比特币努力突破上方压力,10月行情如何?

MarsBitPublished on 2023-10-08Last updated on 2023-10-09

Abstract

随着近期比特币价格的反弹,网络活动也开始增加。

一、市场数据  
01 主流币数据分析
近一周(10月02日-10月07日),比特币链上平均活跃地址数为97.58万,环比下跌2.5%,链上平均交易数额83.1万BTC,环上涨10%;七日算力均值为413.89EH/s,环比下降2.8%,比特币当前价格27969.69美元。
随着近期比特币价格的反弹,网络活动也开始增加。比特币的价格与链上交易数据一直存在正相关。比特币在 25000美元大关附近经历了盘整阶段,然后获得动力并进入上升趋势,目前这一趋势正推向28000美元的关键阻力位。

比特币


同期以太坊链上平均活跃地址数为37.34万,较上周下降5.1%;链上7日平均交易价值19.3亿美元,环比下降26%;当前ETH价格1634.55美元。
根据Glassnode统计,拥有1000个或以上ETH的地址数量已降至五年来的最低点。这表明大型投资者要么正在清算其持有的ETH,要么正在转移,这可能会对ETH的价格产生不利影响。现阶段看,以太坊网络上的活动依然惨淡,以太坊正处于十字路口。交易量下降、关键支撑位和死亡交叉相结合,形成了交易者和投资者必须应对的复杂因素。

比特币


02 DeFi锁仓分析
由DEFILAMA数据显示,本周DeFi项目总锁仓量为383.65亿美金,DeFi总锁仓量较上周380.64亿美金环比上涨0.78%。其中以太坊上的DeFi项目主网锁仓量为209.44亿美金,较上周207.66亿美金环比上涨0.85%,占总锁仓量54.59%,占整体市场份额略微上升。本周总锁仓量(TVL)排名前五的项目分别为MakerDAO(44.57亿)、AAVE(41.66亿)JustLand(49.57亿)、Uniswap(28.12亿)以及Curve(19.46亿)。七日TVL变化JustLend增长8.49%,AAVE增长5.71%;其余均呈现下跌趋势,MakerDao下跌3.79%,CurveFinance下跌5.41%、Uniswap下跌3.26%。

比特币


03 DEX交易量
根据DEFILAMA的数据,本周去中心化交易所(DEX)的7天总交易量为124.98亿美元,环比上涨22.9%。24小时交易量为12.72亿美元。与此同时,DEX相对于中心化交易所(CEX)的交易量比率从14.95%上涨至16.24%,表明在本周去中心化交易所的交易更加活跃。
本周去中心化交易所(DEX)的7日交易量排名如下: Uniswap位居榜首,交易量为46.11亿美金,较上周增加了近21.2%的交易量。Pancakswap的交易量为13.96亿美元,相比上周略有减少。Thorchain上周交易量高达1.58亿美金,跃居前三。排名第四的Maverick的交易量增长到8,025万美金,增长了7.98%。DODO本周交易量为4,777万美元,与上周相比,减少了近25.87%。

比特币


04 稳定币数据分析
根据DEFILAMA的最新数据,本周稳定币总发行量为1243.48亿美元,下降了0.049%。市场中,USDT的发行量为835.35亿美元,占据总市场的67.18%,略高于上周的66.83%。TUSD和BUSD的发行量均有不同程度的下跌,分别为0.8%以及2.02%。而DAI和USDC的发行量有所增长,分别增长了0.12%以及0.98%。

比特币


二、项目融资 
本周公布的海内外区块链融资事件共14起,已经被披露的融资总额为6,670万美金,融资金融相比上周减少了四千多万美金。本周融资轮次主要集中在种子轮、种子前、策略轮。其中,最值得注意的由A16Z领投融资的2400万美金的Blackbird。Blackbird 是一家餐厅发现和奖励平台,允许用户发现、预订并为在各种餐厅就餐赚取代币奖励。用户可以浏览策划的餐厅列表,阅读评论,通过应用程序进行预订,并为他们的用餐体验赚取现金返还奖励,这些奖励可以用于未来的餐食或其他福利。

比特币


三、行业点评 
近期市场行情并未出现大幅波动,本周比特币频频触及28000美元的关键阻力位,目前比特币上方的压力沉重,上涨势头显得吃力。虽然比特币上涨压力大,但这并不意味着市场会立即下跌。未来比特币将继续区间震荡走势,如果能够有效突破,也许对市场来说是一个机会。
本周加密市场最大的影响来自宏观方面,美国劳工部10月6日公布数据显示,今年9月美国失业率环比持平在3.8%,非农业部门新增就业人数为33.6万,远高于市场预期的17万。市场认为,9月非农数据的意外爆表,外界预期美国联邦储备委员会可能还将加息。此前9月货币政策会议后,美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%之间。
消息一经公布,加密市场也发生了巨大的波动,比特币在数据公布后一度跳水,几乎跌至27100美元,但随后迅速反弹,最高涨至28295美元,当前比特币价格在28000美元附近震荡。在这种不确定的行情下,比特币似乎已经走出了自己的趋势,正努力突破上方压力,市场也在重新评估比特币的价值。
对于后市行情,有分析师警告加密货币投资者,如果美国经济陷入衰退,比特币可能会崩溃。加密货币分析师Meten认为,在美联储开始印钞支持经济之前,比特币不会进入牛市。
市场情绪反映了投资者的信心和态度,从比特币恐惧与贪婪指数来看,由于现阶段没有重大的基本面影响比特币的价格,市场情绪较之前有所缓和。

比特币


四、热点事件
(1)政策
01 加密托管公司Komainu获英FCA批准,可在英国提供加密货币托管服务
据 Cointelegraph 报道,由野村证券、Ledger 和 Coinshares 合资成立的合规加密托管公司 Komainu 宣布已经获得英国金融行为监管局(FCA)的批准,注册为托管钱包提供商。在英 FCA 的加密资产注册许可下,Komainu 可以在英国提供加密货币托管服务,包括通过其 Komainu Connect 平台提供的抵押品管理服务。
(2)企业
01 比特币矿企产量环比上升,CleanSpark9月产出643枚BTC
据CleanSpark发布数据,其在9月份产出643枚BTC,持有BTC总数达到2240枚。该公司首席执行官表示,过去几个月是历来利润最高的季度,也使CleanSpark的23财年成为迄今为止最好的一年。 此外,Riot Blockchain产出362枚BTC,Marathon Digital Holdings产出1242枚BTC。
02 Coinbase副总裁:我们正在采取“国际第一”的心态
美国加密货币交易所Coinbase负责国际政策的副总裁Tom Duff Gordon最近在 Zebu Live接受采访时指出,国际扩张对于交易所来说变得“越来越重要”。 他说:“我们希望与所有人合作,因为我们认为美国是一个非常重要的市场。我们需要明确监管。它可能不会明天到来,但我认为我们正走在实现这一目标的良好道路上,但美国只有三亿多人口,Brian Armstrong的远大愿景……是让10亿人进入加密货币领域。这是关于经济自由。无论如何,我们不能只在美国这样做,所以我们现在正在采取这种‘国际第一’的心态。”
(3)项目
01 friend.tech开发者自8月推出以来已赚取近2000万美元
据DefiLlama数据显示,friend.tech作为Base上最大的创收应用程序和所有加密货币中第二大的应用程序处于领先地位。按照目前的速度,它的年收入有望达到1.8亿美元。迄今为止,该平台已向用户收取了近4000万美元的总费用。这些费用是通过对社交代币交易量的约10%征税而产生的。总费用的一半作为收入分配给项目团队,另一半分配给交易Keys的用户。据Dune上汇总的链上数据显示,除了2000万美元的收入外,friend.tech创始人“0xRacer”还从该平台单独获得了超过44万美元的收入。
02 狗狗币社区将在日本建造Kabosu狗雕像
一个拥有原始“doge”表情包的NFT社区计划于11月2日在日本佐仓建造一座真正的雕像,旨在向Kabosu致敬,Kabosu是该表情包背后的原型狗狗,社区计划将该雕塑放置在Kabosu主人经常带她散步的樱花故乡广场。据介绍,PleasrDAO是一群购买高价NFT并建立社区的NFT收藏者,其中包括Own The Doge,他们将DOGE视为“Do Only Good Everyday”的缩写形式,向世界各地有意义的慈善机构捐款,其中Own The Doge被列为救助儿童会的最大加密货币捐赠者。

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