Key Takeaways
BTC bull run hangs in the balance as $100K support acts as a key pivot amid whale profit-taking and macro headwinds.
“Bitcoin is still on sale,” says Michael Saylor.
After Bitcoin [BTC] closed August down 6.5% from its $115,778 open, the claim carries weight. Meanwhile, MSTR scaled into BTC across three buys during the month, averaging $116,168 per coin.
However, those positions now sit on a 7.3% unrealized loss. Does this make MSTR’s call a risk-off play, potentially sidelining traders, and reinforcing the idea that BTC bull run hasn’t fully bottomed yet?
Macro volatility tests MSTR’s Bitcoin bet
September kicks off with a packed economic calendar set to move markets.
We’ve got ISM manufacturing PMI and employment, initial jobless claims, trade balance, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate, all set to be released in the first week of BTC’s historically bearish month.
All eyes, however, are on the 17th of September FOMC, where markets are largely pricing in easing. 86.4% chance of a rate cut, 13.6% no change, and 0% hike, making this week’s releases key for BTC bull run.
Source: CME Group
Simply put, the U.S. macro backdrop is key to backing MSTR’s BTC bet.
The logic is simple: July’s headline CPI held at 2.7%, just under the 2.8% forecast, while core CPI ticked up 0.3% as “expected”, its sharpest monthly gain in six months, keeping inflation dynamics in check.
The result? The FOMC held rates unchanged. Bitcoin bottomed, sparking a $124k ATH in the prior BTC bull run. Now the question is whether current macro conditions can trigger a similar BTC rally, backing MSTR’s stance.
$100k support now the pivot point for BTC bull run
September has historically been BTC’s rough patch.
On average, it posts -3.5% MoM ROI, the only month where losses consistently dominate, following June’s mild -0.14% monthly return. This seasonal weakness is something traders keep front-of-mind for flows.
On top of that, on-chain data shows a big spike in realized profits from new BTC whales, marking the largest in over a month.
Notably, the first notable spike was back in mid-July, right when the BTC bull run topped at $123k.
Source: CryptoQuant
Simply put, BTC smart money is continuing to tactically reposition.
In fact, the absence of “buy the fear” activity from whales runs counter to MSTR’s aggressive Bitcoin bet. Traders seem positioned for a repeat of September’s typical flush, despite the market pricing in a rate cut.
In reality, the Fed has little incentive to cut amid post-tariff economic risks, making a rate cut unlikely.
Thus, all signs point bearish, with $100k now looking like a key support and potential pivot zone for BTC bull run.
