# Inflation Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Inflation", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

After 6 Quarters of Calling for Rate Cuts, Rate Expectations Are Instead Moving Upwards

In September 2024, the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle, projecting a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025—implying four additional cuts. However, six quarters later, the March SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) reveals a significant shift: the rate now stands at 3.50%-3.75%, 25 basis points higher than initially expected. The median projection for 2026 has also risen from 2.9% to 3.4%. The Fed’s internal consensus has fractured. Out of 19 FOMC participants, seven now expect no rate cuts in 2026, while seven anticipate only one cut. This 7:7 split reflects a fundamental disagreement over the direction of monetary policy, moving from debates over the magnitude of cuts to whether cuts should occur at all. Persistent inflation is the core issue. The Fed has consistently revised its PCE inflation forecasts upward over the past six quarters, with the 2026 projection now at 2.7%—up 0.6 percentage points from initial estimates. Core PCE, a key indicator of underlying inflation, was revised up sharply to 2.7%, signaling entrenched price pressures. Despite slightly raising its GDP growth forecast to 2.4% and holding unemployment steady at 4.4%, the Fed’s unchanged median rate projection conflicts with its own rising inflation outlook. Market expectations remain more dovish, pricing in around 50 basis points of cuts, but the Fed’s internal division and consistent underestimation of inflation suggest continued uncertainty. The central bank is effectively chasing reality, with no clear consensus on the path ahead.

marsbit03/19 02:30

After 6 Quarters of Calling for Rate Cuts, Rate Expectations Are Instead Moving Upwards

marsbit03/19 02:30

Why Did the War Safe-Haven Logic Suddenly Fail? Gold Fell, but Bitcoin Rose

In a surprising turn of events, the conventional "safe haven" logic during wartime appears to have broken down. When the US and Israel launched a military strike against Iran on February 28, gold—traditionally a go-to asset during crises—briefly spiked but then fell by nearly 10% over two weeks, dropping to around $5,020. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged over 20%, rebounding from $63,000 to above $75,000, outperforming gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq. The divergence stems from differing underlying mechanisms. Gold was suppressed by rising inflation expectations triggered by the conflict. Soaring oil prices—due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—led markets to anticipate prolonged high interest rates from the Fed, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Additionally, central banks potentially reducing gold reserves further weakened its support. Bitcoin’s rally, however, was driven by multiple factors: a technical rebound after a 50% drop from its peak, its 24/7 trading availability (allowing it to absorb panic selling and buying when traditional markets were closed), strong inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs, and its practical portability during conflict—enabling easy cross-border value transfer via memorized seed phrases, unlike physical gold. The episode highlights that gold’s safe-haven status isn’t unconditional—it falters when war-induced inflation keeps rates high. Bitcoin, while not yet a proven safe haven, demonstrated unique structural advantages in a crisis. The outcome challenges simplistic narratives and suggests "hedging risk" now depends on whether one is mitigating immediate dangers or betting on future monetary shifts.

比推03/17 12:32

Why Did the War Safe-Haven Logic Suddenly Fail? Gold Fell, but Bitcoin Rose

比推03/17 12:32

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