Key Takeaways
Ethereum is holding around $4,500. The ETH/BTC ratio dipped 3.7% off 0.04. But a breakout there could be the spark for altcoin season.
The crypto market is sliding into a decisive week.
Bitcoin [BTC] is down 0.42% midweek, showing mild weakness, while Ethereum [ETH] has taken a sharper hit, sliding 4.5% from its $4,800 open to post its first red weekly candle of August.
On the dominance front, BTC.D is rebounding off 57% as ETH.D slips 3.5%. Market structure is clearly in flux.
But the real question is which leg (BTC’s strength or an ETH-led rotation) asserts itself next.
ETH/BTC signals the next leg of market rotation
ETH/BTC is carrying directional weight for the first time since Q3 2022.
Back then, the pair ripped nearly 40% to 0.07 while BTC.D slid 7 points to 38%. The move lit up the Altcoin Season Index at 98, marking a full-blown rotation as capital flooded into alts.
In contrast, the December 2024 setup fizzled. Despite the index hitting 88, the ETH/BTC ratio broke down below 0.04, sliding to a five-year low of 0.017, showing capital flow stayed Bitcoin-heavy throughout the rally.
Source: TradingView (ETH/BTC)
Since late-June though, ETH/BTC has doubled, grinding higher.
In fact, the pair is now testing 0.04 resistance in its first vertical move since 2021. At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 61, hinting this run is alt-driven rather than BTC spillover like the December run.
The key question now is, can a clean break above 0.04 in the ETH/BTC ratio trigger a full-blown rotation into altcoins, similar to the surge we saw during the 2022 cycle?
Ethereum shows relative strength amid market flux
Despite the weekly pullback, Ethereum is showing bullish resilience.
Even down 4%, ETH is holding 6% above its $4,300 weekly base, signaling bulls may be carving a floor. Consecutive ETF inflows are stacking on the upside, reinforcing AMBCrypto’s bullish thesis.
On the flip side, Bitcoin has logged three straight weekly pullbacks off its $124k ATH, closing each week lower, meaning BTC hasn’t found a bottom yet, leaving the door open for a deeper correction.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Ethereum remains firmly in bullish territory, thanks to a key technical divergence.
While ETH’s recent weekly pullback appears to be a healthy reset—flushing out weak hands and cooling down overheated derivatives, Bitcoin’s dip, in contrast, reflects market indecision.
Against this backdrop, Ethereum bulls may be positioning for a breakout in the ETH/BTC ratio above 0.04.
With the Altcoin Season Index rising in parallel, signs point to a potential full-scale altseason on the horizon.
