市场波动与策略应对：把握比特币机会与被动收益｜每周市场洞察回顾

MatrixportPublished on 2024-10-12Last updated on 2025-01-17

10月10日晚8点，Matrixport 官方 YouTube 频道直播中，Matrixport 资产管理主管分析了上周（10月1日-10月9日）BTC 和 ETH 的价格在全球宏观经济、流动性变化以及市场情绪影响下大幅波动背后的原因，并探讨了当前期权市场的机构行为，为投资者提供了未来可关注的投资方向与策略建议。

直播内容如下

在10月的第一周，BTC 价格从6.1万美元回落至6万美元以下。背后原因是全球宏观经济的不确定性加剧，加密资产市场面临来自多方面的抛压。中国政策变化导致的资金回流也加大了市场压力，拖累了 BTC 短期的反弹。

市场波动原因分析

宏观经济与市场情绪的波动

近期，全球股市的表现也对加密市场产生了显著影响。A股在中国央行降准和调整房贷利率等政策刺激下出现小幅反弹，但这并未对加密市场形成有力支撑。反而由于资本流动向传统金融市场的回归，全球资金回流至传统市场的态势增强了加密资产的下行压力。

美股与加密市场的联动

美国的非农就业数据超出预期，强劲的数据推动美股反弹，进而带动了与美股关联度较高的 BTC 价格的短期上行。然而，与黄金作为避险资产不同，BTC 作为风险资产的属性更加突出。在全球地缘政治风险加剧的背景下，黄金价格随着中东局势紧张而上涨，但 BTC 未能展现出避险属性，反而在美股回调时同步下跌，表明市场将其视为高风险投资品种，而非避险工具。

在这次反弹中，中小市值 Token（山寨币）的表现优于 BTC，表明风险资产在资金回流期间表现更好。这也显示了加密市场的投机性质依然较强，市场流动性更多地集中于高波动性的小市值资产上。

技术面与市场抛压的影响

从技术面来看，BTC 在6万美元附近震荡，未能有效突破50日与200日均线之间的阻力位。每次市场反弹至6.1万美元以上时，都会伴随着较强的抛售压力。这表明市场仍在消化大规模的抛压，尚未形成稳定的上行趋势。

ETH 方面，自前期大幅下跌后，价格跌至2000美元以下，市场需求依然疲软。虽然 ETH 的去中心化应用具有较强的基本面支撑，但当前链上活动的减少和 DeFi 领域需求的疲软拖累了 ETH 的价格表现。其价格表现远逊于 BTC，显示出 ETH 短期内尚未摆脱下行压力。

当前背景下期权市场与机构行为

期权市场的波动与机构行为

随着全球宏观经济的不确定性增加，期权市场的波动率也显著上升。特别是在11月美国大选临近的背景下，期权市场的波动预期变得更为明显，机构投资者利用期权市场对冲未来的市场波动风险。

期权市场数据显示，短期波动率依然较低，但11月的波动率预期显著提高，特别是在大选前后波动率达到年度最高值。这表明市场对政治事件的影响极为关注，机构投资者通过期权市场提前布局，规避市场剧烈波动的风险。例如，一些大型机构在期权到期日（如9月底和10月初）前后加大了期权交易规模，通过购买看涨期权和看跌期权的“双向策略”来对冲未来的价格波动。

这种“双买策略”可以使机构在市场出现大幅波动时无论上涨还是下跌都获利。与此同时，美国比特币 ETF 的推出也吸引了更多传统金融机构参与到加密资产期权交易中，推动了期权市场的活跃度上升。

资金费率的变化与市场情绪

从资金费率来看，加密市场的套利机会逐渐减少。年初资金费率套利收益较高，但目前已下降到约8%的水平，与美国国债的收益率相差不大。这表明无风险套利空间正在缩小，特别是在全球利率环境变动的情况下，资金更倾向于流入传统金融市场，进一步加剧了加密市场的资金流动压力。

这一现象表明，加密市场的流动性短期内较为紧张，市场的波动性增加，而机构投资者更倾向于利用期权市场进行波动率交易，以获取相对稳定的收益。

可关注投资方向

波动率优势策略：应对市场波动的有效工具

当前市场中的波动率预期正在增加，尤其是随着美国大选临近，波动率将进一步上升。这为投资者提供了通过波动率交易进行收益优化的机会。在10月和11月期间，期权市场的波动率曲线显示出市场对于不确定事件的预期增强，特别是对冲政治风险的需求激增。

在当前环境下，波动率优势策略是一种有效的风险管理手段。通过购买看涨期权和看跌期权的组合，投资者可以在大幅波动的市场中获利，无论市场是上涨还是下跌。

被动策略：M-BTC备兑策略的优势

面对当前市场的频繁震荡，Matrixport 推出的 M-BTC 备兑策略是一种有效的稳健收益工具，专为长期持有 BTC 的投资者设计。此策略允许投资者通过持有 BTC 现货并卖出 BTC 看涨期权来获得稳定的期权费收入。

该策略的一个主要优势是透明度高、风险低。备兑策略特别适合那些不愿承担高频交易风险的投资者。通过这种策略，投资者可以在震荡行情中获得稳定的被动收益，并且相较于单纯持有 BTC，这种策略能有效减少因市场大幅波动带来的损失。

例如，在市场震荡期，持有 BTC 现货的投资者可以通过每两周卖出一次看涨期权，获得期权费收入。如果 BTC 价格上涨超过设定的行权价，投资者虽然可能失去一部分向上的收益，但整体回报依然稳健且具有吸引力。这种策略在市场波动较大、投资者预期不确定的情况下，尤为适用。

此外，与传统质押借贷相比，备兑策略无需追加保证金，且融资成本相对较低，是一种高效的融资与收益管理工具。

总结

在当前全球宏观经济不确定性增加的背景下，投资者应更加注重风险管理和稳定收益策略。BTC 和 ETH 的长期趋势仍然具备吸引力，但短期内市场波动较大，投资者需要灵活运用期权策略来规避风险并提升收益。

Matrixport 将继续推出更多创新性金融产品，以帮助投资者在当前复杂的市场环境中实现资产的稳步增值。通过像 M-BTC 备兑策略这样的被动策略，投资者可以在不失去潜在增长机会的情况下，确保在震荡市场中获得稳定回报。

更多精彩内容可查看 YouTube 内容回放：https://youtube.com/live/FyUF_2mnT84?feature=share

关于Matrixport 每周市场洞察
【Matrixport 每周市场洞察】是由Matrixport 全新推出的互动型知识分享栏目，每周于Matrixport 官方YouTube频道直播。本栏目会定期邀请业内产品大佬，顶级分析师还有KOL做客，跟大家探讨不同行情下的投资逻辑，分享投资心得，助力用户实现资产增值。
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免责声明：上述内容不构成对香港特别行政区、美国、新加坡以及法律可能禁止此类要约或要约邀请的其他国家或地区的居民的投资建议、销售要约或购买要约邀请。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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