# Polymarket Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Polymarket", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

UK Financial Regulator Considering Lifting Ban on Prediction Markets: Media

The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is reportedly considering relaxing a 2019 ban that prevents UK-based retail investors from trading on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. These markets offer binary options contracts on events in sports, politics, and weather, which the FCA had previously categorized as "gambling products masquerading as financial instruments." The review follows reports that UK retail investors have been using VPNs to bypass the restrictions and trade on these US-based platforms. The prediction market industry is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting global trade volumes could reach up to $1 trillion by 2030. However, if the ban is lifted, platforms may face regulatory challenges similar to those in the US, where state gaming authorities are filing lawsuits against companies over sports-related contracts. For instance, New Jersey authorities recently petitioned the Supreme Court to hear a case against Kalshi, which could clarify state versus federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.

cryptonews.ru1h ago

UK Financial Regulator Considering Lifting Ban on Prediction Markets: Media

cryptonews.ru1h ago

Polymarket Report for H1 2026: High-Frequency Traders, or Superforecasters?

**Polymarket 2026 H1 Report: Summary** The report analyzes Polymarket's two distinct markets in the first half of 2026: the international platform and the newer, CFTC-regulated US market. **Key Market Dynamics:** * The US market grew rapidly, reaching 67% of the international market's volume by July. * Sports and crypto markets are the primary fee engines for the international platform, generating 98% of its ~$184M in gross fees, with crypto producing more fees despite lower volume. * High turnover categories drive volume; capital efficiency (turnover) is more determined by market category (e.g., crypto, sports) than by platform. **User & Growth Analysis (International Market):** * User activity is highly concentrated: ~6% of wallets (robots & professional users) account for ~80% of taker volume. Robots (~5.9% of wallets) execute ~2/3 of all trades. * User growth is flat (monthly active wallets ~590k), with significant churn (43-49% monthly) offset by ~1.13M new wallets. * User acquisition is decentralized; no single "blockbuster" market drives growth. The top market brought in <7k new wallets. * Platform retention is 51-57% month-over-month, but users frequently switch from their initial category of entry to others. World/Geo-politics acts as a connective layer between user interests. **Market Microstructure & Profitability:** * Analysis segments users into **Robots, Professional/Informed, and Retail** based on behavioral heuristics. * **Robots** dominate volume in crypto (~80%) and sports (~72%), but constitute a small fraction of wallets per category. * **Fee sensitivity experiments** show fees reduce activity from Professional users more than from Retail or Robots. * **Entry timing** varies by category. Users typically enter sports/crypto markets very late (>90% through lifecycle), while weather markets see earlier entry. * **Profitability:** Robots as a group netted ~$108M in gross PnL, while Retail and Professional users were net losers. However, only 27% of robot wallets were profitable. Sustained profitability is rare; only 146 wallets had positive cash flow for six consecutive months. Gross PnL across all users nets to approximately zero before fees.

marsbit13h ago

Polymarket Report for H1 2026: High-Frequency Traders, or Superforecasters?

marsbit13h ago

Polymarket, a Decentralized Prediction Platform, Announces Launch of Its Futures Trading Platform with 20x Leverage!

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has launched a new service called "Polymarket Perps" for trading perpetual futures contracts. The platform supports nine asset classes, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as well as traditional assets such as gold, silver, WTI crude oil, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. A notable feature is the inclusion of SpaceX stock among its offerings. Polymarket Perps allows users to take leveraged positions of up to 20x on price movements. The company views this launch as an expansion beyond its core prediction markets into the broader financial derivatives space.

cryptonews.ru09/04 09:21

Polymarket, a Decentralized Prediction Platform, Announces Launch of Its Futures Trading Platform with 20x Leverage!

cryptonews.ru09/04 09:21

Polymarket traders assess the probability of Kanye West concert in Russia

Traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are placing bets on the probability of a Kanye West concert in Russia before the end of October, currently estimating the chances at 35%. The American rapper's concerts in Russia, scheduled for October 10-11 at St. Petersburg's Gazprom Arena, were announced on August 17. Subsequent reports suggested potential cancellations, noting tickets were sold without the venue's approval. However, on September 3, Anna Subcheva, head of the concert agency Say Agency, confirmed the shows are not canceled. The betting market on Polymarket opened on August 19 and has since seen a trading volume of $281,000. Over 100,000 tickets for West's concert were sold out in the first two days. The article also explores what rights ticket holders would have if the show is ultimately canceled and outlines the stance of Russia's consumer protection watchdog, Rospotrebnadzor. A disclaimer notes that Polymarket's rules prohibit users from Russia from placing bets.

cryptonews.ru09/03 21:35

Polymarket traders assess the probability of Kanye West concert in Russia

cryptonews.ru09/03 21:35

Bitcoin reclaims $80K as DXY falls amid continuing suspected yen intervention

Bitcoin surged past $81,000, rallying 5% during US trading hours. This upward movement coincided with a sharp drop in the USD/JPY pair to 155.4, driven by suspected Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention to support the yen. The intervention weakened the US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to 99—a historically positive signal for Bitcoin. Analysts note that the suspected BOJ action and a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the BOJ's upcoming September 18 meeting have revived fears of a carry-trade unwind, similar to events in Q3 2024. Meanwhile, some view the currency moves as liquidity-positive for markets. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy (MSTR) also saw its shares rise 8.6% amid the broader crypto rally.

cointelegraph09/03 18:55

Bitcoin reclaims $80K as DXY falls amid continuing suspected yen intervention

cointelegraph09/03 18:55

French Hill highlights CLARITY Act, with 15% probability of passage in 2026

The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633), a U.S. bill to establish federal crypto market rules, faces low odds of becoming law in 2026, according to prediction markets. While the House has passed it, the bill's progress in the Senate is uncertain. Prediction markets on Polymarket gave it just a 15% chance of full enactment by year-end, despite public support from lawmakers like Rep. French Hill. A key procedural vote (cloture) is scheduled for September 15th, requiring 60 Senate votes to advance; failure would likely doom its 2026 prospects. Traders see a higher probability (30-50%) of similar legislation passing by 2027 or 2028. The revised bill addresses SEC/CFTC jurisdiction, consumer protection, and oversight of crypto intermediaries.

cryptonews.ru09/03 05:12

French Hill highlights CLARITY Act, with 15% probability of passage in 2026

cryptonews.ru09/03 05:12

Donald Trump Jr.-linked firm 1789 Capital to lead $1B Polymarket round: Report

A company linked to Donald Trump Jr., 1789 Capital, is reportedly leading a $1 billion funding round for blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket, according to The Wall Street Journal. 1789 Capital will invest around $300 million, bringing its total investment in Polymarket to approximately $500 million and making it one of the platform's largest investors. This funding round could value Polymarket at $21 billion. ICE remains the largest disclosed investor, with a $1.6 billion investment. The report follows earlier news that Polymarket sought $400 million in April at a potential $15 billion valuation. Prediction markets face increasing regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. and globally, with JPMorgan Chase recently ending banking services for Polymarket due to regulatory concerns, and over a dozen U.S. states taking legal action against Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi.

cryptonews.ru09/01 08:46

Donald Trump Jr.-linked firm 1789 Capital to lead $1B Polymarket round: Report

cryptonews.ru09/01 08:46

3 Billion Follow-on Investment in Polymarket, Unveiling 1789Capital Where Trump's Eldest Son Is Involved

1789 Capital, a venture capital fund with Donald Trump Jr. as a partner, plans to invest an additional $3 billion in prediction market platform Polymarket as part of a larger $10 billion funding round. The fund, founded in 2022 by Omeed Malik, Chris Buskirk, and Rebekah Mercer with an anti-ESG, "EIG" (Enterprise, Innovation, Growth) ethos, has seen its assets under management skyrocket from ~$200 million to ~$35 billion within a year, reportedly delivering strong returns. Its portfolio heavily targets defense, aerospace, AI, and "parallel economy" companies like SpaceX, Anduril, and Cerebras. Trump Jr., who joined the fund post the 2024 election, advocated for Polymarket as a tool to bypass traditional media narratives. This investment is seen as part of 1789 Capital's strategy to build an "anti-establishment information ecosystem" linking platforms like X, media like Tucker Carlson's venture, and prediction markets. However, the deep political ties raise concerns about potential market manipulation and regulatory scrutiny. The move signifies prediction markets' evolution from crypto niches to contested alternative financial infrastructure.

marsbit09/01 06:41

3 Billion Follow-on Investment in Polymarket, Unveiling 1789Capital Where Trump's Eldest Son Is Involved

marsbit09/01 06:41

Same Election Question, Two Different Odds: Predictions.io Launches Free Cross-Venue Comparison Tools

Prediction market platform Predictions.io has launched free tools to compare prices and fees across different venues, highlighting significant price discrepancies for identical political questions. In August 2026, record market volumes coincided with increased regulatory scrutiny. Predictions.io's analysis of over 9,700 markets from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold found that identically worded questions, such as "Blue tsunami in 2026?", traded with price gaps as wide as 8.5 percentage points between platforms. The company argues that the spread between venues provides crucial information often missed when citing a single price. Its new tools include a fee calculator to compare costs across platforms and an odds converter. Predictions.io is a data aggregator and does not operate its own markets.

TheNewsCrypto08/28 13:05

Same Election Question, Two Different Odds: Predictions.io Launches Free Cross-Venue Comparison Tools

TheNewsCrypto08/28 13:05

A Precedent for the Prediction Markets: CFTC Aims to Prove Authority Over Polymarket via Criminal Case

A U.S. Army soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who earned $400,000 using non-public information on the crypto event-prediction platform Polymarket, is contesting the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) attempt to intervene in his criminal case. The CFTC, which initiated a separate civil suit against Van Dyke but has not pursued it to trial, seeks to submit arguments in the ongoing criminal proceeding. Van Dyke's lawyers filed a motion opposing this, arguing the CFTC is improperly trying to influence the criminal case as an outside expert rather than through its own lawsuit. They contend that event contracts traded on platforms like Polymarket are not swaps and thus fall outside the CFTC's jurisdiction, calling the regulator's tactics a procedural maneuver. Van Dyke faces criminal fraud charges for allegedly trading based on confidential information about potential regime change in Venezuela. His civil case with the CFTC is stayed pending the criminal trial, expected in late 2026 or early 2027. The court's decision on whether to allow the CFTC's intervention could set a precedent for how such event contracts are regulated. An AI analysis notes inconsistency in the CFTC's approach compared to a similar case involving a Google employee, raising questions about the legal strategy for the prediction market industry, which includes platforms like Kalshi. The outcome may define future regulatory standards for the entire market.

cryptonews.ru08/25 08:31

A Precedent for the Prediction Markets: CFTC Aims to Prove Authority Over Polymarket via Criminal Case

cryptonews.ru08/25 08:31

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