В биткоин-метриках обнаружили тревожные сигналы

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2023-11-28Last updated on 2025-03-28

Биткоин рискует перейти в фазу падения цены, поскольку метрика Bitcoin Macro Index от основателя Capriole Investments Чарльза Эдвардса демонстрирует медвежью дивергенцию.

Not great. But… when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won't be fighting it. https://t.co/PB2OPW1VnL

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) March 28, 2025

«Не очень здорово. Но если Bitcoin Macro Index станет положительным, я не буду против», — с оптимизмом прокомментировал эксперт.

Созданный Эдвардсом в 2022 году индекс использует машинное обучение для анализа большого числа показателей. Согласно описанию, они «дают четкое представление об относительной стоимости биткоина на протяжении исторических циклов». Ценовые данные и ТА в метрике не учитываются.

С конца 2023 года Bitcoin Macro Index демонстрирует все более низкие экстремумы, тогда как цена первой криптовалюты выходит на новые максимумы. Это исторически характерно для бычьих рынков, но также указывают на достижение долгосрочного пика в паре BTC/USD.

Аналитики CryptoQuant отметили на сразу четыре тревожных сигнала для цифрового золота:

  • метрика Bitcoin IFP остается ниже тренда 90 SMA;
  • Bitcoin CQ также остается в медвежьей зоне, указывая на возможную глубокую коррекцию;
  • индикатор MVRV находится под линией 365 SMA, что означает усиление давления продаж;
  • NUPL также не может пробить вверх 365 SMA.

«Все эти метрики указывают на то, что биткоин испытывает значительную турбулентность в краткосрочной и среднесрочной перспективе. Однако ни одна из них не означает, что актив достиг перегретого или циклического уровня. Это напоминает кризис кэрри-трейда 5 августа 2024 года, который также привел к снижению цены из-за макроэкономических условий», — отметили эксперты, сославшись на торговые тарифы президента США Дональда Трампа.

Напомним, в Santiment зафиксировали снижение объема биткоина на биржах, что свидетельствует о сокращении давления продаж

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