# HBM Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "HBM", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Can SK Hynix's Stock Double Again in This Rally?

The article discusses the highly optimistic price target of approximately $3,500 for SK Hynix stock, set by Aletheia Capital. This target is significantly above the consensus range of $2,000-$2,520 from major brokerages. The core debate is whether SK Hynix deserves a fundamental re-rating beyond its traditional cyclical discount, based on the long-term impact of AI-driven demand. The $3,500 target hinges on three key assumptions holding simultaneously until at least 2027: 1) Continued shortage and high pricing for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), a critical component for AI chips; 2) Sustained high prices for standard DRAM, as HBM production consumes capacity and constrains general supply; and 3) Strong AI server demand generating substantial, above-expectation free cash flow. SK Hynix's leading ~58% market share in HBM and its early certification with key clients like Nvidia provide a competitive advantage, allowing it to capture significant supply chain premiums. The HBM shortage is seen not just as a niche growth driver but as a catalyst that amplifies profitability across the entire memory business by tightening overall DRAM supply. However, the article cautions that this target represents an optimistic "tail scenario." Key risks include potential supply increases from competitors (Samsung, Micron) by 2027, a possible slowdown in HBM price growth, and high capital expenditures that could erode the projected free cash flow. The divergence in analyst targets reflects the market's uncertainty over whether the current AI-driven boom will temporarily elevate earnings or permanently raise the memory industry's profit baseline.

marsbit06/16 07:54

Can SK Hynix's Stock Double Again in This Rally?

marsbit06/16 07:54

Micron CEO's Latest Interview: 'Storage' is an Overlooked Bottleneck in AI, Supply Constraints to Continue

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasizes that memory and storage are a critical, yet underestimated, bottleneck for AI development, stating that the "AI race is not just a compute race, it's a memory race." He argues that AI's evolution—driven by larger models, longer context windows, and growing token consumption—demands not only more computing power but significantly enhanced "memory" or storage capacity and bandwidth. Mehrotra highlights a structural supply constraint, predicting tight industry supply will persist beyond 2026. Building new fabs takes 3-4 years, with subsequent ramp-up periods. Furthermore, advancing technology nodes yield diminishing bit output gains per wafer. He notes that the manufacturing complexity of memory, involving physics, chemistry, and mass production precision, is vastly underappreciated. Despite announcing a $200 billion U.S. manufacturing investment, Mehrotra underscores that such decisions are based on disciplined analysis of data, technology trends, and customer needs, not speculation. He expresses no doubt about the long-term opportunity in memory, driven by AI's early-stage growth, while emphasizing the need for resilience, agility, and long-term focus to navigate industry cycles.

marsbit06/10 02:10

Micron CEO's Latest Interview: 'Storage' is an Overlooked Bottleneck in AI, Supply Constraints to Continue

marsbit06/10 02:10

South Korean Stocks Plunge, Global Funds Liquidate: Has the Semiconductor Fundamentals Really Changed?

South Korean stocks experienced their sharpest decline of the year, with the KOSPI index plunging nearly 9% on Monday, triggering a market circuit breaker. Leading semiconductor firms Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were heavily sold off, raising questions about whether the AI-driven bull market has reached an inflection point. This sell-off was largely triggered by a significant drop in the U.S. semiconductor sector late last week. Concurrently, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visited Seoul over the weekend, meeting with top executives from SK Group, Samsung, LG, and NAVER. He announced a new multi-year partnership with SK Hynix to co-develop next-generation memory products for AI data centers. Huang emphasized that AI infrastructure build-out remains in its early stages, creating a stark contrast between market panic and ongoing, strengthened industry collaboration. The article argues that South Korea has become one of the most sensitive markets for global AI-related capital flows, functioning like a large AI memory ETF due to the heavy weighting of its chipmakers. The current market turmoil reflects a shift in investor focus: from simply betting on overall AI growth to scrutinizing which companies will actually capture the profits from that growth. This "profit pool reassessment" phase is causing high volatility based on supply chain news and earnings guidance. Ultimately, the direction of the Korean market will be determined by external factors—NVIDIA's orders, HBM supply-demand dynamics, and capital expenditures from cloud service providers—rather than domestic conditions. The disconnect between sharp price corrections and continued strong signals from the industry core leaves the market at a crossroads, awaiting clearer data on the durability of AI infrastructure demand.

marsbit06/08 04:29

South Korean Stocks Plunge, Global Funds Liquidate: Has the Semiconductor Fundamentals Really Changed?

marsbit06/08 04:29

A Memory Reduction Report Triggers a Plunge: Is It an Overreaction?

A supply chain report regarding NVIDIA's Rubin platform's system memory configuration triggered a significant sell-off in AI memory stocks. The report suggested a potential reduction in per-rack CPU-side system memory (SOCAMM/LPDDR) from ~55TB to ~28TB, impacting the perceived value per cabinet. This led to sharp declines for Micron and SK Hynix, as the market broadly reacted to the negative headline of "memory cut," without initially distinguishing between CPU system memory and GPU-side HBM4. The article clarifies that the reported adjustment primarily affects the CPU-side system memory profit pool, not the HBM4 demand tied directly to GPUs, which remains a critical and supply-constrained component. The sell-off is interpreted as a high-position, sentiment-driven reaction in a crowded trade, rather than a fundamental reassessment of HBM. While the cost reduction per cabinet could theoretically boost overall rack shipments, this remains speculative. The key going forward is concrete data on final Rubin BOMs, actual shipment volumes, and revenue splits for companies like Micron (exposed to SOCAMM/DRAM) and SK Hynix (focused on HBM). The event highlights a market shift from buying a broad AI memory narrative to scrutinizing specific profit pools within the AI hardware chain.

marsbit06/05 06:30

A Memory Reduction Report Triggers a Plunge: Is It an Overreaction?

marsbit06/05 06:30

55TB to 28TB? The Rumor and Panic Behind Rubin's Memory Being Halved

Title: 55TB to 28TB? The Rumor and Panic Behind the Potential Halving of Rubin's Memory. On June 4th, a report from SemiAnalysis suggested NVIDIA's next-gen Vera Rubin NVL72 AI rack may ship with roughly 28TB of SOCAMM DRAM per rack instead of the anticipated 55TB, primarily using 96GB modules. This sparked a market panic, causing Micron's stock to drop over 10% on fears of halved memory demand. However, the article argues this panic is misguided for several key reasons. First, SOCAMM modules are socketed and upgradeable, not soldered. Lower initial configuration doesn't mean permanent demand loss. Second, the primary driver is a severe 2026 LPDDR5X supply shortage, not diminished need. NVIDIA is likely prioritizing rack shipments with available components. Third, with fixed total LPDDR5X supply, using less per rack could allow NVIDIA to ship *more* racks, not necessarily reducing overall memory orders. Micron's sharp drop was also attributed to a broader semiconductor sell-off triggered by Broadcom's earnings, with the SemiAnalysis report providing a convenient narrative for profit-taking after Micron's massive rally. In summary: the report on lower default configurations is likely accurate, but interpreting it as a demand collapse is wrong. The real risk for Micron lies in its reportedly minimal HBM4 share for Rubin, not in potentially flexible SOCAMM demand. The sell-off appears more like a correction amplified by coinciding negative catalysts.

marsbit06/05 01:15

55TB to 28TB? The Rumor and Panic Behind Rubin's Memory Being Halved

marsbit06/05 01:15

From Suppliers to Shareholders: The Big Three Memory Chip Giants Jointly Invest in Anthropic, AI Supply Chain Power Structure Undergoing Reshuffle

For the first time, memory chip giants Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix have jointly invested in the same AI company, Anthropic, as part of its massive $65 billion Series H funding round. This strategic move, positioning the three rival HBM suppliers as "strategic infrastructure partners," highlights a fundamental shift in the AI industry's power dynamics. With HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) being a critically scarce resource essential for AI model training and inference, securing a stable supply has become a key competitive differentiator. By making these chipmakers shareholders, Anthropic aims to lock in this vital component for its rapid expansion, which includes securing major compute commitments from Amazon, Google, and others. For the memory trio, this investment represents a strategic bet on defining the future of AI hardware. Each company gains: SK hynix reinforces its dominant position in the NVIDIA supply chain; Samsung diversifies its client base beyond NVIDIA; and Micron leverages its geopolitical significance as the sole US-based HBM maker. Their collective move signals that competition in AI is evolving beyond model capability to encompass control over the entire compute supply chain—from chips and memory to power and networking. This vertical integration trend, where infrastructure providers become direct stakeholders in AI firms, marks the industry's maturation as AI transforms from a research project into essential global infrastructure, setting the stage for a new era of ecosystem competition.

marsbit05/30 04:40

From Suppliers to Shareholders: The Big Three Memory Chip Giants Jointly Invest in Anthropic, AI Supply Chain Power Structure Undergoing Reshuffle

marsbit05/30 04:40

Samsung Leverages Technology Cycles, SK Hynix Relies on HBM, What Enabled Micron to Win a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap?

Micron Technology, the Idaho-based memory chip maker, recently saw its market cap surpass $1 trillion, securing its position as one of the top three DRAM manufacturers alongside Samsung and SK Hynix. Its survival and growth story is marked by a unique combination of political maneuvering and hard-won manufacturing efficiency, but also strategic missteps that now challenge its future. Founded in 1978 in Boise without significant government or capital backing, Micron repeatedly turned to Washington for survival during critical junctures. In the 1980s, it filed anti-dumping complaints against Japanese firms, leading to the U.S.-Japan Semiconductor Agreement. Ironically, this created an opening for Samsung, which Micron had earlier licensed its 64K DRAM technology to. In 2002, Micron avoided heavy fines in a price-fixing investigation by acting as a whistleblower against its competitors, cementing its reputation as a "political opportunist." A major strategic error occurred in 2013 with its $2.5 billion acquisition of bankrupt Japanese firm Elpida. This deal burdened Micron with integrating incompatible manufacturing processes just as the industry was pivoting toward HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), a critical technology for AI. SK Hynix had launched its first HBM chip that same year. By the time AI demand exploded with ChatGPT in 2022, SK Hynix commanded about 85% of the HBM3 market, while Micron, playing catch-up, held only around 3%. In 2017, Micron employed similar tactics against a new competitor, Chinese startup Fujian Jinhua, by alleging intellectual property theft, which led to U.S. sanctions effectively crippling the firm. However, this strategy backfired in 2023 when China banned Micron's products from its critical infrastructure, causing its revenue share from China to plummet from 14% in FY2023 to just 7.1% by FY2025. Today, Micron faces a triple squeeze: it lags in the high-margin HBM race, faces pricing pressure in low-end DRAM from Chinese manufacturers like CXMT, and has lost crucial access to the booming Chinese AI server market. Despite its political strategies, Micron's core strength is its exceptional manufacturing cost control, achieved through decades of engineering. Its DRAM chips have a smaller cell area than its rivals, yielding more chips per wafer. This efficiency has been vital for weathering industry downturns. However, this advantage cannot compensate for the decade lost in HBM development. Micron is now racing to ramp up production of its HBM3E, certified by NVIDIA, and develop HBM4. Its future hinges on whether it can close this technological "time debt" through relentless R&D and execution, in a marathon where its competitors, having started earlier, are not slowing down.

marsbit05/28 07:28

Samsung Leverages Technology Cycles, SK Hynix Relies on HBM, What Enabled Micron to Win a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap?

marsbit05/28 07:28

A Trillion-Dollar Frenzy for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

Summary: A stark divide has emerged in the tech industry. While memory chipmaker Micron's stock soared 19% in a single day, pushing its market cap over $1 trillion, smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi reported a 43% plunge in adjusted net profit. The core driver is a severe supply crunch in memory chips, particularly for AI applications. Wall Street analysts, led by UBS and its unprecedented 204% target price hike for Micron, argue that long-term agreements (LTAs) from AI cloud giants are fundamentally ending the sector's notorious boom-and-bust cycles, justifying a re-rating from cyclical to infrastructure-like valuations. However, the "storage" market is now fragmented into three tiers. The first, AI-grade memory like HBM and server DDR5, faces extreme shortages and soaring prices driven by massive cloud capex. The second, mobile memory for smartphones, is also seeing sharp price hikes as manufacturers like Xiaomi are forced to pay more for remaining capacity, severely squeezing their margins. The third, PC retail channels, shows price declines due to existing inventory. The article questions the sustainability of the "supercycle" narrative. It highlights that Micron's revenue surge is driven almost entirely by price increases, not shipment volumes, making it vulnerable to a potential demand slowdown. While LTAs may dampen volatility, history suggests they are often tested during downturns. The current peak earnings, used to justify high valuations, represent a classic cyclical top. The piece concludes with a note of caution: when the entire Street chants "this time is different," it's wise to remember past bubbles, even as it acknowledges AI demand may indeed be structural.

marsbit05/27 11:57

A Trillion-Dollar Frenzy for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

marsbit05/27 11:57

Trillion-Dollar Euphoria for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

Title: The Trillion-Dollar Memory Seller's Carnival vs. The Buyer's Halved Profits On May 26, a stark contrast unfolded. While memory chipmaker Micron's market cap surged past $1 trillion, smartphone maker Xiaomi reported plummeting profits. Xiaomi's Q1 2026 profits fell 43% year-on-year. Executive Lu Weibing cited memory prices quadrupling from last year, adding roughly $210 to a phone's cost. To survive, Xiaomi is cutting entry-level models, sacrificing volume. Micron's stock, however, skyrocketed over 19% in a day, capping an 8x gain in a year. Major banks like UBS and JPMorgan issued bullish reports, raising price targets drastically. Their core thesis: Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) with AI cloud giants (Microsoft, Google, etc.) are eliminating the memory industry's notorious boom-bust cycle. By locking in fixed-price, multi-year contracts for AI-grade memory (HBM, server DDR5), these deals promise stable, utility-like earnings, justifying a higher valuation (20-30x P/E vs. the historical 8-15x). The article reveals a three-tiered memory market in 2026: 1) **AI Storage (HBM/DDR5/Enterprise SSD)**: Extreme shortage, soaring prices, LTAs. This is Micron's story. 2) **Mobile/Embedded Memory**: Also facing sharp price hikes as AI production crowds out capacity, severely pressuring phone makers like Xiaomi. 3) **PC Retail**: Some spot prices are falling due to channel inventory liquidation, creating a divergence from contract markets. The author questions if LTAs truly end the cycle. It hinges on sustained, hyper-growth AI demand. Micron's current profits are at a cycle peak, driven mostly by price hikes, not volume. If AI capital expenditure growth slows, the massive industry capacity expansion (e.g., Micron's $250B+ CapEx plan) could lead to a glut. Historically, using peak-cycle earnings for valuation is a classic trap. While the AI-driven structural shift might be real, the unanimous Wall Street euphoria warrants caution, echoing past bubbles like Cisco's in 2000. The memory seller's trillion-dollar狂欢 (carnival) continues, but the cycle's shadow remains.

链捕手05/27 11:48

Trillion-Dollar Euphoria for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

链捕手05/27 11:48

Samsung Relies on Technology Cycles, SK Hynix on HBM, How Did Micron Win a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap?

Micron Technology, the third-largest memory chip maker alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, recently saw its market cap surpass $1 trillion. Founded in 1978 in Boise, Idaho, Micron survived brutal industry cycles while American peers and Japan's memory sector faltered. Its survival is attributed to a dual strategy: leveraging political and legal avenues for critical breathing room, coupled with relentless manufacturing cost control. Historically, Micron sought U.S. government intervention three times. In 1985, it filed an anti-dumping complaint against Japanese firms, leading to the U.S.-Japan Semiconductor Agreement. Ironically, this created an opening for Samsung, which later became its toughest competitor. In 2002, Micron turned "whistleblower" in a DRAM price-fixing investigation, escaping penalties while rivals were fined. In 2017, it sued China's Fujian Jinhua, contributing to its placement on a U.S. entity list, stifling a nascent competitor. However, a major strategic misstep occurred in 2013 with the acquisition of bankrupt Japanese firm Elpida. Integrating Elpida's mobile-DRAM-focused technology diverted resources, causing Micron to miss the critical early decade of development for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—the high-performance memory essential for AI chips like NVIDIA GPUs. By the time AI demand exploded in 2022, SK Hynix, which launched the first HBM in 2013, held about 85% of the HBM3 market, leaving Micron with roughly 3%. Micron now faces a triple squeeze. In the high-end HBM market, it lags significantly behind SK Hynix and Samsung. In the mid-to-low end DRAM market, it faces aggressive price competition from China's CXMT. Furthermore, a 2023 Chinese cybersecurity ban on its products slashed its revenue from China, a once-core market, from over 10% to just 7.1% by FY2025, causing it to exit China's data center server business. Beneath its political maneuvering lies Micron's core strength: exceptional manufacturing efficiency and cost control. Decades of engineering have yielded DRAM chips with a smaller cell area than rivals, meaning more chips per wafer and lower unit costs. This efficiency, not subsidies, has allowed it to withstand price wars. While political leverage bought time, Micron is now paying a "time debt" in the HBM race. It is racing to ramp up HBM3E production and develop HBM4, but catching up to competitors who started a decade earlier is a monumental challenge. Its future hinges on whether its expertise in cost control and political strategy can compensate for the lost time in a technology race where early-mover advantage is decisive.

链捕手05/27 06:39

Samsung Relies on Technology Cycles, SK Hynix on HBM, How Did Micron Win a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap?