24 Predictions for Crypto and AI in 2026

比推Опубликовано 2025-12-31Обновлено 2025-12-31

Введение

The author, Benedic, founder of Meridian, presents 24 predictions for 2026 as a public commitment to test his judgment. He will delete the article if more than 6 predictions are proven wrong upon review next year. He discloses holdings in some mentioned assets and expresses interest in angel investment. Key predictions are categorized: **Mainstream Assets:** Quantum computing will challenge Bitcoin; Ethereum's relevance and price will decline; Solana will lead in synthetic assets and retain retail users; Monad will succeed as a Layer 1; Binance new coins will underperform stocks. **Application Layer:** Hyperliquid will gain market share in perpetuals, but overall growth slows; prediction markets won't expand beyond sports/politics; on-chain tokenized crypto options will hit $10B volume; Base will abandon SocialFi. **Infrastructure:** Robinhood's L2 will stagnate; Base will drop its L2 focus; privacy middleware integrated with embedded wallets will gain popularity; Coinbase or Stripe will solve fiat on-ramps for stablecoins. **Solana Ecosystem:** Protocol-integrated block building will advance; routing aggregators and DEXs/market makers will vertically integrate; tokenized stocks will scale significantly outside the US. **AI (Crypto):** AI assistants will become default in apps, a key differentiator; AI-written smart contracts will lower development barriers, spurring mechanism design innovation; ChatGPT will become more modular with a popular crypto plugin. **AI (Non-C...

Author: Benedic, Founder of Meridian

Original Title: Predictions for 2026

Preface

This is my first attempt at writing 24 predictions for 2026, aiming to hold myself accountable through public commitment. If the accuracy rate falls below 18 items (i.e., more than 6 errors) upon verification next year, I will delete this article. At that time, I will evaluate each item one by one and publish the results.

I hold positions in some of the assets and companies mentioned in this article. If you are building in these directions, I look forward to discussing the possibility of angel investment with you.

Mainstream Assets

- The quantum computing narrative will become a serious challenge for Bitcoin in 2026, as its community is too decentralized to propose credible solutions.

- Ethereum's market attention will continue its multi-year decline and begin to show substantial price weakness.

- Solana will shed its meme coin chain label and become the leading platform for real-world synthetic asset trading, while maintaining the largest retail user base.

- Monad will establish itself as an influential Layer 1, with its year-end price significantly higher than the Coinbase ICO price. Apart from Tempo, other execution layers launched in 2025 or early 2026 will fail to gain lasting market appeal or attention.

- The strategy of buying a basket of new Binance coins will significantly underperform the strategy of buying stocks.

Application Layer

- Hyperliquid will capture market share from centralized perpetual contract platforms, but the overall growth rate of the BTC/ETH/altcoin perpetual contract market will be relatively slow.

- Prediction markets will fail to expand significantly beyond sports and major political events, gradually fading from the mainstream view.

- Some form of on-chain tokenized crypto options product will reach a trading volume of $10 billion.

- Base will abandon SocialFi and revert to being an ordinary wallet.

Infrastructure

- Robinhood's Layer 2 will make little progress due to reduced demand for regulatory arbitrage in the current political environment.

- Base will abandon its Layer 2 positioning.

- Some privacy middleware located below the application layer and vertically integrated with embedded wallets will become quite popular.

- Coinbase or Stripe will completely solve the fiat on-ramp issue for stablecoins in third-party applications.

Solana Ecosystem

- Block building will take a significant step toward protocol integration. Jito and Harmonic will adjust their strategies and both successfully launch new business lines beyond block building.

- We will see vertical integration between routing aggregators and decentralized exchanges/professional market makers.

- Tokenized stocks will gain a foothold and achieve significant scale in markets outside the U.S.

AI (Crypto Field)

- AI assistants will significantly improve and become the default configuration in most mainstream consumer applications. By the end of the year, a key differentiator among applications will be the quality of their AI assistants.

- Multiple smart contracts almost entirely written and tested by Claude will gain massive attention. Twelve months from now, the barrier to writing smart contracts will feel 10 times lower than it does now, sparking a renaissance in mechanism design.

- ChatGPT will become more modular and agentic (via plugins), and one crypto use case within it will rapidly gain popularity.

AI (Non-Crypto Field)

- Anthropic will surpass OpenAI in revenue and become the highest-valued AI lab.

- Google will solve the post-training problem, and Gemini Flash will become the most popular model for global non-coding agent tasks.

- Nearly all AI companies selling to enterprises will realize they are competing with each other. This collapse of the imagination space will make competition exceptionally fierce.

- Meta will launch a new consumer AI product that tops the App Store download charts.

- (Low probability but I believe its value is relatively underestimated compared to consensus) A new paradigm beyond "giving LLMs detailed prompts and a series of specialized tools" will emerge and greatly shake up which startups in the field have value.

Original link:https://www.bitpush.news/articles/7599494

Связанные с этим вопросы

QWhat is the author's main prediction regarding Bitcoin in 2026?

AThe author predicts that the quantum computing narrative will become a serious challenge for Bitcoin in 2026, as its community is too decentralized to propose a credible response.

QAccording to the author, which blockchain will become the dominant platform for real-world synthetic asset trading while retaining the largest retail user base?

AThe author predicts that Solana will shed its meme coin chain label and become the dominant platform for real-world synthetic asset trading, while continuing to have the largest retail user base.

QWhat significant development does the author foresee for AI assistants in consumer applications by the end of 2026?

AThe author predicts that AI assistants will be significantly improved and become the default configuration in most mainstream consumer applications, with the quality of the AI assistant becoming a key differentiator between applications by the end of the year.

QWhich company does the author predict will surpass OpenAI in revenue and become the highest-valued AI lab?

AThe author predicts that Anthropic will surpass OpenAI in revenue and become the highest-valued AI lab.

QWhat is the author's prediction about the future of Base's Layer 2 and its SocialFi focus?

AThe author predicts that Base will abandon its Layer 2 positioning and also abandon its SocialFi focus, reverting to being a regular wallet.

Похожее

Claude Opus 4.8 Finds a $4.5 Billion Bug: The AI Era is Mass-Producing Hackers

A researcher discovered a critical "infinite mint" vulnerability in the Zcash cryptocurrency's Orchard protocol using Claude Opus 4.8, leading to a swift fix but also a 50% market drop, erasing billions in value. This incident highlights a new era where powerful, accessible AI models are dramatically lowering the barrier to finding software vulnerabilities. Previously, the security community feared specialized models like Claude Mythos Preview, capable of finding decades-old zero-day exploits. The Zcash case, however, involved a publicly available, general-purpose model. This shift makes advanced security auditing—and attack capabilities—accessible to far more people, not just experts. The mass democratization of vulnerability discovery brings a dual challenge: a flood of low-quality, AI-generated false reports that overwhelm maintainers, and the real, rapid uncovering of deep, dangerous bugs. Open-source projects, often understaffed and unfunded, are particularly vulnerable to this "attention DDoS." The article cites examples like curl shutting down its bug bounty program due to the unsustainable workload. Our perceived digital safety has often been luck, relying on the high cost and effort required to find deeply hidden flaws in complex systems, as seen with historical vulnerabilities like Heartbleed or Baron Samedit. AI changes this cost structure, effectively "mass-producing flashlights" to illuminate every corner of our codebase. While large companies operate extensive security chains involving external white-hat hackers and massive defensive operations, the global cybersecurity workforce faces a severe shortage, especially of experienced personnel capable of analyzing complex threats and coordinating fixes. The core dilemma emerges: AI makes *finding* bugs cheap and scalable, but *fixing* them remains a slow, expensive, and human-intensive process. The article concludes that AI won't destroy the internet but acts as a bright light, revealing that our digital existence is not inherently secure but is precariously maintained by ongoing human effort. The true cost in the AI era may not be discovery, but whether there will be enough people left willing and able to do the hard work of repair.

marsbit12 мин. назад

Claude Opus 4.8 Finds a $4.5 Billion Bug: The AI Era is Mass-Producing Hackers

marsbit12 мин. назад

Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Could Double While Cardano (ADA) and This Newcomer Token Near 500% Rally

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates a potential bull cycle, investor focus is shifting toward projects with high return potential. Ethereum (ETH), currently at approximately $2,014, is highlighted for its long-term value, with predictions suggesting a possible 2x increase to over $4,000. Cardano (ADA), trading around $0.2329, remains a choice for its research-driven development and scalability focus, though some seek higher upside elsewhere. Significant attention is drawn to Little Pepe (LILPEPE), a new Layer 2 Ethereum-compatible token priced at $0.0022 in its presale stage, which has raised over $28.19 million. The project aims to build a dedicated blockchain for meme communities, offering lower costs and faster transactions. Backers speculate a potential 500% gain, driven by strong presale demand, planned ecosystem features like staking and a launchpad, and active community engagement through giveaways. While Ethereum and Cardano are viewed as foundational investments, LILPEPE represents a newer, high-growth opportunity for investors targeting the meme coin sector.

TheNewsCrypto33 мин. назад

Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Could Double While Cardano (ADA) and This Newcomer Token Near 500% Rally

TheNewsCrypto33 мин. назад

Codex Goal Mode Usage Guide: How to Make AI Continuously Pursue a Specific Objective

"Codex Goal Mode: How to Make AI Work Continuously Toward a Specific Goal" OpenAI's Codex "goal mode" (/goal) transforms the AI from a reactive code assistant into a proactive execution agent capable of working autonomously for hours or even days to achieve a defined objective. To maximize its effectiveness, follow these key principles: 1. **Define Clear, Verifiable Exit Criteria:** The goal prompt should be a concise, measurable success condition, not a lengthy specification. Use quantifiable metrics like "reduce build time by 30%" or "achieve 100% test parity." 2. **Provide Initial Guidance and Tools:** Direct Codex toward likely problem areas and specify available tools (e.g., browsers, testing environments) to prevent it from exploring unproductive paths. 3. **Enable Progress Measurement:** Equip Codex with ways to track advancement, such as creating comparison tools for visual tasks or evaluation sets, ensuring it can gauge its own progress. 4. **Use a Realistic Execution Environment:** For tasks like performance optimization, provide access to environments that closely mimic production (e.g., similar configs, databases) to yield valid results. 5. **Be Cautious with Visual Goals:** Avoid vague "pixel-perfect" instructions. Instead, supplement visual references with functional checklists or design system specifications to prevent Codex from obsessing over minor details. 6. **Implement Progress Tracking:** For long-running tasks, have Codex commit code to draft PRs, update progress documents, or send Slack updates to maintain visibility into its work. 7. **Review and Consolidate Results:** Once the goal is met, instruct Codex to review its work, clean up ineffective experimental code, and reflect on what strategies succeeded or failed. Ultimately, using goal mode shifts the developer's role from writing prompts to managing a persistent engineering agent—defining objectives, establishing metrics, configuring environments, and conducting final reviews.

marsbit1 ч. назад

Codex Goal Mode Usage Guide: How to Make AI Continuously Pursue a Specific Objective

marsbit1 ч. назад

From Ethereum to AI's 'CROPS': What Exactly Is This 'Slow Variable' That Vitalik Has Repeatedly Emphasized?

Recently, Vitalik Buterin has frequently emphasized the concept of "CROPS," first outlined in the Ethereum Foundation's March mandate as core principles guiding its focus: Censorship Resistance, Capture Resistance, Open Source, Privacy, and Security. CROPS represents Ethereum's commitment to providing foundational capabilities for user sovereignty—enabling asset ownership, identity expression, and coordination without reliance on centralized platforms or surrendering ultimate control. This framework is gaining new urgency with the rise of AI, particularly AI agents managing digital assets and automating transactions. While AI offers convenience, it risks centralizing user data, intent, and control if dependent on opaque, centralized services. Vitalik argues for "CROPS AI"—AI that is open, privacy-preserving, secure, and capable of local execution to maintain user agency. He highlights convergence between "CROPS Ethereum access layers" and "CROPS AI," such as using zero-knowledge proofs for private remote LLM calls and Ethereum RPC reads, ensuring users can access services without exposing sensitive information. Ultimately, CROPS is not just an abstract ideal but a practical guide for Ethereum's development and AI integration. It addresses the critical long-term question: as digital systems grow more powerful, how can users retain control over their privacy, assets, and autonomy? In an AI-driven era, these principles may define Ethereum's enduring value—prioritizing verifiable, secure, and user-centric design over short-term optimizations like speed and cost alone.

marsbit1 ч. назад

From Ethereum to AI's 'CROPS': What Exactly Is This 'Slow Variable' That Vitalik Has Repeatedly Emphasized?

marsbit1 ч. назад

Forget Bitcoin, What Does Gold Have To Do With The Altcoin Season?

The article suggests that the timing of the next altcoin season may be signaled by gold's price action rather than traditional crypto market metrics. An analyst predicts gold will stage a bear market rally to around $4,800 before resuming a downward correction. This rally could trigger a FOMO-driven surge in altcoins, followed by a sharp correction and a sentiment capitulation—which would then mark the true beginning of the altcoin season. Meanwhile, the total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins is testing a long-term rising support trendline, indicating a potential foundational level for future expansion. The convergence of these factors implies the market may need one final emotional flush before a sustained altcoin season can commence.

bitcoinist1 ч. назад

Forget Bitcoin, What Does Gold Have To Do With The Altcoin Season?

bitcoinist1 ч. назад

Торговля

Спот
Фьючерсы

Популярные статьи

Неделя обучения по популярным токенам (2): 2026 может стать годом приложений реального времени, сектор AI продолжает оставаться в тренде

2025 год — год институциональных инвесторов, в будущем он будет доминировать в приложениях реального времени.

1.8k просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2025.12.16Обновлено 2025.12.16

Неделя обучения по популярным токенам (2): 2026 может стать годом приложений реального времени, сектор AI продолжает оставаться в тренде

Обсуждения

Добро пожаловать в Сообщество HTX. Здесь вы сможете быть в курсе последних новостей о развитии платформы и получить доступ к профессиональной аналитической информации о рынке. Мнения пользователей о цене на AI (AI) представлены ниже.

活动图片

Топ вопросы

Популярные категорииright-arrow

Популярные тегиright-arrow