How Long Will the Memory Boom Last?
"The semiconductor storage market is currently experiencing an unprecedented, explosive boom, primarily driven by DRAM and NAND flash. This growth, characterized by a near-vertical surge since 2024, is not due to a massive increase in shipment volume but rather an abnormal spike in prices—approximately a tenfold increase from 2025 to 2026 for both DRAM and NAND. This price surge stems from a severe supply-demand imbalance caused by massive capital investments from hyperscale data center operators (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) building AI data centers, which act like a "black hole" consuming high-performance memory, particularly HBM. This redirects production capacity away from consumer electronics (PCs, smartphones), creating critical shortages and driving up prices further.
The AI-driven boom has rendered previous market forecasts obsolete, with the global semiconductor market now projected to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2026, largely propelled by memory and logic (including GPUs). However, historical analysis of the memory market reveals a consistent pattern: periods of positive annual growth have never lasted more than five consecutive years, inevitably followed by a downturn due to the "silicon cycle" of overinvestment and subsequent oversupply. Given that the current upswing began around 2023, history suggests a peak is likely by 2027-2028. Furthermore, the higher the peak, the deeper the subsequent trough. The current 285% annual growth rate is a historical anomaly, implying the coming recession could be exceptionally severe. While memory manufacturers' stock prices and profits are currently soaring, the author urges the industry to prepare practically for the inevitable downturn while the boom continues."
链捕手07/14 14:50
