Celestia’s [TIA] has posted steep losses over the past day, and while the drop reads like an extension of the broader crypto market slide, a closer look at the token’s supply schedule shows the asset is structurally primed for further downside.
DeFiLlama data shows that, apart from the $28,000 tranche marked for the 1st of July at press time, the team plans to offload roughly $67,000 worth of TIA every day until the month closes, pushing around $2.03 million into the market across the 31 days.
The setup looks bearish on paper, yet spot-market flows suggest incoming demand could absorb the pressure, given how TIA traded through June.
Total Spot purchases have reached $106.68 million, with a netflow of roughly $4.8 million tilting the balance toward buyers.
Funding Rate holds firm even as OI bleeds
Outflows over the past few days still read as bearish sentiment working through the market. CoinGlass data showed that Open Interest—the capital committed to an asset’s perpetual contracts—fell 2%, a $1.16 million withdrawal that leaves net OI at $58 million.
The outflow hasn’t shifted positioning, though—the Open-Interest Weighted Funding Rate, which measures the balance of TIA’s perpetual contracts against the Funding Rate, sits positive at 0.0038%.
A positive Funding Rate set against Open Interest signals that most of the capital in the perpetual market is leaning long, positioning for TIA to push higher over the coming sessions.
The reading being only mildly bullish shows traders aren’t crowding the upside, which lowers the risk of a sharp capitulation and points to steadier, more measured positioning.
TIA liquidity heatmap tilts toward an upswing
The liquidity heatmap points to room for a TIA upswing. The heatmap doesn’t lock in a direction, but it hints at one by mapping where buy and sell orders rest.
At the moment, the deeper order clusters sit above price, suggesting strong odds that TIA rallies toward those levels.
Momentum still works against that case, with TIA already down double digits on the day, and that weakness could drag price toward the lower clusters instead.
Those lower clusters hold resting buy orders that could seed a mid-term rally and shift the balance back in TIA’s favor.
Final Summary
- Celestia’s team is set to sell roughly $2.03 million in TIA across the month, adding structural pressure on top of the market-wide slide.
- Spot demand and a positive Funding Rate suggest that buyers could absorb the incoming supply, keeping an upswing in play.
