Key Takeaways
Why is MSTR’s 28th BTC buy just the start?
With Q4 underway, the stock is set to ramp up BTC stacking, potentially pushing 2025 buys close to 40.
How’s the stock vs. BTC looking?
MSTR’s down from its peak, but the BTC stash is solid — 638k coins with $27 billion+ in paper gains.
Michael Saylor’s at it again. Strategy (formery MicrosStrategy) is gearing up for its 28th Bitcoin [BTC] buy of the year, already 58% ahead of last year’s pace.
On the charts, the stock’s taken a hit, down roughly 120% from its $450 peak.
However, the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) is ripping. It is up 14.66% YTD, hitting 22,141 all-time high, with rate-cut vibes fueling risk-on flows. In this context, is MSTR just warming up for its Q4 BTC stacking spree?
MSTR’s Bitcoin accumulation marches on despite pain
Macro volatilty is screaming on the MSTR chart.
Last year, MSTR ripped 358%, fueled by 17 BTC buys, stacking the treasury to 446k BTC ($27.2 billion). Fast-forward to 2025, ROI is just 14% YTD, but the BTC stash has more than doubled to 638,460 ($46.17 billion).
In essence, macro swings have kept the stock in check, but the BTC stack remains untouchable. It shows traders are cautious on equities, while MSTR stays all-in on Bitcoin.
Source: Bitbo
And it looks like this “strategy” is paying off.
With 638k Bitcoin in the treasury at a cost basis of $72,350 per coin, MSTR is now sitting on roughly $27.23 billion in unrealized profit. That’s a solid 59% paper gain on the stack, keeping the bull thesis very much alive.
But what happens when the equity market flips risk-on? Could this kickstart another Bitcoin stack ramp for MSTR in Q4, especially with the Federal Reserve hinting at its first 2025 rate cut?
Risk-on equities set to trigger MSTR’s next BTC move
MSTR’s BTC buys are already up 58% from last year.
However, the real question is how much juice is left with just two weeks into Q4. On the charts, equities are ripping. The Nasdaq (COMP) has surged nearly 32% off the April FUD low.
In step with this trend, MSTR’s been riding that flow. From the Liberation Day bottom at $280, it popped 60% to $450 by mid-July before pulling back to $330, carving out a local top and base for the next move.
Source: TradingView (MSTR/USD)
Technically, MSTR looks primed for a run back toward ATH.
However, the real kicker is the FOMC just two days out. The market’s already pricing in a 96% chance of a 400–425 bps rate cut, and equities are front-running the bullish setup.
Against this backdrop, MSTR is on track to ramp up Bitcoin stacking for Q4. So far, the monthly average BTC buy has been 3, which means the total transactions could top 10, pushing the 2025 tally close to 40 BTC buys.
