沉寂五年Mt.Gox地址首次大额转移,14万枚BTC会带崩市场吗?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-29Last updated on 2024-05-29

Abstract

根据赔付受托人最终实施方案的不同,市场将面临不同程度的抛压,但将通过较长一段时间消化。

原创 | Odaily星球日报

作者 | 南枳

沉寂五年Mt.Gox地址首次大额转移,14万枚BTC会带崩市场吗?

昨日上午,沉寂了 5 年的 Mt.Gox 相关地址开始连续对外转出大额比特币,从几千枚到几万枚不等。目前 Mt.Gox 的 BTC 存量达 14.168 万枚,价值近百亿美元,市场开始担心可能带来的抛压风险,BTC 也从昨日上午九时的 69400 USDT 价格最低下跌至 67500 USDT。

Mt.Gox 事件终于要走向结束,对市场有何影响,Odaily 将于本文进行解析。

沉寂五年Mt.Gox地址首次大额转移,14万枚BTC会带崩市场吗?

赔偿方案详情

首先是用户最关心的问题:Mt.Gox 时隔多年转移代币,是为了抛售吗?

Mt.Gox 发布的文件显示,Mt.Gox 确认此批转账是为了在 10 月 31 日债权人偿还期限之前做好准备。据其文件,复原受托人(Rehabilitation Trustee)正在准备就分配加密货币的索赔部分进行偿还准备。索赔有两种方案:方案一为在指定交易所向债权人偿还 BTC 和 BCH,方案二为出售代币然后再进行偿还。据 Cointelegraph 报道,截止目前复原受托人未明确按照什么方案进行赔偿

沉寂五年Mt.Gox地址首次大额转移,14万枚BTC会带崩市场吗?

此前在 4 月 21 日,有 Reddit 用户反馈,Mt.Gox 索赔人发现索赔表格已经完成更新,加入预计取回代币数量等字段,并显示出 BCH 和 BTC 代码。而今年 1 月,有部分债权人收到邮件,要求其确认账户信息,并提示如果账户将来被禁用或冻结,可能无法收到 BTC/BCH 还款。这表明 Mt.Gox 至少正在以某种方式向 BTC 支付形式迈进,而不仅仅是致力于法币支付,但大部分用户认为更新表格与支付赔偿之间没有任何联系。

此处可以得出,BTC 确实面临着来自 Mt.Gox 的抛压风险,但是否会选择这个方案,具体出售比例如何目前不得而知。

抛压力量如何?

Mt.Gox 此次 BTC 转移量共 14.168 万枚,转向了多个地址,用户可于Odaily 报道中查看详情,但总抛售量如上一节所述暂不得而知。Galaxy Digital 研究主管 Alex Thorn 表示:“我个人预计大部分比特币会被持有,但我不能对 BCH 表示同样看法。并非所有的代币都会被出售。”

出售时间方面,Mt.Gox 前首席执行官 Mark Karpelès 在 X 平台发文表示:“据我所知,Mt.Gox 一切正常,受托人正在将代币转移到另一个钱包,为今年可能发生的分配做准备,目前不会立即出售比特币。”而官方的最终偿还截止日期为 2024 年 10 月 31 日,仍有较长一段时间。

此外在出售细则上,据 2023 年 1 月 Mt.Gox 的官方公告,Mt.Gox 提供的偿付方案分为两类,分别为“基础偿付”(Base Repayment)和“比例偿付”(Proportional Repayment)部分,其中基础偿付部分的金额一致,比例偿付部分为债权人提供 2 种选择,即“中期还款和终期还款”或“早期一次性还款”。换言之,若选择出售代币也非短时间内地快速抛售,可以理解为另一种形式的 GBTC 抛压,将在一段较长时期内分批出售。

结论

综上我们可以得出,Mt.Gox 的代币转移行动一定程度上代表了代币抛压的潜在可能,但最终落定方案如何暂无定论,但即使选择了出售方案,也将通过较长一段时间进行消化,难以直接造成市场闪崩。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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