Key Takeaways
To what extent has institutional BTC demand declined?
Weekly ETF inflows have dropped from over 10K BTC to below 1K BTC.
Can BTC hold above $100K?
Only if institutional demand increases at the level, otherwise the support could be cracked.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin [BTC] is cooling off, derailing hopes of a recovery. According to Glassnode, BlackRock’s weekly inflows have dropped to just 600 BTC over the past three weeks.
This marks a sharp decline from previous rallies, when BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF attracted over 10,000 BTC per week, a staggering 90% drop that’s now weighing on Bitcoin’s rebound.
Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin treasury firms, led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, are not aggressively bidding as they did in previous weeks.
Beyond the LTH sell pressure
So far, some analysts have pointed fingers at long-term holders (LTHs) and early investors who have been offloading.
But a more sober outlook from some quarters is that BTC is maturing and could consolidate in the next few months in a post-IPO style before climbing higher.
From an on-chain perspective, however, the mid-term outlook remains cautious. According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, there was not enough demand to absorb the current sell pressure at current price levels.
“Is there enough demand to absorb the supply at higher prices? Since a few weeks ago, the answer is no, and that is why we see prices declining.”
Source: CryptoQuant
In the long run, however, Moreno noted that demand was growing, albeit at a slower rate.
That said, the Negative Apparent Demand signal in 2024 and 2025 coincided with local bottoms for BTC. Will history repeat?
According to Singapore-based crypto trading desk, QCP Capital, such an outcome was 50/50. In a market update, the firm noted,
“As BTC continues to consolidate in a multi-month band reminiscent of pre-breakout 2024, speculation has emerged on whether this cycle is nearing its end. Whether this marks the onset of another crypto winter is unclear.”
As of writing, one of the key cycle top indicators, the MVRV Z-Score, was not yet overheated, suggesting that this cycle peak had not yet occurred. Instead, the metric’s past spikes to 3 marked recent local tops.
Source: Glassnode
If the past trends repeat, perhaps a spike above 3 could signal a potential market peak. Meanwhile, BTC extended its correction to $104K as of writing.
