# Fed Policy Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed Policy", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

BIT Research: ETF Purchases Have Slowed, Strategy (MicroStrategy) Has Slowed, What Else Can Drive Bitcoin's Rise?

Market Refocus on Inflation and Rate Expectations Weighs on Bitcoin Currently, the market is in a phase of macro-repricing dominated by inflation and interest rate expectations. Bitcoin, which previously benefited from easy liquidity and low inflation, is seeing its core bullish drivers weaken. These drivers were market expectations for interest rate cuts and strong inflows from Bitcoin ETFs and institutions like MicroStrategy (referred to as "Strategy" in the text). The logic has shifted. Recent high inflation data (e.g., CPI hitting 3.8% in a May 2026 report) has caused the market to sharply reduce its rate cut expectations for 2025 and even price in potential hikes. This is a key constraint for Bitcoin, as it lacks cash flows and is highly sensitive to rate expectations. Concurrently, institutional capital flows have slowed significantly. Following the hot CPI data, Bitcoin ETFs saw accelerated outflows, with around $4.3 billion leaving over a period. MicroStrategy's ability to keep adding substantial Bitcoin to its balance sheet is also diminishing. Together, ETF and MicroStrategy holdings total roughly $110 billion, but their momentum as growth engines is cooling. In summary, Bitcoin's current pressure stems not from its own fundamentals but from a changing macro environment. As long as inflation stays elevated, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a consolidating phase. However, historically, inflation eventually peaks. Once it recedes and rate cut expectations rebuild, institutional capital could return, potentially fueling a new and more robust recovery phase for Bitcoin.

marsbit06/05 06:59

BIT Research: ETF Purchases Have Slowed, Strategy (MicroStrategy) Has Slowed, What Else Can Drive Bitcoin's Rise?

marsbit06/05 06:59

AI Leads Market Trend, Marvell Surges Over 14% in Night Trading, Gold Rises 1%, Aluminum at Four-Year High, Bitcoin Falls Below 70k

Global markets regained ground after a brief dip, driven by renewed buying in AI-related stocks. The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%, with Asian equities reversing early losses and the Nasdaq 100 futures narrowing declines. Marvell soared over 14% in after-hours trading. Meanwhile, Iran's suspension of talks with the US heightened Middle East tensions, impacting commodities. Brent crude hovered near $94 a barrel, while gold rose about 1%. Aluminum prices hit a four-year high above $3,775 per ton on supply concerns, and copper also gained. Bitcoin fell 1.4% to just over $70,000. Investors remain focused on AI-driven gains—evident in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's surge—but some warn of stretched valuations. Upcoming US economic data, including Friday's jobs report, will be closely watched for clues on Federal Reserve policy.

华尔街日报06/02 07:42

AI Leads Market Trend, Marvell Surges Over 14% in Night Trading, Gold Rises 1%, Aluminum at Four-Year High, Bitcoin Falls Below 70k

华尔街日报06/02 07:42

BIT Research: If It Followed Nasdaq, Bitcoin Should Be Close to $140,000

BIT Research: Bitcoin Price Analysis Under Inflation Re-pricing The market is currently undergoing a macro adjustment phase dominated by inflation re-pricing. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin had continued to follow Nasdaq's trajectory, its theoretical price would be near $140,000. However, a significant divergence between the two assets has emerged since October 2025. The core reason is the resurgence of US inflation, which has led to a reversal in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path. Recent data shows US CPI rising to 3.8% and PPI to 6.0%, prompting markets to scale back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. For Bitcoin, the previous supportive narrative of anticipated loose liquidity is weakening. Concurrently, escalating tensions involving Iran have driven oil prices up approximately 40% since late February 2026, heightening inflation concerns through rising energy costs. While the market currently views this inflation surge as a temporary pressure point, the interplay between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite is prompting a reassessment of the potential for a prolonged high-rate environment. In this context, Bitcoin has begun to underperform tech stocks, which can benefit from nominal inflation. The divergence stems from a key distinction: Bitcoin's past rallies were driven by loose liquidity and rate-cut expectations, not inflation itself. As a long-duration asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rate paths. When expectations for rate cuts are withdrawn, its valuation faces pressure. Unlike equities, which can benefit from increased nominal revenues and reduced real debt burdens during inflation, Bitcoin possesses neither debt that inflates away nor cash flows that expand with inflation, offering no direct structural benefit from rising prices. Looking ahead, the critical question is whether high inflation will force the Fed to maintain elevated rates for longer. The BIT model anticipates US CPI could potentially rise further to 6.0%. Additionally, factors like AI infrastructure expansion—driving data center construction and power demand—may sustain energy price pressures and extend the period of above-target inflation. In such an environment, tech stocks gain from order growth and improved earnings expectations, while Bitcoin remains susceptible to high-rate pressure. In summary, the current shift does not invalidate Bitcoin's long-term thesis but reflects a market re-evaluation of interest rate and liquidity paths amid resurgent inflation. In the short term, a high-inflation environment may continue to suppress Bitcoin's performance relative to Nasdaq. This represents a slowdown in its upward momentum rather than a bearish turn. Bitcoin could regain support once markets begin to reprice expectations for future liquidity easing.

marsbit05/15 10:07

BIT Research: If It Followed Nasdaq, Bitcoin Should Be Close to $140,000

marsbit05/15 10:07

Is the Rebound an Illusion? The Bond Market Has Already Given the Answer

Is the stock market's rapid rebound to pre-war levels a sign of recovery or a misleading rally driven by momentum rather than fundamentals? While the S&P 500 has fully recovered its losses from the U.S.-Iran conflict and nears all-time highs, bond and oil markets tell a different story. Key data reveals contradictions: 10-year Treasury yields have risen 30 basis points, signaling persistent inflation concerns and constrained Fed policy space. WTI crude is up 37%, indicating that geopolitical risks are not priced to resolve soon. The 2-year Treasury yield, a sensitive gauge of rate expectations, has increased nearly 40 bps, challenging the narrative of imminent Fed rate cuts. The equity market appears to be pricing in a "perfect scenario": subdued oil impact on consumption, Fed rate cuts despite hot inflation, stable corporate margins, and near-term conflict resolution. However, bonds and oil reflect a reality of sticky inflation, limited Fed flexibility, and ongoing geopolitical tension. This divergence suggests the rally may be momentum-driven rather than fundamentally justified. If upcoming CPI data exceeds expectations (e.g., above 3.5%), the 2026 rate-cut narrative could collapse. Investors chasing the rally are betting on an ideal outcome—swift conflict resolution, controlled inflation, Fed easing, and resilient earnings—while ignoring signals from more cautious asset classes. The gap will likely close either through a fundamental improvement validating stocks or a market correction aligning with bond and oil realities.

marsbit04/16 07:05

Is the Rebound an Illusion? The Bond Market Has Already Given the Answer

marsbit04/16 07:05

$700 Billion Poured into AI, Americans Taste the Bitter Fruit of Inflation First

A Federal Reserve analysis from the St. Louis Fed argues that AI optimism itself is a driver of inflation. The "news shock" of AI's revolutionary potential causes households and businesses to increase spending and investment in anticipation of future gains, pushing demand beyond current supply and creating inflationary pressure. This is supported by a Deutsche Bank experiment where AI models (dbLumina, Claude, ChatGPT-5.2) assessed a 20-40% probability that AI would raise inflation in the next year, citing surging demand for data centers, semiconductors, and electricity. They saw only a 5% chance of AI significantly reducing inflation. Massive capital expenditure underscores this demand. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are projected to spend a combined ~$663B in 2026, a fourfold increase in four years. A significant portion funds power-hungry data centers. For example, OpenAI's "Stargate" project plans a 10-gigawatt capacity, equivalent to the entire electricity load of 16 Vermont states. U.S. data center electricity consumption is forecast to triple by 2030. While AI could eventually boost productivity and be disinflationary long-term, current data shows no such productivity jump. The U.S. economy now faces a cycle: massive AI investment fuels inflation, delays interest rate cuts, raises financing costs—yet the investment continues to accelerate. The outcome hinges on whether these AI models will ultimately make the economy more efficient, a question that remains unanswered.

marsbit04/02 11:03

$700 Billion Poured into AI, Americans Taste the Bitter Fruit of Inflation First

marsbit04/02 11:03

Investors Pull $414M From Crypto Funds As Inflation, MidEast War Jitters Mount

Investors withdrew $414 million from crypto funds last week, ending a five-week inflow streak. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $296 million in outflows, reversing earlier gains. Ether suffered the largest outflows at $222 million, pushing its year-to-date performance negative. Bitcoin remained positive for the year despite $194 million in outflows. XRP was an exception, attracting $16 million. The sell-off was driven by inflation concerns, shifting expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes, and rising Middle East tensions, causing a broad shift away from riskier assets. Total assets under management fell to near $130 billion, levels last seen in early February.

bitcoinist03/31 07:02

Investors Pull $414M From Crypto Funds As Inflation, MidEast War Jitters Mount

bitcoinist03/31 07:02

Stop Focusing Only on Oil Prices, the Bond Market Is the Real Barometer

The bond market, not oil prices, has become the primary driver of global financial conditions amid the ongoing Iran war. Over the past 27 days, the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged 50 basis points to 4.42%, shifting market expectations from multiple 2026 rate cuts to potential hikes. This rapid rise reflects renewed inflation fears, with 12-month expectations hitting 5.2%, while the labor market shows persistent weakness—over 1 million jobs were revised away for 2025. Historical "Policy Shift Zone" of 4.50%-4.70% for the 10-year yield is critical; breaching it likely triggers government intervention, as seen in past crises. Recent signals, including delayed strikes and peace talks," suggest such moves may be imminent. While oil remains elevated near $100/barrel, bond volatility now dictates equity pressures and policy responses. The administration’s market sensitivity implies interventions to prevent economic deterioration, likely leading to conflict de-escalation within weeks, not months. Despite short-term turbulence, the AI revolution continues accelerating. Monitor bonds—they’re setting the risk boundary.

marsbit03/27 06:55

Stop Focusing Only on Oil Prices, the Bond Market Is the Real Barometer

marsbit03/27 06:55

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

An article explores the potential impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields above 5% on Bitcoin's price, suggesting it could fall below $50,000. The analysis is prompted by the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which has driven oil prices higher and fueled inflation fears, pushing bond yields up. Historically, prolonged oil-related conflicts lead to sustained yield increases and pressure on risk assets like stocks. Given Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500, similar downward pressure is expected. Technical analysis indicates a bearish flag pattern for Bitcoin, with a break below it potentially leading to a drop to $50,000 or lower. Prediction markets also show a high probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 in 2026. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes notes that prolonged conflict might force the Fed to print more money, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin.

marsbit03/25 09:36

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

marsbit03/25 09:36

Oil Shock Not Yet Arrived, Stock Market Bubble Already Looms High

Economist Steve Hanke warns that while oil price shocks from Middle East tensions are concerning, the real threat lies in the U.S. stock market's extreme overvaluation and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policies. Unlike the 1979 oil crisis, today's oil supply disruption risks are lower due to structural changes: Iran's global oil share dropped from 8.5% to 5.2%, U.S. production increased, and oil intensity per GDP fell sharply. Hanke emphasizes that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon, not directly caused by oil prices, and criticizes the Fed for resuming quantitative easing amid rising M2 supply. He argues the equity bubble—with P/E ratios near 29x versus 8x in 1979—is highly vulnerable to external shocks. Geopolitically, he dismisses "de-dollarization" narratives as baseless, highlights the stability of dollar-pegged currencies like Hong Kong's, and warns that U.S.-led regime change efforts in Iran are historically futile and risk creating long-term global animosity. The broader economic impact includes potential wealth destruction from market corrections and misguided policies like tariffs harming employment.

比推03/12 04:20

Oil Shock Not Yet Arrived, Stock Market Bubble Already Looms High

比推03/12 04:20

Huobi Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Report: Repricing of Crypto Assets Amid Receding Liquidity

In Q1 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a historic deleveraging crash, with Bitcoin falling over 40% from its peak and Ethereum and altcoins declining even more sharply. The collapse was driven by a confluence of three major liquidity-tightening factors: the unwinding of yen carry trades, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account rebuild draining market liquidity, and systemic increases in derivatives margin requirements. These factors, combined with the crypto market’s inherent high leverage and overvaluation, triggered a cascading sell-off. The report highlights that U.S. stock market’s extreme valuations acted as a ceiling for risk assets, including crypto. The reversal of yen carry trades—where investors borrowed cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like crypto—accelerated as the Bank of Japan signaled a potential end to ultra-loose policies. Simultaneously, the U.S. Treasury’s replenishment of its TGA account and increased bond issuance withdrew nearly $200 billion in liquidity from financial markets. Additionally, rising margin requirements on derivatives exchanges forced further deleveraging, exacerbating the downturn. Crypto’s structural vulnerabilities—such as high leverage, stagnant stablecoin inflows, and declining on-chain activity—amplified the sell-off. Looking ahead, crypto markets are entering a macro-driven phase where liquidity indicators—such as Fed policy, TGA balances, yen-USD exchange rates, and stablecoin flows—will be critical. The market is expected to remain under pressure until macro liquidity conditions improve, likely in the second half of 2026. The era of excess-liquidity-driven growth is over; crypto assets will now be repriced under a new macro-normal regime.

marsbit02/26 08:11

Huobi Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Report: Repricing of Crypto Assets Amid Receding Liquidity