Newbies buy what OGs sell: Bitcoin enters major holder shake-up

Key Takeaways

Why is Bitcoin rotating to new investors?

LTHs have sold 1.4M BTC since March, redistributing supply to ETFs, treasuries, and new market participants—further decentralizing ownership.

What pressure are short-term holders facing now?

STHs are selling at heavy losses, with SOPR near zero, signaling capitulation but also a potential mid-term reversal zone.

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Bitcoin is in one of its most bearish phases in a long while. From its all-time high, the asset has declined by roughly 31%.

This decline has sparked debate over whether it marks the start of a broader bear market, based on how Bitcoin [BTC] is moving between different holder cohorts.

AMBCrypto’s analysis explores what long-term and short-term holder behavior, as well as institutional adoption, could mean for price direction.

Long-term holder sell pressure remains high

Long-term holders, typically defined as those holding BTC for more than six months, have added notable pressure to the market.

Since March 2024, these investors have sold at historically high levels, with Alphractal data showing one of the largest sell-offs recorded.

Data also shows that OG long-term holders—classified by the size and duration of their holdings—have shifted behavior, selling portions of their BTC at least four times since March 2024, marking a major change in pattern.

This wave of selling comes amid shrinking profitability, with the realized price at $38,600, while short-term holders have remained comparatively more profitable in the recent cycle.

Is this bad for Bitcoin?

The recent distribution from long-term holders is not necessarily negative for Bitcoin.

To assess this, AMBCrypto compared long-term holder reserves with institutional Bitcoin purchases since March 2024; the same year the broader sell off began.

Data from the 3rd of March 2024 to the 24th of November 2025 showed that long-term holders sold around 1.4 million BTC, valued at approximately $121.17 billion at press time price.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchanged traded funds (ETFs) assets under management rose from $42.77 billion on the 1st of March 2024 to $120.82 billion on the 24th of November, indicating institutional investors accumulated roughly $78.05 billion worth of BTC.

This creates a net deficit of about $43 billion between LTH selling and ETF purchases.

However, Bitcoin treasury holdings—now spread across 134 entities—account for 1.686 million BTC, worth around $145 billion.

Using similar calculations, this suggests a net positive inflow of $102 billion into Bitcoin so far, excluding retail and short-term holder activity.

What are short-term holders doing?

Short-term holders have entered a peak loss phase, pointing to exhaustion and lower incentive to keep holding.

The Short-Term Holder SOPR hovered near zero, a zone historically linked to potential reversals.

For a sustained recovery, supportive macro conditions would be required. This includes improving sentiment toward risk assets, possible interest rate cuts, and a weakening U.S. dollar.

On the global front, liquidity has remained relatively stable between $25 trillion and $50 trillion, and has yet to show a strong impact on the crypto market, lowering the odds of an immediate liquidity-driven rally.

Notably, this near-zero reading from the STH-SOPR has historically been followed by a rally, at least in the mid-term.

If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could regain the $90,000 region, especially if supported by inflows from traders pricing back into risk assets.