业高管和政界人士在谈论AI时，“并没有AI冲击就业的恐惧”。他们更注重利用AI来推动各项发展，并致力于寻找下一个可以取得主导地位的产业领域，例如将机器人技术视为“下一代电动汽车产业”。

Q瑞·达利欧对全球投资者在当前局势下的资产配置提出了什么建议？

A瑞·达利欧认为，当前世界格局变化带来了动荡和不确定性。他建议全球投资者必须应对这种局面，意识到货币价值存在风险。为此，投资者应保持资产的流动性并进行多元化配置，其中包括投资黄金以对冲风险。

Q根据文章，瑞·达利欧通过什么现象来佐证其关于中国国际影响力上升的观点？

A瑞·达利欧主要通过近期多国领导人（如上月美国总统特朗普、俄罗斯总统普京）接连访华这一现象来佐证其观点。他认为这类似于中国历史上的“朝贡制度”，即各国领导人通过访问来承认和尊重中国的强大实力，这标志着由中国主导的国际影响力体系正在建立。

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