# Fed Policy Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed Policy", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Bitcoin: From $124,700 to $78,000 – BTC’s rise, fall, and reality check

Bitcoin's price has fallen to $78,441 in early 2026, erasing nearly all gains from its 2025 rally that peaked at a record $124,700 in October. The decline drivers include the hawkish Federal Reserve Chair nomination, geopolitical tensions, capital rotation away from risk assets, large liquidations, fading spot Bitcoin ETF interest, and unmet expectations like a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. This has revived fears around Satoshi Nakamoto’s unmoved coins, though some see it as a market-clearing phase. Technically, indicators like MACD remain bearish, but oversold RSI levels suggest potential support and a short-term bounce. Market sentiment strain persists, yet Bitcoin’s high dominance indicates capital isn’t fleeing to altcoins, leaving the market in a tense waiting phase.

ambcrypto02/02 08:02

Bitcoin: From $124,700 to $78,000 – BTC’s rise, fall, and reality check

ambcrypto02/02 08:02

The Real Culprit Behind the Crypto Crash: The Warsh Effect

The cryptocurrency market crash, termed the "Warsh Effect," was triggered by former President Donald Trump's announcement nominating Kevin Warsh, a known monetary policy hawk, as the next Federal Reserve Chair. This news caused significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin dropping over 13% from ~$90,400 to $78,214, and Ethereum and Solana falling over 18% in a week. Key reasons include expectations of tighter monetary policy under Warsh, leading to reduced liquidity and higher real interest rates, which negatively impact risk-sensitive assets like crypto. This triggered massive outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs (~$1 billion in a day), initiating a cascade of leveraged liquidations. However, Warsh's views on Bitcoin are nuanced; he has called it a valuable policy barometer and acknowledged its role in U.S. competitiveness. His actual influence remains limited as Fed policy is set by the broader FOMC, which is already cautious about rate cuts. The market's reaction blends fear of monetary tightening with uncertainty over his confirmation, which faces Senate hurdles. The outcome of his confirmation hearings will be critical for future crypto market trends.

marsbit02/02 00:09

The Real Culprit Behind the Crypto Crash: The Warsh Effect

marsbit02/02 00:09

The Real Culprit Behind the Crypto Crash: The Warsh Effect

The cryptocurrency market crash, termed the "Warsh Effect," is attributed to former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as the next chair. Following the announcement, Bitcoin fell to $78,214 (down 6.9% in 24 hours, 12.4% weekly), Ethereum to $2,415 (down 10.5% in 24 hours, 18.2% weekly), and other major altcoins like Solana also experienced significant double-digit losses. Warsh, known as a monetary policy hawk, has historically emphasized inflation vigilance and criticized post-2008 crisis stimulus measures. Markets reacted negatively due to expectations of tighter monetary policy, higher real interest rates, and reduced liquidity—conditions unfavorable for risk assets like crypto. This triggered over $1 billion in net outflows from US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, initiating a cascade of liquidations that accelerated the sell-off. However, Warsh has also expressed constructive views on Bitcoin, calling it a valuable policy barometer and highlighting the US strategic interest in leading crypto development. His appointment requires Senate confirmation and, even if approved, he would only be one vote on the FOMC, which currently holds a cautious consensus on rate cuts. The market's reaction reflects a clash between the bearish narrative of tighter liquidity and a bullish perspective that considers Warsh's pro-innovation stance and political context. The key upcoming event is his Senate confirmation hearing, which will provide clearer signals on future monetary and regulatory policy.

Odaily星球日报02/01 11:13

The Real Culprit Behind the Crypto Crash: The Warsh Effect

Odaily星球日报02/01 11:13

BitMart Insights: January Crypto Market Review and Hotspot Analysis

BitMart Insights: January Crypto Market Review and Key Analysis In January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, signaling cautious policy amid persistent inflation and resilient employment. U.S. stocks rose, driven by AI and earnings, but faced political and external risks. The crypto market saw mixed activity: total trading volume and market cap fluctuated, indicating ongoing uncertainty. New token launches were dominated by VC-backed projects like Brevis and Sentient, while meme coins lacked sustained momentum. BTC and ETH spot funds recorded net inflows of $2.23 billion and $500 million, respectively, reflecting renewed institutional interest. Stablecoin circulation dipped slightly, but emerging options like USD1 and USDE grew. Technically, BTC and ETH broke key support levels, suggesting short-term weakness, with critical supports at $84,000 and $2,623. SOL found support near $117 but remained under pressure. Key developments included World Liberty Trust’s application for a U.S. trust bank license to issue USD1 stable币, and progress on the CLARITY Act, which faces partisan challenges. X’s crackdown on InfoFi projects led to sector declines, highlighting shifts in platform incentives. The launch of ERC-8004 and integration with x402 protocols set the foundation for decentralized AI agent economies. Looking ahead, regulatory clarity, AI ecosystem growth, and USD1’s expansion will be critical areas in February.

marsbit01/30 11:58

BitMart Insights: January Crypto Market Review and Hotspot Analysis

marsbit01/30 11:58

Small-Cap Index Hits New High Again: Will History Predict This Crypto Bull Market?

Small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has reached a new all-time high in early 2026, sparking discussions about its historical correlation with Bitcoin bull markets. The index, which tracks 2,000 smaller U.S. companies, is seen as a gauge of risk appetite, as these firms are more sensitive to interest rate changes due to their reliance on bank financing. Historical data shows that previous breakouts in Russell 2000—in 2016 and 2020—coincided with major Bitcoin rallies. In 2016, post-halving supply constraints and improved risk appetite fueled a bull run. In 2020, massive monetary easing and institutional adoption drove Bitcoin’s surge. However, the current cycle differs. Bitcoin had already reached $100,000 by November 2024, and its post-halving gains—around 50% since April 2024—are modest compared to previous cycles (5x and 27x). Factors like institutional involvement through ETFs, reduced volatility, diminishing halving effects, and earlier price peaks may explain the slower momentum. While some analysts link Russell 2000’s performance to crypto market movements due to shared sensitivity to macro liquidity, the correlation remains speculative with only two historical instances. Notably, despite the index’s rise, small-cap ETFs saw significant outflows in 2025, and many Russell 2000 companies reported negative earnings—raising questions about the sustainability of the risk-on narrative. The article concludes that while Russell 2000’s breakout is an interesting macro indicator, it should not be used as a direct trading signal for crypto, given structural market changes and limited historical evidence.

比推01/23 13:34

Small-Cap Index Hits New High Again: Will History Predict This Crypto Bull Market?

比推01/23 13:34

Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 by Q1 2026

Tiger Research maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, setting a Q1 2026 price target of $185,500, representing approximately 100% upside from current levels. The report cites a supportive macro backdrop, including continued Fed rate cuts and expanding global M2 liquidity, though the macro adjustment factor has been revised down to +25% from +35% due to slowing institutional inflows and geopolitical risks. Key catalysts include the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, which could bring major banks into the digital asset space. On-chain analysis indicates a solid support floor at $84,000 and resistance near $98,000, with metrics like MVRV-Z suggesting the market is at fair value. Despite recent ETF outflows and a 12% price correction, the overall market structure is deemed healthy, with corporate buying from entities like MicroStrategy providing consistent demand. The long-term bullish thesis remains intact.

marsbit01/19 13:58

Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 by Q1 2026

marsbit01/19 13:58

Tiger Research: Policy Catalyst and Liquidity Expansion, Bitcoin Valuation Pegged at $185,500 for Q1 2026

Tiger Research maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, setting a Q1 2026 price target of $185,500, representing approximately 100% upside from current levels. The report cites a supportive macro backdrop, including continued Fed rate cuts and expanding global M2 money supply, though the macro adjustment factor has been reduced from +35% to +25% due to slower institutional inflows and geopolitical risks. Key on-chain indicators suggest a neutral market, with strong support at $84,000 and resistance near $98,000. The potential passage of the CLARITY Act is highlighted as a major regulatory catalyst that could bring traditional financial institutions into the market. Despite recent ETF outflows, the overall market structure is deemed healthy, with a gradual rebalancing rather than panic-driven selling.

marsbit01/18 12:04

Tiger Research: Policy Catalyst and Liquidity Expansion, Bitcoin Valuation Pegged at $185,500 for Q1 2026

marsbit01/18 12:04

Ethereum – Here’s why this White House whale foresees +60% upside to $5.4K

Ethereum's price has recovered by 14% in 2026, reaching $3,400 before a slight retracement. According to White House whale insider Garret Bullish, ETH could surge to $5,413—a 60% upside—based on Elliott Wave patterns. He also cites historical data suggesting geopolitical conflicts often coincide with crypto rallies, with ETH averaging +27% and +39% gains 30 and 90 days post-conflict, respectively. Standard Chartered Bank projects ETH could hit $7,500 by 2026 and $15,000 by 2027. Analyst DeFiIgnas notes that quantum risk may limit BTC's upside, allowing ETH to outperform. The ETH/BTC ratio has been rising since December, indicating ETH is strengthening against BTC. Improved macro conditions and liquidity could further push ETH above $4,000.

ambcrypto01/15 06:03

Ethereum – Here’s why this White House whale foresees +60% upside to $5.4K

ambcrypto01/15 06:03

Fed doubts trigger $1.3B crypto outflows in days – Is risk appetite gone?

Despite a strong start to 2026 with $1.5 billion in inflows within the first two days, the crypto market saw a sharp reversal as $1.3 billion flowed out over just four days, nearly erasing early gains. This shift was primarily driven by fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, as strong U.S. economic data made safer assets more attractive. Outflows were concentrated in the U.S., with $569 million exiting, while Germany, Switzerland, and Canada saw inflows. Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant outflows, while XRP, Solana, and Sui attracted new investments. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin ETFs and several altcoin ETFs recorded inflows, suggesting selective confidence remains.

ambcrypto01/13 17:01

Fed doubts trigger $1.3B crypto outflows in days – Is risk appetite gone?

ambcrypto01/13 17:01

On the Eve of Fed Policy: The Dual Test of "Trillion-Dollar Tariff Ruling" and "Non-Farm Payroll Report"

Key events this week are set to reshape U.S. markets, with major implications for stocks, bonds, and metals. The Supreme Court may rule on the legality of Trump-era tariffs, potentially requiring refunds of up to $133 billion. A ruling against tariffs could boost S&P 500 profits but worsen the deficit, complicating Fed policy. Separately, the U.S. may decide on metals tariffs under Section 232 by January 10, affecting silver, platinum, and palladium. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing is forcing significant sell-offs in gold and silver, adding volatility. Finally, the December nonfarm payrolls report on January 9 will be a critical data point for the Fed’s upcoming policy decision. Investors should brace for heightened market swings.

marsbit01/09 12:54

On the Eve of Fed Policy: The Dual Test of "Trillion-Dollar Tariff Ruling" and "Non-Farm Payroll Report"

marsbit01/09 12:54

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