Is LIT’s burn worth $42 million enough to spur the altcoin’s next big rally?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-07-12Last updated on 2026-07-12

Abstract

Lighter (LIT) has experienced significant volatility, rallying 18% over the past week but facing potential overbought conditions. After a warning of a correction toward $2, the price dipped to $2.3 before recovering to $2.60. A major catalyst was the recent burn of over 15.6 million LIT tokens (worth ~$42 million), representing 6.3% of the circulating supply, which may have spurred short-term bullish momentum toward $3. Technical analysis on the 1-day chart shows a bearish divergence with the RSI, signaling a potential pullback despite strong demand. The key Fibonacci retracement level to watch is $2.30. On the 4-hour chart, LIT is forming a range between $2.31 and $2.68. The suggested strategy is to wait for a breakout above $2.70 to target $3.06-$3.21, or a breakdown below $2.31 for a likely deeper retracement below $2. In summary, while bullish momentum persists, traders should monitor the range boundaries for the next directional move.

Lighter [LIT] has rallied by 3.68% in the last 24 hours with a daily trading volume spike of 13.52%. Over the past week alone, the token rallied by 18%.

In a recent report, AMBCrypto warned that the token was potentially overbought and might see a correction toward $2. Now, in the days after, LIT did fall by around 13% to reach $2.3. However, it has since climbed back to $2.60 once more.

Source: Etherscan

In a post on X, Lighter revealed the burn of just over 15.6 million LIT tokens, worth more than $42 million. It represented approximately 6.3% of the LIT circulating supply of 250 million tokens and 1.5% of the total supply of 1 billion.

This massive burn on 10th of July could have sparked short-term bullish momentum for the altcoin. In fact, the price action showed that a move towards $3 might not be far.

Why Lighter price trends might be overextended

Source: LIT/USDT on TradingView

The 1-day chart revealed a bearish divergence. The RSI made a lower high while the price made a higher high, a classic bearish divergence. The volume trends were steadily bullish, but the bearish momentum divergence warned of a potential price pullback.

Despite the divergence though, demand for the altcoin has been strong.

Based on the swing move higher from $0.83 to $2.76, Fibonacci retracement levels were plotted.

If LIT falls below $2.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, swing traders and investors can wait for a deeper retracement. Patience is required until then.

Traders’ call to action – Play the range

Source: LIT/USDT on TradingView

The 1-day chart warned of a pullback. The 4-hour chart showed a range formation between $2.31 and $2.68 form. Neither extreme of the range has been breached so far after two tries in July.

Traders can wait for a bullish breakout past $2.70 to buy LIT, targeting $3.06 and $3.21. On the other hand, a breakdown below the $2.31 range low, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-day timeframe at $2.30, would indicate a pullback below $2 was becoming more likely.


Final Summary

  • Demand and bullish momentum for Lighter continued to hold sway, despite a bearish momentum divergence signal.
  • Traders would want to watch the short-term range formation for clues on the next impulse move’s direction.

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Related Questions

QHow has Lighter's (LIT) price performed in the recent short term?

ALighter (LIT) has rallied by 3.68% in the last 24 hours and by 18% over the past week. After a brief correction to around $2.3, it has climbed back to $2.60.

QWhat significant event involving LIT tokens occurred recently, and what was its scale?

AOn July 10th, Lighter revealed the burn of just over 15.6 million LIT tokens, worth more than $42 million. This represented approximately 6.3% of the circulating supply and 1.5% of the total supply.

QWhat technical indicator on the 1-day chart suggests a potential price pullback for LIT?

AThe 1-day chart shows a bearish divergence, where the RSI made a lower high while the price made a higher high. This is a classic warning signal for a potential price pullback.

QAccording to the article, what are the suggested trading levels based on the 4-hour chart's range formation?

AThe 4-hour chart shows a range between $2.31 and $2.68. Traders are advised to wait for a bullish breakout past $2.70 to buy, targeting $3.06 and $3.21. A breakdown below $2.31 would indicate a likely pullback below $2.

QWhat is the article's overall stance on the interplay between LIT's demand and its technical signals?

AThe article states that demand and bullish momentum for Lighter continue to hold sway, despite a bearish momentum divergence signal. The short-term range formation is key for determining the direction of the next impulse move.

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