Raydium (RAY) рост

The article discusses how major tech companies like Coinbase, Stripe, and Kraken are increasingly acquiring or building their own underlying infrastructure to capture profits, moving away from relying on external DeFi protocols. It uses the example of Coinbase's Base blockchain, which generates sequencing fees for Coinbase from protocols like Morpho that deploy on it. Similarly, Stripe acquired Bridge to capture stablecoin yield instead of paying it to Circle, and Kraken bought NinjaTrader for its derivatives licenses. The core argument is that when channel-based advantages (like user traffic) fade, control over the profit-generating infrastructure becomes critical. While this could lead to a future dominated by a few integrated giants, the article suggests a more balanced outcome is possible. Protocols that have already achieved deep, multi-chain integration and embedded themselves into corporate backends create high switching costs, making them difficult to replace. Examples include Morpho (despite reliance on Base, it's widely deployed) and Uniswap. The piece concludes that the race between institutional expansion and open-source protocol proliferation will ultimately shape the industry's structure.

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio links declining U.S. credibility and rising Chinese influence to a modern "tribute system" – a hierarchical order based on power differentials, economic interests, and diplomatic pressure rather than direct control. This shift, he argues, makes U.S. commitments appear negotiable, prompting Asian nations to reassess security and economic alignments. A key market vulnerability is the advanced semiconductor supply chain concentrated in East Asia, which produces the majority of the world's most advanced chips. Dalio suggests that even without direct conflict, uncertainties over commitments, shipping, or supply chain reshoring can trigger asset price volatility in tech stocks, Asian markets, and RMB-denominated assets. While not predicting immediate extreme events, he warns that policy swings, miscalculations, and non-military pressure could reshape regional order, with market reactions preceding any outright confrontation.

SemiAnalysis' in-depth report on ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) details its rapid rise as China's largest upcoming semiconductor IPO. Founded in 2016 by Zhu Yiming, CXMT built its DRAM foundation on acquired patents and talent from the bankrupt German firm Qimonda. It achieved its first annual profit in 2025 after nearly a decade of significant capital support, primarily from patient Hefei municipal investors who fostered a local supply chain. The company is now capitalizing on a strong DRAM supercycle. Its revenue soared from ~$3.3B in 2024 to ~$8.6B in 2025, with Q1 2026 alone reaching ~$7.3B. SemiAnalysis projects full-year 2026 revenue could exceed $50B, driven by soaring ASPs rather than massive market share gains. While CXMT is closing the capacity gap with Micron, its product mix remains heavily focused on commodity DDR/LPDDR, which currently offers higher margins than its nascent HBM business. CXMT faces significant challenges in HBM, struggling with yield and stability for HBM3 8-Hi stacks while lagging behind the big three (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) in advanced nodes. However, strategic national priorities for AI self-sufficiency may push it to accelerate HBM capacity. Its complex IPO structure reveals heavy state-backed ownership and voting control over its fabs, with Alibaba appearing as both a key cloud customer and a minority shareholder. The IPO aims to raise ~$4.1B, primarily to strengthen its core DRAM manufacturing base.

Ray Dalio, billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, advises investors to consider "hard money" assets like gold and Bitcoin to hedge against potential financial collapse, citing high debt, inequality, and geopolitical tensions as systemic risks. While he allocates about 1% of his personal portfolio to Bitcoin and suggests a 5-15% allocation to such non-printable assets, he prefers gold. Dalio expresses caution about Bitcoin due to potential government regulation, infrastructure vulnerabilities from technologies like quantum computing, and privacy concerns. He emphasizes the importance of a balanced, diversified portfolio across stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin to navigate economic uncertainty.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the current AI-fueled market boom resembles the bubbles of 1929 and 2000. He cites classic signs: stock prices detached from earnings, easy access to capital for new share offerings, and inexperienced retail investors using leverage to trade ETFs. Dalio highlights the critical distinction between wealth (paper valuations) and money (liquid cash), noting the U.S. wealth-to-money ratio is at an extreme 8.5 to 1. He explains that when money is needed—due to rising rates or taxes—the bubble bursts as assets are sold, prices collapse, and debt servicing becomes untenable. Furthermore, he frames this within an 80-year "Big Cycle" where excessive debt, wealth inequality, and geopolitical tensions converge. The collapse of the AI bubble, he warns, could trigger not just a financial crisis but also intense political and macroeconomic conflicts.