Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin at $1M in 3 Years, Driven by Fed Panic and a Meltdown in US Treasuries

Key Takeaways

• Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could hit $1 million within three years.
• He cites U.S. treasury devaluation and a coming wave of money printing as key drivers.
• Bitcoin is currently trading above $102,000, up over 30% from its three-month low under $75,000.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is doubling down on a bold Bitcoin (BTC) prediction.

In a new blog post, Hayes said he believes BTC could reach $1 million by 2028, driven by macroeconomic shifts and aggressive monetary policy.

According to Hayes, the next bull run is already underway, and he expects two major catalysts to supercharge Bitcoin’s ascent over the next three years.

Devaluation of U.S. Treasuries and Capital Flight

In his analysis , Hayes argues that weakening U.S. treasuries and repatriating foreign capital will play a central role in Bitcoin’s rise.

“Just because I believe Bitcoin is going to $1 million doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities to take tactical short positions,” Hayes wrote. “Capital controls and money printing are coming, but the road from here to there is rocky.”

He believes that investors will eventually seek refuge in hard assets like Bitcoin as bond yields climb.

Even if rising rates weigh on equities in the short term, Hayes said BTC will look beyond temporary volatility to the bigger picture: a global pivot to liquidity.

Money Printing and the Federal Reserve

Hayes remains convinced that a return to aggressive monetary easing is inevitable.

While the Federal Reserve has been cautious with rate cuts, even amid tariff wars and market instability, Hayes expects that pressure from ballooning government deficits will eventually force the Fed’s hand.

He anticipates that the U.S. central bank will resume bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE), pushing yields lower and inflating asset prices.

“Bond prices will rise and yields collapse,” he wrote. “The Fed will buy bonds due to its QE policy. The banks will buy bonds because they can do so with infinite leverage, and they will front-run the Fed’s purchases.”

Hayes argues that this flood of liquidity will funnel into alternative assets like Bitcoin, especially as trust in traditional financial instruments erodes.

Bitcoin’s Current Position

Arthur Hayes’ long-term outlook comes as Bitcoin continues to rebound. The asset is now trading above $102,000, having surged more than 30% from a three-month low below $75,000.

He acknowledged that the path to $1 million won’t be smooth, but believes the macro tailwinds are aligning.