最近的市场动荡表明比特币绝对不是“数字黄金”

币界网Published on 2024-08-13Last updated on 2024-08-13

币界网报道:

比特币的供应有限,加上它脱离了政府的控制,往往导致市场居民相信,领先的加密货币是黄金的数字等价物。

作为一种价值储存手段,比特币因此被视为一种对冲通胀的工具,就像黄金一样。然而,在加密货币大幅抛售之后,比特币是黄金替代品的论点已经持平。

市场动荡

尽管加密代币从上周初自2022年FTX崩溃以来最严重的抛售中恢复过来,但周一数字资产再次大幅下跌。

此前,比特币周四创下16个多月来最大单日涨幅,尽管全球领先的加密货币在近8月跌至5万美元以下。

上周的那一天,最大的数字货币增长了8.6%,超过了59800美元。但此后,该代币再次回落,交易价格约为58.600美元。

对于该行业来说,这无疑是一个动荡的时期,但周一的崩盘表明,加密货币就像风险资产,而不是避险押注。

比特币是“数字黄金”,应该被纳入投资组合以防止股票波动的行业公理正在接受前所未有的测试。

比特币作为股票

周一市场暴跌,套利交易破裂时,比特币的表现更像股票而非黄金。

有一次,顶级代币下跌了17%,跌至5万美元以下,然后收复了部分损失。

上个月,比特币与黄金的相关性变为负值,打破了代币作为经济对冲的理论。

一些分析师表示,假设机构投资者出于与黄金相同的理由将资本分配给比特币,并且这两种资产在投资组合中具有不同的功能,这是不可行的。

一些人还认为,比特币价值的大幅下跌证明了加密货币极易受到风险的影响。

这包括经济衰退的可能性。

比特币不利于恐慌

如果上周一的抛售有任何迹象表明,当投资者经历恐慌时,加密货币可能是他们抛售的首批资产之一。

比特币和黄金的相对稀缺性是这两种资产之间许多比较的共同主题。

与地球地下黄金储量有限的情况类似,比特币网络被编程为通过“减半”每四年自动减少新代币的发行

尽管如此,一些分析师仍不愿否认比特币作为“数字黄金”理论可能是正确的。

尽管自7月初以来比特币下跌了13%,但它仍然是全球表现最好的资产之一。今年迄今为止,金价已上涨26%,轻松超过黄金。

最重要的是,1月初美国现货比特币ETF的推出推动了这一增长。

然而,它作为通胀对冲手段惨遭失败,在高利率影响的迹象变得明显时,价格却在顽固地攀升和下跌。

目前,比特币作为避险对冲理论的价值正在下降。

BRN说

比特币可能不像许多加密货币迷所梦想的那样是数字黄金,但它最近的价格走势可能为增加储备提供了一个很好的机会。

BRN分析师Valentin Fournier表示:“昨天,我们提到的58500美元水平保持强劲,比特币在回到59500美元之前突破了60500美元。”。

“正如我们所预测的那样,势头很低,但仍然是积极的。我们看到比特币在未来几周将接近其区间的上限(67000美元-69000美元)。”

#KamalaHarris在#crypto上的立场仍然未知,根据Polymarket的选举民意调查,他已成为总统的最爱。一条线

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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