# Risk-off Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Risk-off", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Is Bitcoin’s price at risk of $58K after U.S 10-year yields near 5%, oil-driven inflation

Bitcoin's recent rally to $76,000 has reversed amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is consolidating near a bullish flag pattern, with a potential breakout toward 5%—a level last seen in 2023. Higher yields could trigger capital outflows from risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially driving its price down to the $58,632–$55,302 demand zone. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $296 million over the past week, reversing previous inflows, indicating a risk-off sentiment among institutional investors. Surging oil prices, with Brent crude near $106, are stoking inflation concerns and reducing the likelihood of near-term monetary easing. These factors suggest Bitcoin remains sensitive to broader macro liquidity conditions rather than acting as a reliable inflation hedge in the short term.

ambcrypto03/29 04:12

Is Bitcoin’s price at risk of $58K after U.S 10-year yields near 5%, oil-driven inflation

ambcrypto03/29 04:12

Bitcoin At Risk? Odds Tilt Toward Drop Below $66K This April

Options traders are pricing in over a 50% probability that Bitcoin remains below $66,000 by late April, reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment. The 30-day delta skew surged to 15%, indicating heightened demand for downside protection. Bitcoin fell 7.5% to $65,500 on Friday, liquidating over $200 million in long positions and rendering most call options worthless ahead of a major expiry. The selloff was driven by geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices surpassing $100, and climbing bond yields, which pressured risk assets broadly. Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20% this year. With macro pressure mounting and traders avoiding weekend exposure, the near-term outlook remains bearish.

bitcoinist03/28 21:01

Bitcoin At Risk? Odds Tilt Toward Drop Below $66K This April

bitcoinist03/28 21:01

Will the Fed’s $8B liquidity injection create a turning point for crypto?

Given the current macro environment marked by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve signals. The Fed's recent $8 billion liquidity injection is drawing significant attention, as shifts in liquidity often directly impact crypto markets. Technically, crypto showed early resilience but momentum is fading, with the total market cap dropping 3.4% in a day, erasing nearly $100 billion. Rising Treasury yields and a risk-off shift are pulling capital into safe havens, reminiscent of the 2022 cycle that triggered a major crypto bear market. The Fed's intervention may provide short-term support and slow the flight to safety, potentially acting as a key catalyst in the current cycle.

ambcrypto03/27 09:12

Will the Fed’s $8B liquidity injection create a turning point for crypto?

ambcrypto03/27 09:12

Crypto drops alongside equities as risk-off sentiment spreads across markets

Cryptocurrencies experienced a broad sell-off alongside U.S. equities, signaling a market-wide shift toward risk-off sentiment rather than crypto-specific weakness. Major digital assets declined, with Ethereum falling 4.1% and Solana dropping over 5%, while Bitcoin saw a more modest 2.1% decrease. Losses extended across altcoins and large-cap tokens like BNB and XRP, with stablecoins remaining stable as investors sought safety. Similarly, tech stocks such as Meta and Nvidia fell sharply, highlighting a retreat from high-risk assets. The synchronized decline underscores continued correlation between crypto and equities during periods of market stress, reflecting their increased sensitivity to macro sentiment and institutional flows.

ambcrypto03/26 22:02

Crypto drops alongside equities as risk-off sentiment spreads across markets

ambcrypto03/26 22:02

What ‘extreme fear’ across Bitcoin and S&P means for markets

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are both experiencing extreme fear, signaling a synchronized macro-driven risk-off sentiment as liquidity tightens. After a prolonged period of negative correlation since 2020, both markets are now converging, indicating broader economic pressures are influencing investor behavior. This shift follows a major Bitcoin liquidation event in October, where approximately 70,000 BTC in open interest was wiped out, resetting market positioning to levels last seen in April 2025. Bitcoin’s price, which had shown resilience during geopolitical stress, has since trended downward, while the S&P 500 recently rolled over from its highs. The alignment in fear gauges—Bitcoin’s at 12 and the S&P 500’s at 16—is rare, as these markets typically price fear at different stages. The decline reflects a broad de-risking by investors, with both asset classes now more dependent on real capital flows rather than leverage-driven demand. Bitcoin’s open interest has dropped significantly, reducing cascade risk but also weakening trend strength, making prices more sensitive to actual inflows. This transition from speculative expansion to capital preservation highlights the dominance of macro conditions over both crypto and equities.

ambcrypto03/22 15:02

What ‘extreme fear’ across Bitcoin and S&P means for markets

ambcrypto03/22 15:02

Capital Outflow, Long-Short Balance: Ethena's Ebb Reveals a Rare Signal

The cryptocurrency market has been in a risk-off mode for months. Ethena, a key player in crypto basis trading, has seen its deployed capital—acting as a proxy for excess long demand—plummet to $791 million, just 71% of its 2025 low and 12.9% of its previous peak. This sharp decline reflects a rare market structure where active longs and active shorts are nearly balanced, a historically unstable condition. Ethena’s business model involves taking the short side of perpetual swaps against leveraged long traders, earning funding rates. The drastic reduction in its deployed capital—down over 60% in a month despite relatively stable Bitcoin prices—suggests either unprofitable basis trades are being unwound or increased hedging activity (e.g., VCs and projects hedging small-cap token exposure) is crowding out opportunistic basis traders like Ethena. Perpetual futures, central to crypto leverage, require a 1:1 match between longs and shorts. The current equilibrium indicates exceptionally low speculative long interest and a rise in structural short hedging. This balance is fragile and unlikely to persist, potentially leading to increased volatility. Ethena’s retreat serves as a clear signal of shifting risk appetite and crowded hedging strategies in crypto markets.

比推03/09 14:30

Capital Outflow, Long-Short Balance: Ethena's Ebb Reveals a Rare Signal

比推03/09 14:30

What Does Ethena's Trend Reveal About the Cryptocurrency Market?

The article analyzes the perpetual futures market structure and risk sentiment in the cryptocurrency market using Ethena's transparency dashboard as a key indicator. It reveals that Ethena's deployed capital has dropped to $791 million, only 71% of its 2025 low and 12.9% of its peak, reflecting extremely low net long demand in the market. A key insight is that directional long positions are nearly equal to directional short positions—a rare and historically unsustainable balance in crypto. The analysis breaks down perpetual contract holders into four categories: directional longs, directional shorts (including hedgers), basis traders (like Ethena), and arbitrageurs. Ethena’s role as a basis trader provides a proxy for excess long demand. The sharp decline in its deployed capital—over 60% since February 2026—suggests either the unwinding of unprofitable basis trades, increased hedging activity from directional shorts, or weak leveraged long demand. Current negative funding rates and stable open interest indicate growing short or hedge demand, possibly from VC firms and crypto companies managing risk in a bearish market. This equilibrium between longs and shorts is unusual and may signal a market regime change, though it remains uncertain whether this balance can persist.

marsbit03/09 10:12

What Does Ethena's Trend Reveal About the Cryptocurrency Market?

marsbit03/09 10:12

Could Jane Street’s $19M Bitcoin sale spark fresh liquidation risks?

Jane Street, a firm with a history of market manipulation, recently transferred $19 million in Bitcoin, testing market resilience. This occurs as Bitcoin faces a long liquidity crunch, with $200 million in derivatives liquidated in 48 hours and $600 million flowing out of ETFs. The move risks triggering another long squeeze and a sharp corrective phase, echoing past events where Jane Street's actions contributed to major price declines. Weak underlying bids and selling by short-term holders suggest growing downside pressure, making this a key event to watch for potential market impact.

ambcrypto03/07 14:02

Could Jane Street’s $19M Bitcoin sale spark fresh liquidation risks?

ambcrypto03/07 14:02

Beyond Capitulation: Why Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders Refuse To Blink Amid Iran Escalation

Bitcoin is under pressure as Middle East tensions increase market uncertainty, but a key behavioral shift is emerging. Short-term holders (STHs), who typically amplify volatility by sending coins to exchanges during losses, are not panicking as expected. During a capitulation event in early February, STHs transferred 89,000 BTC at a loss in 24 hours. Since then, loss-driven inflows have declined steadily. Even amid recent Iran-related geopolitical escalation—a classic risk-off trigger—there was no significant spike in STH realized-loss transfers. This suggests that forced selling phase may be exhausting, indicating seller fatigue and potential market stabilization. The key signal ahead is whether STHs continue to restrain from selling, pointing to base-building, or if a new loss-transfer spike renews downside risk.

bitcoinist03/03 04:02

Beyond Capitulation: Why Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders Refuse To Blink Amid Iran Escalation

bitcoinist03/03 04:02

Anthropic sparks a tech sell-off – It could be crypto’s turning point

Anthropic's launch of Claude has triggered a significant tech sell-off, exemplified by IBM's 13.15% drop, signaling a broader shift toward risk-off sentiment. This AI-driven uncertainty is also impacting crypto, where AI integration is raising production costs and creating new blockchain use cases. Analysts suggest the market may be nearing a bottom, as indicated by a contraction in USDT supply—a pattern previously associated with market stabilization. This combination of tech volatility and crypto's AI adoption could lead to capital rotation into digital assets, marking a potential turning point for the sector.

ambcrypto02/24 19:01

Anthropic sparks a tech sell-off – It could be crypto’s turning point