# BTC的所有文章

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How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?

This article analyzes the formation of Bitcoin's bear market "bottom structure" by examining the relationship between cost basis and price action, particularly the behavior of short-term holders (STH). Historically, the cost basis of coins held for 1-3 months (1-3m_RP) has acted as a key resistance level during bear market rallies. This group's supply is often less committed; many entered the market expecting quick gains but were trapped. When the price rebounds to their break-even point, they tend to sell, creating resistance. Data shows that as of mid-April, the 1-3m_RP is approximately $75,400, a level Bitcoin is currently testing for the second time this cycle. The first test in mid-January failed, leading to a pullback. The author suggests a high probability of a similar outcome this time, as historical cycles show the second test rarely results in an immediate reversal. An alternative, less likely scenario is a break above this level, only to face stronger resistance at the broader STH-RP (average cost basis for all short-term holders) near $81,000, where a much larger supply of 2.31 million BTC resides. This could lead to price consolidation around the 1-3m_RP. A definitive bottom structure is confirmed only when the 1-3m_RP trend reverses from down to up, signaling a transition from a bear to a bull market. This process takes time, requiring patience to observe whether breakouts are genuine.

marsbit20小时前

How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?

marsbit20小时前

BitMart Research Institute's Weekly Hotspot Analysis: U.S.-Iran Détente Coupled with Fed's Hawkish Pivot, Crypto Market Follows Suit in Rebound and Bottoming

BitMart Research Weekly Analysis: U.S.-Iran De-escalation and Fed’s Hawkish Turn Drive Crypto Market Rebound and Bottom-Building Macro Overview: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran show signs of easing, supporting a rebound in risk assets including equities and oil. U.S. stocks, particularly in AI-related sectors, rebounded strongly. The latest FOMC minutes revealed a more hawkish tone, with “rate hikes” entering discussions, though the majority of members remain focused on labor market conditions. March CPI rose due to energy prices, but core CPI was softer. Sustained high oil prices may push supercore inflation higher in the coming months, potentially influencing Fed policy. Crypto Market Performance: BTC and ETH followed the upward trend in equities, supported by improved risk sentiment and expectations around crypto regulatory clarity (e.g., Clarity Act). However, some long-term indicators suggest the market may still be in a bear phase or experiencing bottom consolidation. The $60,000 level is seen as a key support for BTC. Altcoins lack fundamental drivers and remain highly volatile with strong manipulative tendencies, making BTC and ETH more reliable for strategic allocation. Trading and Fund Flows: Spot trading volume remains low, but active buying interest is noticeable. Perpetual swap funding rates are negative, indicating short dominance, while options markets show no significant rise in fear. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows, including a single-day inflow of $421 million. MicroStrategy accelerated its BTC accumulation, adding nearly 14,000 BTC recently. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

marsbit前天 03:29

BitMart Research Institute's Weekly Hotspot Analysis: U.S.-Iran Détente Coupled with Fed's Hawkish Pivot, Crypto Market Follows Suit in Rebound and Bottoming

marsbit前天 03:29

Bitcoin Bull Phase Pattern Shows When BTC Price Will Bottom At $41,400

A crypto analyst, Philarekt, predicts Bitcoin's current bull phase has ended and the asset is in a prolonged bear market. Contrary to expectations of new highs, he identifies the peak at over $126,000 in October 2025 as the cycle top. Based on historical patterns where each bull phase lasts about 1,450 days and is followed by a 365-day bear market, he forecasts a further decline. Bitcoin is expected to bottom around $41,400, a 64% drop from its peak, by early October 2026. As of the writing date (April 11, 2026), BTC is 187 days into this decline with 178 days remaining until the projected low.

bitcoinist04/12 06:37

Bitcoin Bull Phase Pattern Shows When BTC Price Will Bottom At $41,400

bitcoinist04/12 06:37

Bitcoin at a Crossroads as Bulls and Bears Clash Near Key Support

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture as it tests key support near $70,500, with bulls and bears battling for control. After an 8% rally to $72,000, BTC reclaimed important technical levels, including the 50-day EMA at $70,000 and the 200-day EMA at $68,000. Analysts identify $67,700–$70,000 as a major support zone. For a bullish trend to continue, Bitcoin must break through the sell wall between $72,000–$73,000 and eventually reclaim the $76,000–$80,000 range. However, institutional demand remains muted, and on-chain activity has declined significantly, with transfer volume down over 50% in a month. Market sentiment is cautious due to geopolitical tensions and distribution pressure from recent buyers.

TheNewsCrypto04/09 13:19

Bitcoin at a Crossroads as Bulls and Bears Clash Near Key Support

TheNewsCrypto04/09 13:19

Strategy’s latest 4.8K BTC purchase – 3 reasons why it’s buying Bitcoin dip

Strategy continues its Bitcoin accumulation strategy despite market consolidation, purchasing 4,871 BTC (worth $330 million) to bring its total holdings to 766,970 BTC. This move accounted for 94% of all corporate BTC purchases in March. Unlike many firms, Strategy buys during price weakness rather than breakouts, signaling long-term conviction but limited short-term upside expectations. Funding for these purchases comes primarily from equity raises rather than debt), providing flexibility and avoiding forced selling risks. The recent acquisition was supported by a $473.9 million equity raise, leaving the company with a $2.25 billion cash buffer. This approach allows continued buying during downturns but introduces gradual shareholder dilution. While demonstrating strong belief in Bitcoin’s future, Strategy’s retained cash and measured accumulation reflect a cautious stance amid ongoing market uncertainty and unconfirmed price structure.

ambcrypto04/07 10:51

Strategy’s latest 4.8K BTC purchase – 3 reasons why it’s buying Bitcoin dip

ambcrypto04/07 10:51

Expert Explains What Strategy’s 89,599 BTC Buy In Q1 Means For The Bitcoin Price

Expert Adam Livingston analyzes the significance of Strategy's purchase of 89,599 BTC in Q1 2026—its second-largest quarterly accumulation—amid a downtrend and negative market sentiment. He emphasizes that this pace, if sustained for three years, could push Strategy's holdings to 1.84 million BTC by 2029, significantly reducing market supply. Notably, Strategy bought more aggressively at higher prices, with 39% of purchases in the $90k-$110k range. Livingston argues that even conservative projections point to substantial upside for both Strategy’s valuation and Bitcoin’s long-term price, especially if BTC reverts toward its $360k power-law trend by 2028.

bitcoinist04/07 04:02

Expert Explains What Strategy’s 89,599 BTC Buy In Q1 Means For The Bitcoin Price

bitcoinist04/07 04:02

Bitcoin Whales Go Shopping: 10,000 BTC Accumulated In 3 Days

According to on-chain data, Bitcoin whales have resumed significant accumulation, purchasing approximately 10,000 BTC over the past three days. This activity, reflected in the Santiment BTC Held by Whales metric, suggests a potential shift in market sentiment and a possible foundation for a new bullish trend. Concurrently, bearish discussions on social media have reached their highest level since late February 2026, indicating peak fear and pessimism among traders. Historically, such extreme negative sentiment often precedes a market reversal. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is around $67,400, up nearly 1% in 24 hours. The return of whale accumulation coupled with high FUD levels could signal an impending positive price movement.

bitcoinist04/06 10:01

Bitcoin Whales Go Shopping: 10,000 BTC Accumulated In 3 Days

bitcoinist04/06 10:01

Bitcoin stuck at a key level: Investors pause to gauge BTC’s next move

Bitcoin remains at a critical juncture as investors assess its next potential move. The market faces headwinds from rising oil prices and inflation fears, driving institutional demand for bearish put options. Short-term holders are limiting upside by securing profits or exiting at breakeven levels. On the 3-day chart, Bitcoin’s February bounce from $60k remains incomplete, failing to breach the key 50% retracement resistance at $78.9k. A move into this “premium” zone could trigger another bearish swing. However, the inability to break below recent swing lows at $65.9k and $62.9k suggests underlying bullish strength on lower timeframes. A close below $65,618 on the 4-hour chart would signal bearish momentum, while a break under $60k on the 3-day chart would confirm a continuation of the long-term downtrend. Until then, a bounce toward $78.9k remains plausible, with the market awaiting a catalyst for the next decisive move.

ambcrypto04/03 20:31

Bitcoin stuck at a key level: Investors pause to gauge BTC’s next move

ambcrypto04/03 20:31

Gate Institutional Weekly Report: BTC Funding Rate Turns Positive, CEX TradFi Trading Volume Soars (March 23–29, 2026)

Last week, the market was primarily driven by a sharp escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which pushed WTI crude oil prices above $100 amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz. This triggered inflation concerns, rising U.S. bond yields, and a sell-off in tech stocks and crypto assets, with major cryptocurrencies falling over 6%. Market sentiment indicators like the VIX and Fear & Greed Index reflected high uncertainty and fear. In crypto ETFs, outflows dominated mid-week with $500M net withdrawn from BTC and ETH products, though slight inflows returned by the weekend. TradFi trading volume on CEXs surged, especially in commodities and metals, while PAXG liquidity recover after initial sell pressure. On-chain, DEX trading cooled, with Meteora on Solana maintaining high volume while others declined. Stablecoin supply remained stable, with DAI showing resilience. LST protocols like Lido and Jito saw reduced activity due to lower ETH and SOL performance. Aave’s lending decreased overall, though Mantle saw growth. Derivatives data showed BTC funding rates briefly turned positive, indicating tentative long interest, though open interest declined and skew remained negative, reflecting defensive sentiment. Implied volatility held steady, suggesting limited expectations for near-term price swings. Gate highlighted progress in data-driven operations, growth in lending, AI integration, and upcoming events including the Hong Kong Web3 Festival.

marsbit04/03 12:34

Gate Institutional Weekly Report: BTC Funding Rate Turns Positive, CEX TradFi Trading Volume Soars (March 23–29, 2026)

marsbit04/03 12:34

Bitcoin leads $400M liquidation wave as bulls get squeezed – When will it stop?

Crypto liquidations surged to over $456 million on April 2, with long positions accounting for $287 million and shorts making up $169 million. Bitcoin's drop below $66K contributed to the sell-off, while its funding rate briefly turned negative. BTC saw the highest liquidations at $57 million. Market sentiment shifted bearish after a brief bullish period in mid-March, as indicated by the Bitcoin Positioning Index falling below zero. Futures liquidations have been dominated by longs since October 2025, reflecting persistent bearish pressure. A reversal above zero in the positioning index, along with dominant short liquidations, would signal a bullish shift, but current conditions suggest further downside risk, possibly below $65K.

ambcrypto04/03 11:11

Bitcoin leads $400M liquidation wave as bulls get squeezed – When will it stop?