Overview
Price held above recent lows while RSI rebounded sharply from extreme conditions, indicating exhaustion may be taking hold even as the broader trend remains fragile. Spot flows improved meaningfully with CVD turning positive for the first time in several weeks, signalling renewed buy-side aggression despite thinning liquidity. However, aggregate spot volume remains compressed near historical lows, suggesting the market is still operating cautiously with limited participation.
Derivatives markets reflect this transition from stress toward tentative balance. Futures Open Interest has slipped below its lower band and funding has collapsed to cycle-low levels while leverage continues to unwind, forming a structure that aligns more with de-risking than speculative expansion. Futures CVD is recovering at the same time, indicating that the worst of the sell-side pressure may be passing. In options, Open Interest has grown modestly while volatility pricing has shifted into discount, suggesting the market may now be underpricing forward risk. Skew has eased from last week’s defensive posture, pointing to reduced downside hedging demand and a softening in bearish sentiment.
ETF trends improved meaningfully. Netflows turned positive at 159.8 million after persistent outflows, hinting at renewed institutional interest despite ETF volumes remaining below their lower band. MVRV is stable in profit, indicating limited pressure for widespread distribution.
On-chain activity remains soft. Active addresses and transfer volumes have eased, while fee revenue has dropped below its lower band, pointing to lighter network usage. Realised Cap Change continues to fade, suggesting muted inflows. Supply structure is still speculative, with both the STH to LTH ratio and Hot Capital Share above upper bands, reflecting short-term churn and heightened reactivity. Profitability metrics have not improved, with all metric remaining loss-dominant, signalling a lack of momentum.
In sum, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning out of deleveraging into a fragile equilibrium. Oversold conditions have eased and ETF flows have improved, but liquidity remains thin and conviction unproven. A sustained recovery will likely require much stronger spot demand, renewed inflows, and broader participation.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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