Fed chair Kevin Warsh is going to assess the bank’s monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee. The hearing is set for July 14, and only weeks remain till the meeting of the FOMC. Warsh will provide his first assessment of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy before Congress during the upcoming hearing.
Federal regulations demand that the chair of the Federal Reserve deliver briefings on monetary policy to Congress twice every year. Warsh is also expected to appear before the Senate Banking Committee at a separate hearing. The investors are awaiting the testimony of Warsh due to continued scrutiny by policymakers regarding the state of inflation within the US economy. Expectations are high that the members will ask for opinions regarding the economic situation.
Inflation Data Still the Main Attraction
Meanwhile, investors and policymakers have shifted their attention to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which the Federal Reserve uses to measure inflation. Analysts project that May’s PCE inflation rose 0.5% compared with April. Inflation projections in recent times have compelled some financial organizations to review their outlook on monetary policy. Bank of America is now projecting that the Federal Reserve will increase the interest rate in quarter-point moves at three meetings. The organization foresees further increases in the interest rate at the September, October, and December meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. Earlier forecasts projected that the Federal Reserve would keep policy measures unchanged throughout the year.
Markets Price Further Rate Increases
Prediction markets continue to show uncertainty over the future moves of the Federal Reserve. It is being estimated that the probability of a move by the Fed in July is around 25%. While investors continue to expect no action from the Fed in the upcoming July meeting, markets are increasingly pricing higher rates towards the latter part of the year.
According to data from CME FedWatch, it is believed that the possibility of the Fed tightening in September is more than 50%. Investors continue to analyze the economic data available to gauge further policy moves. As Warsh prepares for his congressional appearance, markets continue to focus on the inflation trend, the economy, and interest rate expectations.
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