SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-04-04Last updated on 2024-04-04

Abstract

昨天美国公布的经济数据好坏参半,上午的 ADP 就业数据强于预期。在加密货币方面,昨天 ETF 的流入量明显更强劲,Fidelity 和 Blackrock 都出现大量流入,抵消了前一天 ARK 的意外流出。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

昨天美国公布的经济数据好坏参半,上午的 ADP 就业数据强于预期,就业人数增加 18.4 万,前值也上修 1.5 万,转职者的工资增长尤其突出,年增超过 10% ,随附的评论指出,建筑、金融服务和制造业领域出现最大幅度的工资增长。

另一方面, 3 月美国 ISM 服务业指数下跌 1.2 点至 51.4 ,支付价格大幅下滑(-5.2 点),处于 2020 年 3 月以来的最低水平。其余组成成分则涨跌互现,但支付价格和就业部分的疲软暂时阻止了债券收益率继续上升。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

亚特兰大联储主席 Bostic 重申了他的鹰派立场,坚持仅在第四季度进行一次降息,不过他也表示这取决于他的经济观点能否成真,然而他尚未收到任何关于就业市场走软的信息。

另一方面,Powell 的态度更加鸽派,坚称尽管经济增长强劲,通胀放缓的过程仍将继续,并暗示利率目前处于限制性水平,需要降低。此外,他的问答也充满鸽派细节,例如“生产力的提升可能超过产出”,“人口大幅增长可能有助于降低通胀”,关于产能压力“供给面可能会有更多增长可以实现”等。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

10 年期美债收益率仍处于今年高点,但市场尚未出现太多担忧,不过这可能会在第二季度成为股市的阻力。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

周五的非农就业数据预计将保持强劲,略有放缓,但机构调查(强劲)与家庭就业数据(较弱)之间的巨大分歧仍然会是不确定性的主要来源。考虑到近期固定收益的下跌,市场在数据发布时可能会带著鹰派倾向,如果非农就业数据疲软, 6 月降息的可能性可能会回升至 75% 以上。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

在加密货币方面,昨天 ETF 的流入量明显更强劲,Fidelity 和 Blackrock 都出现大量流入,抵消了前一天 ARK 的意外流出,总净流入达到 2.2 亿美元,其中包括 Grayscale 的 7, 500 万流出,ETF 的资金流入帮助将 BTC 价格稳定维持在 6.55 万美元左右。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240404):BTC ETF流入资金明显增加

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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