This week, Bitcoin achieved a deep oversold rebound, as extreme panic sentiment in the crypto market subsided. Multiple data points indicate that the market is showing significant signs of bottoming out. From a market perspective, the net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs have continued to shrink, and the negative premium between Coinbase and USDT has also been steadily correcting. Considering the industry fundamentals, the shutdown costs for mainstream mining machines are concentrated between $30,000 and $50,000, suggesting that a phased industry cost bottom may be solidifying—a classic signal of market bottoms in past crypto cycles.
Looking at front-line trading activity, the trend of institutional capital positioning against the downtrend is equally prominent. Taking the New Huo Group as an example, its Over-The-Counter (OTC) weekly trading volume surged over 8 times month-on-month, while the number of active platform users doubled simultaneously. Both core business metrics hit record highs, confirming a significant increase in large-volume trading activity and a surge in demand for OTC fund entry against the market trend. New Huo Research also monitored on-chain data showing that some institutional funds with public company attributes and 'ancient whale' labels have been conducting concentrated bottom-fishing at the key price level around $60,000, actively entering the market. Since mid-May, New Huo Research has consistently signaled the reopening of a 'high value-for-money' accumulation window. This previous assessment has now been validated, as the market is undergoing a switch from panic selling to long-term holding.
Looking ahead, the release of liquidity and the implementation of macro policies are poised to become the core drivers propelling the market upward. With SpaceX's successful and stellar market debut, it has rekindled market optimism. The massive funds frozen during its IPO period are now entering an unfreezing phase. The subsequent release of this substantial liquidity is bound to seek new value opportunities, spilling over into assets like Bitcoin, which are currently severely undervalued. On the macro and policy front, the attitude struck in Kevin Warsh's first speech at the upcoming FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on the 18th, Beijing time, will be crucial. It will directly set the tone for near-term monetary policy expectations. Furthermore, if the CLARITY Act can be passed smoothly by the end of July, it will significantly boost institutional confidence for capital entry. Considering the bottoming characteristics alongside favorable factors from both the capital and policy fronts, New Huo Research maintains a positive outlook on the subsequent market trend.
