Matrixport投研：BTC价格突破新高 ，市场长期配置意图明显

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-05-23Last updated on 2025-05-23

Abstract

散户参与率降低，大型机构投资者成为配置BTC的重要参与者。

BTC 价格已突破 11 万美元大关。尽管地缘政治紧张局势和关税相关消息使整体市场环境充满不确定性，但合理操作依旧可把握本轮上涨行情带来的机会。

本轮行情散户参与度低，大型持币者动态成为价格波动的关键指标

尽管 BTC 价格已创下历史新高，但传统的散户参与指标依然出奇地低迷，导致不少交易者错过了本轮上涨。这轮行情在很大程度上缺乏散户资金的推动。与以往牛市中的热烈氛围和情绪亢奋不同，此次上涨明显缺乏散户动能。资金费率持续处于低位，散户交易活跃度极低，其他主流加密资产的表现也整体落后。

与以往的牛市周期不同，当前散户在 BTC 持有结构中的占比已不再上升。这与一种广泛流传的观点相悖——认为 BTC 仍处于吸纳数十亿新增用户的早期阶段。而链上数据显示，流通中的大量 BTC 正在被少数鲸鱼级钱包持续吸收。

随着这一趋势的加速演进，厘清企业级需求如何驱动价格行为及其延续周期，已成为市场判断的关键。持续监测链上数据与钱包活跃度，将有助于洞察持币权力结构的演变方向，并识别大型持币者可能入场或减仓的关键价格区间。

BTC 权属转移进行时，市场长期配置意图明显

本轮行情中，散户基本缺席，这一现象很好地解释了为何资金费率和交易量持续低迷。我们正在目睹一场悄然且有序的 BTC 权属转移——从早期用户、投资者、矿工与交易所，逐步流向以 MicroStrategy 为代表的新一代机构投资者。这一结构性转变也进一步说明了看涨期权需求持续疲软，隐含波动率亦维持在低位。

当前这一轮上涨主要由现货市场的持续吸筹推动，而非投机性的衍生品交易，反映出的是市场的长期配置意图，而非短期炒作情绪。

在突发性市场回调中，部分交易者常因判断失误而承受较大损失。造成亏损的关键并非是在急跌中临时平仓——在某些情况下，这一做法具备合理性。真正的问题在于：他们未能提前识别潜在的回调风险，甚至在相关预警信号已出现时，依然选择忽视分析结论。

免责声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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