Key Takeaways
What is PlanB saying about Bitcoin’s cycle?
PlanB argues that Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak yet, saying the current slowdown doesn’t fit the typical “post-halving top” narrative.
Which on-chain indicators support his view?
Bitcoin’s realized price ($55K) and RSI remain well below overheated levels, suggesting no major cycle climax has occurred.
Bitcoin’s recent correction has reignited old debates about whether the market has already topped out for this cycle.
However, according to PlanB, the creator of the popular Stock-to-Flow [S2F] model, the current market may still be mid-cycle, not at its peak.
In a post shared on X, PlanB dismissed claims that Bitcoin’s $126,000 high marked the cycle top and that a long bear phase would follow in 2026.
Source: X
He argued that those predictions rely too heavily on the “four-year halving cycle,” which he said is too limited to serve as a reliable pattern.
“Three cycles are not enough for a reliable pattern,” PlanB wrote. “The top could just as well come in 2026, 2027, or 2028.”
The analyst said key on-chain signals don’t yet show signs of a market climax. He pointed to three metrics, RSI, realized price, and the 200-week moving average, that typically flash overheated levels before a major top.
Bitcoin’s Realized price still close to historical baseline
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s realized price sits around $55,200, while the market price trades near $111,000. Realized price is the average price at which all coins last moved.
Historically, cycle peaks occur when Bitcoin trades far above this level, often coinciding with an RSI above 80.
Source: CryptoQuant
PlanB noted that this divergence hasn’t happened yet, suggesting Bitcoin’s rally could still have room to run.
No major overvaluation signal yet
Supporting that view, Santiment data shows Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score at roughly 2.56, well below the “overheated” range of 8–10 seen during market tops.
The metric compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, giving insight into how profitable investors are.
Source: Santiment
In plain terms, long-term holders are sitting on solid gains — but not excessive ones that typically lead to heavy profit-taking.
A different kind of market cycle
PlanB suggested that Bitcoin may be entering a more stable phase dominated by institutional investors and fund mandates rather than retail speculation.
In this regime, prices may not rise or fall as sharply as institutions rebalance positions to maintain exposure levels.
“There has not been a fundamental Bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle,” he wrote. “Either the big jump has yet to come, or we’ve transitioned into a more stable price regime.”
The bottom line
While bears warn of a post-halving collapse, PlanB’s outlook implies that Bitcoin’s current slowdown might be a pause, not the end of the bull market.
As of writing, Bitcoin trades around $110,000. The next few months might bring the long-awaited breakout that defines every halving cycle, or a new era where institutional flows set the pace.
