BTC bull run over at $111K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Cointelegraph发布于2025-08-26更新于2025-08-26

文章摘要

Bitcoin dives to multi-week lows, and as talk of all-time highs vanishes, BTC price targets include a retest of $100,000 and under.

Bitcoin starts the last week of August far from all-time highs as traders become increasingly nervous.

A huge long liquidation event brought $110,000 back into play as a new CME gap becomes a hope for bulls.

Bitcoin whales are under scrutiny after a giant rotation from BTC into ETH.

Smaller hodlers remain in accumulation mode, analysis reveals, unlike whales.

The latest BTC price action has resulted in talk of the entire bull market now being over.

The Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge is due again as markets double down on rate-cut bets.

BTC price weakness sparks talk of $100,000 retest

Bitcoin is back at multi-week lows as August nears its end, and market participants are busy drawing new BTC price targets.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows whipsaw BTC price action defining the market since Sunday’s flash volatility.

This took BTC/USD to $110,700, its lowest levels since July 10 and a rude wake-up call for late longs.

Monitoring resource CoinGlass put 24-hour crypto long liquidations at $640 million at the time of writing.

Traders were split on the short-term outlook. While some eyed a retest of old all-time highs as a bounce point, others saw a more nuanced situation.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades flagged an “important retest” currently in progress.

“$BTC Opened up with a large CME gap today,” he noted, referring to the weekend gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.

“This is the largest we've seen in several weeks. We have been opening up with gaps pretty often and most of these have been filling on Monday/Tuesday.”

Fellow trader Jelle was among those seeing a trip to even lower levels.

“Bitcoin is still murdering leveraged traders around the range lows, and from the looks of it, the sharks are still hungry,” he warned.

“Would really prefer price holds this area, or we'll fall back into the previous range which would open us up to another retest of $100k.”

CoinGlass exchange order-book data revealed little bid support in place immediately below the price into the week’s first Wall Street open.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on an analyst’s conviction of over $100,000 staying in place, even unchallenged, as support.

Bitcoin OG: Whale distribution “healthy”

Sunday’s sudden BTC price dive brought Bitcoin whales back into focus.

Current levels, still within 10% of all-time highs, have proven attractive to large players seeking to take profit on long-held coins.

The weekend saw one entity sell a giant tranche of BTC after seven years, tanking the market $4,000 in minutes, a drop from which it has yet to recover.

Data from crypto intelligence firm Arkham uploaded to X by analytics account Lookonchain showed the entity rotating from Bitcoin into Ether.

“In the past 5 days, they’ve deposited ~22,769 $BTC($2.59B) to Hyperliquid for sale, then bought 472,920 $ETH($2.22B) spot and opened a 135,265 $ETH($577M) long,” it summarized while relaying the BTC and ETH addresses involved.

The entity’s BTC is now worth around $11.4 billion, a profit margin of 1,675%.

“No paper BTC conspiracies are required. The price has stalled because a number of whales have hit their magic number and are unloading,” Bitcoin enthusiast Vijay Boyapati commented on the event.

“This is healthy - their supply is finite and their selling is required for the full monetization of Bitcoin. Massive blocks of supply, with enormous purchasing power, are being distributed into the population. This cycle is one of the greatest monetization events in history.”

热门币种推荐

你可能也喜欢

给Transformer变个形,LLM竟能变得更聪明

一篇名为《给Transformer变个形,LLM竟能变得更聪明》的文章介绍了一项来自Mila、康奈尔大学和蒙特利尔大学研究者的新工作。该研究提出了“锥形语言模型”概念,其核心思想是:在模型总参数量和计算量不变的前提下,不再为所有网络层均匀分配参数,而是让参数容量(如前馈网络宽度)沿着模型深度方向单调递减。 研究发现,传统Transformer等架构对所有层“一视同仁”的参数分配方式可能并非最优。多项前期研究已表明,模型的浅层和深层在功能与重要性上存在差异。研究者通过实验证实,将更多容量集中到模型前段的“头重脚轻”式分配,相比均匀分配或集中于后段的方案,能显著降低模型在验证集上的困惑度,提升预测准确性。 在440M参数的模型上,最优的余弦递减配置(前段宽度为基准1.5倍,后段为0.5倍)使困惑度改善了1.84点。这一结论在多种不同架构和更大规模的模型上也得到了验证,且未损害模型处理长上下文的能力。分析显示,深层网络更多是在“重复强调”已有信息,而非创造新理解,因此前段层更能有效利用额外容量。 这项研究指出了一个长期被忽视的设计维度:参数容量的分布形状本身就是一个有效的优化杠杆。它为提升模型性能提供了一个几乎零成本的思路,无需改变架构或增加参数,仅需重新分配已有参数。研究者认为,这一思路未来可能同样适用于视觉Transformer、扩散模型等其他领域。

marsbit4分钟前

给Transformer变个形,LLM竟能变得更聪明

marsbit4分钟前

Token不经济

这篇文章讨论了当前企业使用AI工具时普遍面临的“Token不经济”现象,即Token消耗成本与产出价值严重不匹配。文章从多个角度分析了此问题的成因。 在供给端,大模型定价策略整体抬升了使用成本。领导者如Anthropic凭借编程优势确立高端定价权,实现“好货不便宜”;追赶者如OpenAI和Google则采取价格竞争;而面向大众的经济型模型市场,因需求量爆炸式增长,价格中枢也在悄然上移。 在技术层面,智能体(Agent)工作流中存在多种结构性消耗,包括:上下文陷阱(历史信息被反复计入)、分词器黑箱(闭源模型更新导致Token计数膨胀)、技能冗余调用(大量Token耗费在无关说明上),以及多Agent协同中的“沟通税”和长任务中的“熵增”。这些技术性损耗对缺乏背景知识的普通用户尤其不友好。 更根本的挑战在于需求端。目前Token的高效应用场景高度局限于编程等数字化水平高的领域,因其能形成低成本、自动化的训练反馈闭环。然而,在大多数传统行业及物理世界任务中,由于数字化程度低、验证成本高昂,AI难以有效落地并创造显著价值,限制了Token产生实际经济收益的范围。 这种“不经济”状态加剧了产业链风险。风险向中游模型厂商集中,其与上游硬件商的“循环融资”可能滋生估值泡沫和金融风险。同时,算力扩张对水、电等资源的争抢,也对社会民生造成挤压。 文章最后指出,缓解“Token不经济”需从供给和需求两端发力。技术上进行精细化优化,如上下文压缩、技能精简和模型路由;商业上则需加强企业内部的Token成本治理,并努力在传统行业中寻找具备可行性的应用场景,跨越数字与物理世界的鸿沟。最终,行业需要回归投资回报率(ROI)这一金标准,推动AI从炫技阶段走向高效、实用的生产阶段。

marsbit26分钟前

Token不经济

marsbit26分钟前

多元化投资:不止于数字资产

当前数字资产市场正经历显著的财富周期成熟阶段。数据显示,在比特币于2025年末达到周期高峰前后,长期持有者开始获利了结,向新入场的机构、企业和传统财富参与者分发资产,实现了该资产类别有史以来最大规模的代际财富转移。与此同时,尽管2026年第一季度整体加密货币市值(除稳定币外)下跌约18%,稳定币供应量却从3080亿美元增至3180亿美元,表明资本并未撤离,而是在市场内轮动至现金类工具以等待更明确的信号。 这对私人银行和财富管理机构构成了结构性机遇。实现利润的高净值人士并非要退出数字资产领域,而是希望进行多元化配置、管理流动性并接入完整的财富管理服务(如股票、固定收益、私人市场、借贷、传承规划)。反过来,随着银行对加密原生客户更加开放,也引入了新的资本和买家,深化了已吸收大量长期持有者分发的机构需求基础。 然而,关键的操作性障碍在于:数字资产与传统银行系统间有效转移财富,依赖于透明、可审计的财富来源证明。这正是由Glassnode分拆出的Cense公司致力于解决的问题。Cense利用链上分析技术,为个人数字财富历史生成符合银行要求的可审计文件,从而为加密财富进入私人银行体系提供清晰路径,同时也为传统资本反向进入数字资产领域铺平道路。 一旦加密财富变得“可银行化”,将带来双向益处:高净值人士能实现跨资产类别多元化、获得更广泛投资机会并进行综合流动性管理;私人银行则能获得合规的高质量存款基础和长期的资产管理规模增长渠道。市场展望方面,未来几年或将更少地体现为“加密与传统金融的对立”,而更多地体现为两者的融合,形成一个资本可在其间顺畅流动的融合财富格局。

insights.glassnode1小时前

多元化投资:不止于数字资产

insights.glassnode1小时前

交易

现货

热门文章

加密市场宏观研报:《GENIUS Act》法案取得重大进展,BTC突破历史新高,后市全新展望

2025年5月22日,比特币价格正式突破11万美元大关,创下历史新高。在政策面、宏观经济、资金面与投资者结构共同作用下,一场结构性牛市浪潮正在展开。而此轮上涨背后的核心驱动,是美国《GENIUS稳定币法案》的实质性进展以及多项利好的叠加。本文将从政策端突破、宏观环境转向、链上与ETF资金结构、交易行为演化,以及重点受益赛道五大维度,全面解析此轮BTC再创新高的深层逻辑,并前瞻下半年市场的潜在趋势。

1.7k人学过发布于 2025.05.22更新于 2025.05.22

加密市场宏观研报:《GENIUS Act》法案取得重大进展,BTC突破历史新高,后市全新展望

相关讨论

欢迎来到HTX社区。在这里,您可以了解最新的平台发展动态并获得专业的市场意见。以下是用户对BTC(BTC)币价的意见。

活动图片