拐点已至?本轮反弹前看涨情绪提前「就位」| CFTC 比特币持仓周报

FPublished on 2022-09-13Last updated on 2022-09-13

Abstract

9 月 10 日公布的最新一期 CFTC CME 比特币持仓周报( 8 月 31 日 - 9 月 6 日)显示,比特币标准合约总持仓量自 14440 进一步上升至 15337。

9 月 10 日公布的最新一期 CFTC CME 比特币持仓周报( 8 月 31 日 - 9 月 6 日)显示,比特币标准合约总持仓量自 14440 进一步上升至 15337,该数值连续三周上升,直接创出了近 45 个统计周期的新高,也是自 2021 年 11 月初以来该数值首度收复 15000 整数关口。该统计周期内比特币币价实际波动幅度非常有限,不过值得注意的是,行情在该统计周期结束后先跌后反弹,行情波动明显增大,这种「风暴前夕」的阶段各类账户是进行了何种方向的仓位增持,是本期周报的关键看点。

规模最大的经销商账户多头头寸自 173 上升至 200,该数值创出近 12 个统计周期新高,空头头寸自 2048 上升至 2110,这类账户连续第二个周期进行了相对保守的多空双向同步增持,经销商账户短期参与意愿继续上升,虽然进行了同步增持,不过多头头寸占比有所上升并创出了近三个月新高,因此经销商账户的态度在最新统计周期内偏多,相比于前一统计周期的犹豫状况,大型机构正在逐渐找回方向感,而对于这类账户来说,下一统计周期内行情出现大幅波动后会做出什么方向的跟进选择更加值得关注。

资管机构多头头寸自 5823 进一步下降至 5402,空头头寸自 1410 进一步上升至 1899,该数值再度创出历史新高。资管机构进行了连续第四个统计周期的净空调仓,这类账户「疯狂」加码做空的状况还在延续,由于最新统计周期内行情波动不大,因此并没有影响到这类账户在最近一段时间坚定看空的态度,而在行情出现大幅反弹过后这类账户究竟能不能在下一统计周期内继续坚定「逆向」做空非常值得期待。

杠杆基金多头头寸自 3928 上升至 4538,该数值创出近 93 周新高,空头头寸自 7908 上升至 8072。杠杆基金在最新统计周期内又一次进行了多空双向同步增持,其中多头头寸的大幅加码状况得以延续,杠杆基金在上一统计周期内做出的看涨思路并没有进行调整。而经销商账户在最新统计周期内「加入」看涨阵营或将在一定程度上巩固杠杆基金的偏多判断。

大户账户多头头寸自 1928 上升至 2666,空头头寸自 517 上升至 704,大户账户在最新统计周期内又一次进行了多空双向同步增持,多单持仓占比进一步小幅上升,这类账户在上一统计周期较为保守的态度实际上变化不大,不过持续的加仓表现出了这类账户较为积极的态度。

散户多头头寸自 996 下降至 956,空头头寸自 965 上升至 977,散户在最新统计周期内又一次进行了清晰的净空调仓,在行情趋于稳定的背景下,散户的偏空判断很大程度上是延续了前一统计周期的方向判断。

总的来看,最新统计周期内市场偏多情绪快速酝酿,在行情没有出现明显波动的背景下,多类账户都进行了偏多的仓位调整,这种调仓思路略显意外,不过如果从结果上来看,以经销商和杠杆基金为代表的几类账户实际上做出了「正确」的判断,不过考虑到下一统计周期内行情是先跌后反弹的表现,因此更多细节还需要在下一统计周期内寻找蛛丝马迹。

比特币微型合约总持仓量自 16342 上升至 17904,该数值止跌反弹,与标准合约的增持状况保持一致。

经销商账户多头头寸自 182 上升至 232,空头头寸自 178 上升至 197,经销商账户在微型合约中同样进行了多空双向同步增持,由于这类账户在微型合约中的持仓量比较有限,在调仓幅度不大的情况下,这类合约并没有提供额外的指向性信息。

资管机构账户多头头寸自 140 张上升至 185 张,空头头寸自 1162 张下降至 1148 张,资管机构在微型合约中进行了净多调仓,调仓方向与标准合约相悖,属于标准的风险对冲操作。

杠杆基金多头头寸自 4232 上升至 5888,空头头寸自 10629 上升至 11569,杠杆基金在微型合约中进行了多空双向同步增持,多单增持幅度相对更大,这一调仓逻辑与标准合约相仿,这类账户的偏多态度明确。

大户多头头寸自 7082 下降至 7011,空头头寸自 793 上升至 984,大户账户在微型合约中进行了净空调仓,不过由于调仓幅度不大,因此很大程度上是风险对冲操作。

散户多头头寸自 2695 上升至 2713,空头头寸自 1569 上升至 2131,散户在微型合约中进行了多空双向同步增持,不过由于这类账户在标准合约中进行了净空调仓,因此这部分同样是风险对冲操作,无法作为散户「看涨」的判断依据。

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