# Fed Policy Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed Policy", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

"Sell America" Trade Resurfaces: Global Funds Reprice Washington Policy Risks, Dollar and Treasuries Bear the Brunt

"Sale of America" Trade Resurges as Global Funds Reprice Washington Policy Risks, Hitting Dollar and Treasuries First Recent policy signals from Washington are prompting global bond and foreign exchange investors to reignite the "Sale of America" debate. Uncertainty stems from Fed Chair Wash's shift towards less policy communication, Treasury Secretary Bessant's approval of joint intervention with Japan to support the Yen (the first such coordinated move in nearly 30 years), expanding fiscal deficits, and trade war fears. These factors are undermining confidence in U.S. assets. The 30-year Treasury yield recently broke above 5%, hitting a high not seen since 2007, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen about 2% from its June peak. This dollar weakness is unusual given still-high U.S. interest rates. Investors cite policy uncertainty as a key driver, with one manager calling the Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary a "double whammy" creating a "Trump administration premium." While the S&P 500 continues hitting record highs and foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries remain high, parts of the bond and FX markets are adjusting. A core concern is whether the Fed under Wash can effectively anchor inflation expectations; analysts warn that if the Fed lags the hiking cycle, long-end yields could face further upward pressure. The 30-year term premium has risen sharply. The U.S.-backed Yen intervention has also sparked debate on the dollar's structural outlook. While framed by Bessant as a "reallocation of reserves," market participants caution that if Japan—America's largest foreign creditor—must sell Treasuries to fund interventions, ripple effects could hit the bond market. Strategists predict moderate dollar depreciation ahead. Most experts are not predicting an end to dollar hegemony or the safe-haven status of Treasuries. However, a key underlying risk is highlighted: the pace of foreign buying of U.S. debt may not keep up with the speed of American borrowing, gradually eroding the structural advantages that have long supported "American exceptionalism."

marsbitYesterday 12:10

"Sell America" Trade Resurfaces: Global Funds Reprice Washington Policy Risks, Dollar and Treasuries Bear the Brunt

marsbitYesterday 12:10

Arthur Hayes' 10,000-Word New Article: When Will the AI Wave Peak? Will the Bubble Burst? Why Am I Fiercely Buying ETH?

In his latest essay, "When Will the AI Wave Peak? Will the Bubble Burst? Why Am I Loading Up on ETH?", crypto veteran Arthur Hayes presents a contrarian thesis on the AI investment boom, framing it as an impending credit bubble rather than a tech growth story. Hayes argues that massive AI infrastructure spending (AI CAPEX) is fundamentally a real estate play—building data centers—disguised as high-growth technology. This misclassification leads to dangerous capital misallocation. He predicts the bubble is a credit bubble akin to the 2008 financial crisis, not an earnings bubble like the 2000 dot-com bust. The turning point will not be AI companies failing to profit, but a slowdown in the growth rate of data center construction, which will cause over-leveraged players to falter. He anticipates AI CAPEX growth will slow by mid-to-late 2027, entering a "slowdown phase" in 2028. However, credit will continue flowing due to profitable lending, government pressure, and implicit bailout guarantees. This creates a period of misallocation where credit exceeds valuable projects. Hayes draws parallels to the 2006-2007 housing market "no man's land." Governments, particularly the US, will inevitably print money to bail out the system, possibly through direct equity purchases via SPVs—a form of "Equity QE." This massive future liquidity injection, exceeding the 2008 crisis response, will ultimately flow into crypto, specifically Bitcoin, potentially driving it past $1 million. Regarding the current crypto market, Hayes believes the AI boom has sucked away liquidity, contributing to Bitcoin's correction. He expects Bitcoin to bottom as AI capital misallocation accelerates, with the excess fiat liquidity eventually fueling its next bull run. Finally, Hayes reveals a major personal trade: aggressively accumulating ETH. He targets $5,000 by end-2026, betting on a new narrative where Ethereum becomes the settlement layer for TradFi RWA tokenization, citing projects like Robinhood using Arbitrum L2s as a catalyst. He views ETH as a hated, high-Lindy asset with strong liquidity, presenting an asymmetric opportunity.

Odaily星球日报2 days ago 05:17

Arthur Hayes' 10,000-Word New Article: When Will the AI Wave Peak? Will the Bubble Burst? Why Am I Fiercely Buying ETH?

Odaily星球日报2 days ago 05:17

Bitcoin may find bear market bottom in August: 10x Research

Research firm 10x Research suggests Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August if it achieves a monthly close above $63,000, which would turn several of their technical indicators bullish. While their analysis was prepared with Bitcoin trading at $63,140, a slight gain from July's close could trigger this signal. The report cites steady Federal Reserve rates as a base case but notes risks from potential rate hikes and geopolitical conflict. Additional selling pressure is expected from miners and treasury companies. Grayscale's research head separately suggested Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle, with macro conditions being the primary price driver. Other indicators, like over half of Bitcoin's supply being held at a loss and a record balance held by long-term investors, are also seen as signs a market bottom is approaching.

cointelegraph08/03 10:41

Bitcoin may find bear market bottom in August: 10x Research

cointelegraph08/03 10:41

Goldman Sachs: July Smashes Through Crowded Trades, U.S. Stock Bull Market Not Broken but Harder to Navigate

Goldman Sachs: July Sees Crowded Trades Unwound, U.S. Bull Market Intact but Getting Tougher. The U.S. stock market in July did not see an index-level crash, but rather a significant unwinding of speculative positions. While the S&P 500 remained stable—trading within a narrow 3.5% range and staying within 2% of its high—underlying market dynamics were volatile. Heavily crowded trades, particularly in high-momentum tech, AI-linked stocks, and Asian strategies, faced severe pressure and forced deleveraging. Data indicates this was a meaningful cleanse, not a minor adjustment. Global tech exposure saw its largest sell-off in over five years, leverage in Korean equity ETFs plummeted, and Goldman's prime brokerage recorded the largest gross exposure reduction since late 2022. Leverage on momentum factors among fundamental long/short clients fell to the 28th percentile of its one-year range. The AI trade narrative shifted from pure potential to a focus on tangible returns. While Meta failed to show clear AI monetization, Microsoft and Amazon provided evidence that massive capital expenditure is translating into scalable revenue and product growth, preventing a blanket sell-off of the AI sector. The Federal Reserve's more opaque communication style and volatility in long-end Treasury yields have introduced new friction, particularly for rate-sensitive growth and tech stocks. The broader outlook for U.S. equities remains favorable, supported by a strong economy, robust earnings, and substantial AI capital expenditure. However, risk/reward is no longer cheap, and the market's upward elasticity has weakened. The Nasdaq 100's trajectory—up 12% year-to-date despite significant pullbacks—illustrates that the bull trend persists but the path is becoming more difficult. The key lesson from July is that the market no longer rewards crowded, highly leveraged trades, requiring more disciplined and liquid portfolio approaches.

marsbit08/01 14:21

Goldman Sachs: July Smashes Through Crowded Trades, U.S. Stock Bull Market Not Broken but Harder to Navigate

marsbit08/01 14:21

Analysts: "Another Bitcoin Drop Could Lead to a Reboot"

Crypto analysis firm DeFi Report, in its latest macroeconomic analysis, warns that a potential final wave of decline for Bitcoin could restructure the market and set the stage for a new bull cycle. While the US economy appears strong on the surface, bond market signals and economic indicators suggest the Federal Reserve may not be finished raising interest rates. Key vulnerabilities include a cooling labor market, low personal savings, and a significant drop in housing starts. Although Bitcoin has shown resilience around $65,000 compared to equities, analysts warn that a broader sell-off in risk assets, reflected in an 8-9% drop from the NASDAQ's peak, could impact crypto markets. The report suggests the crypto market has largely weathered its bear season but may face a final "rocky landing" capitulation wave under macroeconomic pressure. In this scenario, analysts anticipate Bitcoin could retreat to the $55,000 level. Such a decline, they argue, would fully clear market excesses and create a solid foundation for a sustained future uptrend.

cryptonews.ru07/30 20:11

Analysts: "Another Bitcoin Drop Could Lead to a Reboot"

cryptonews.ru07/30 20:11

Fed Drops 'Hawkish Bomb' Late at Night: Interest Rates on Hold, Internal Divisions Unseen in a Decade

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, marking the fifth consecutive pause since late 2026. While the decision was widely expected, it revealed a significant internal rift. Three FOMC voting members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—dissented, advocating for a 25-basis-point hike. This level of opposition, the first of its kind since 2016, signals persistent hawkish pressure. Chairman Wash, in a post-meeting press conference, delivered a firm message, emphasizing an unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target and stating the Fed "would not hesitate to act." He announced a substantial shift away from forward guidance, urging markets to interpret economic data independently. Wash also highlighted AI-related capital spending as a key variable, noting its potential dual impact on boosting productivity while potentially pushing up certain prices. Market reaction was pronounced. Stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping over 2% for its worst day in 15 months. Long-term Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest since 2007, while the dollar weakened and gold briefly rose above $4,100. The combination of internal policy dissent and a shift toward data-dependent communication introduced significant uncertainty into the market outlook.

marsbit07/30 01:44

Fed Drops 'Hawkish Bomb' Late at Night: Interest Rates on Hold, Internal Divisions Unseen in a Decade

marsbit07/30 01:44

Bitcoin – ‘Break above $80K unlikely’ – CoinShares identifies missing trigger

Bitcoin is recovering, trading at $63,921, but a CoinShares report indicates the rally is driven by macroeconomic shifts, not crypto-specific developments. Recent lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data raised expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing, reversing an eight-week outflow trend and triggering inflows into Bitcoin investment products. However, the report suggests Bitcoin has likely found a short-term bottom but is unlikely to break above $80,000 without a clear shift in Fed policy. It is expected to trade in a range, potentially between $60,000 and $120,000, until there are definitive signs of monetary easing. Investor sentiment remains cautious, with interest growing in blockchain stocks and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicating "extreme fear."

ambcrypto07/18 14:02

Bitcoin – ‘Break above $80K unlikely’ – CoinShares identifies missing trigger

ambcrypto07/18 14:02

On the Eve of the US Stock Inflation Test, Wall Street Faces the Most Severe 'Data Deception' in History

On the eve of the crucial US June CPI release, a significant credibility gap is emerging between official inflation data and consumer sentiment. While May CPI and PCE figures suggested a "concerning but not critical" picture, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to its lowest level in nearly 50 years. This contradiction is prompting economists to question the reliability of key macroeconomic indicators. The core issue, as highlighted by labor economist Kathryn Anne Edwards, lies in a systemic flaw within the current inflation measurement framework. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) averages prices across a "market basket" meant for a "typical consumer," thereby masking vastly different inflation experiences across demographic groups. For instance, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) research indicates that from 2006 to 2023, the lowest income quintile faced a cumulative inflation rate 7.7 percentage points higher than the highest quintile—a disparity largely invisible in the headline CPI number. This averaging effect means investors and policymakers relying on aggregate CPI may be basing decisions on a statistically smoothed figure that fails to capture the true distribution of economic pressure. Edwards argues that expanding this measurement framework is technically feasible, requiring primarily political will rather than new data collection. The BLS already tracks 100,000 items monthly; creating more granular indices for different family types, income levels, and housing statuses would mainly involve re-weighting existing data. The BLS has produced such experimental series before. A more nuanced data picture is crucial for accurate policy and market forecasting. Ultimately, improving measurement cannot solve underlying economic stresses. Edwards notes concurrent pressures like slowing hiring, stagnant wage growth, persistently high prices, rising credit card debt, a subdued housing market due to high rates, and AI's potential disruption to jobs. These factors collectively explain the deep chasm between official statistics and consumer pessimism. The key takeaway for markets is the need to look beyond a single headline CPI number. Understanding the divergence in inflation experiences across the population is critical for accurately assessing the real pressure within the economy, the path of Federal Reserve policy, and risks on the consumer side.

marsbit07/13 14:24

On the Eve of the US Stock Inflation Test, Wall Street Faces the Most Severe 'Data Deception' in History

marsbit07/13 14:24

US Stocks Are at an Extremely Fragile Moment as Earnings Season Kicks Off

U.S. stocks are entering a high-stakes earnings season amidst what analysts describe as an "extremely fragile" market environment. While major indices show subdued volatility, underlying pressures from geopolitics, monetary policy expectations, and mixed credit market signals are building. UBS's proprietary "Turbu-lens" market fragility indicator has reached 0.9, its highest level since September 2025, historically a precursor to a sharp spike in the VIX volatility index. The risk is amplified by elevated earnings expectations. Analysts project robust profit growth for Q2—24% for the S&P 500 and 12% for the Stoxx 600—but recent upward revisions mean disappointment could trigger outsized market moves. Current low VIX levels are seen as misleading and temporary, with the earnings season likely to push volatility higher. Market internals reveal significant stress, with single-stock volatility exceeding index volatility by more than threefold. This divergence suggests a potential convergence that could drive a sharp rise in index-level volatility. Given likely continued sector rotation, UBS suggests single-stock options may offer better tactical hedging opportunities than broad index hedges. Further pressures stem from rising oil prices, which threaten to keep inflation and interest rate expectations elevated, and a cautious credit market where CDS spreads have not confirmed the equity rally's strength. For investors, UBS recommends focusing on pair-wise correlation trades to navigate expected stock-specific volatility, highlighting sectors like Tech, Energy, and Financials in the U.S. and Energy, Tech, and Consumer Discretionary in Europe.

marsbit07/11 02:47

US Stocks Are at an Extremely Fragile Moment as Earnings Season Kicks Off

marsbit07/11 02:47

Bitcoin at $62K: Why CoinShares warns ‘this still looks like early stage of bottoming’

Bitcoin has stabilized near $62,000 after a decline, but CoinShares warns this appears to be the early stage of a bottoming process rather than a clear start of a new upward trend. The recent rebound was triggered by a weaker-than-expected U.S. June jobs report, which lowered expectations for imminent Fed rate hikes and made riskier assets like crypto more attractive. However, the report cautions this is a transient market response, noting the Fed's recent stance remains hawkish with higher long-term rate projections. Major challenges persist, including past large-scale sell-offs by whale wallets, geopolitical uncertainty, and capital shifting from Bitcoin ETPs into AI-focused ETFs. While trading interest is rising, the current combination of low price and high market leverage increases the risk of a sharp, liquidation-driven price move in either direction.

ambcrypto07/04 17:02

Bitcoin at $62K: Why CoinShares warns ‘this still looks like early stage of bottoming’