QCP Capital: Ethereum движется к $4 000 на фоне рекордного притока капитала в ETF

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-09-27Last updated on 2025-09-27

Трейдинговая фирма QCP Capital опубликовала новый отчет, в котором отмечает стремительный рост Ethereum к отметке $4 000 впервые с декабря прошлого года. По данным аналитиков, приток инвестиций в спотовые Ethereum-ETF превосходит биткоин-фонды уже семь дней подряд.

1-дневный график ETH/USDT. Источник: скринер криптовалют Cryptovizor

Ethereum набирает обороты

Капитализация Ethereum составляет лишь одну пятую от биткоина, что означает — для движения цены требуется значительно меньший объем институционального и корпоративного капитала. Эта особенность делает вторую по величине криптовалюту более чувствительной к притоку инвестиций.

Несмотря на замедление притока в спотовые биткоин-ETF, первая криптовалюта демонстрирует устойчивость. Даже продажа 80 000 биткоинов 25 июля давним держателем была относительно легко поглощена рынком — трейдеры быстро скупили просадку и нивелировали кратковременный всплеск волатильности.

Доминирование биткоина остается стабильным

Доминирование биткоина закрепилось на уровне 60% и практически не изменилось за последнюю неделю. Это указывает на сохраняющуюся уверенность в биткоине как активе для сбережения, а не на массовый переход в альткоины.

1-недельный график доминирования биткоина

QCP Capital подчеркивает, что такая ситуация подразумевает дополнительные возможности для роста доли Ethereum и других крупных криптовалют. Для сравнения: во время исторического максимума Ethereum в ноябре 2021 года доминирование биткоина составляло менее 45%, а доля Ethereum приближалась к 20%.

Позиционирование выглядит перегретым

Открытый интерес по фьючерсам находится около годовых максимумов — $45 млрд для биткоина и $28 млрд для Ethereum. Ставки финансирования по фьючерсам также превышают 15% на основных биржах.

Хотя эти показатели еще не достигли критических значений, которые могли бы спровоцировать массовые распродажи, даже небольшого толчка будет достаточно для запуска волны ликвидаций длинных позиций. Некоторые крупные игроки уже зафиксировали прибыль по бычьим позициям, включая закрытие крупной стратегии Call Fly по Ethereum с экспирацией 26 сентября и страйками 3 600/4 000/4 200 долларов.

Опционные стратегии указывают на фиксацию прибыли

Одновременно были активно скуплены путы на биткоин со страйком $110 000 с экспирацией 8 августа в качестве хеджирования от краткосрочного снижения.

Активность на опционном рынке и выровненные соотношения риска по краткосрочным срокам указывают на ожидания рынком фиксации прибыли в районе $4 000 для Ethereum и $120 000 для биткоина.

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