XRP currently holds near $1.3, reflecting sustained weakness after failing to reclaim levels above $2. However, the pressure runs deeper than price alone, as positioning imbalances continue to unwind.
During the 2025 rally toward $3.66, heavy retail inflows expanded short-term holder exposure, which now drives reactive selling. As prices declined from late 2024, realized losses accelerated, consistently ranging between $20 million and $110 million per day.
These losses clustered within newer cohorts, showing forced exits rather than strategic rotation. Meanwhile, XRP remained below the $1.43 realized level, keeping roughly 56% of its supply underwater.
As this overhang persists, recovery faces resistance, although gradual absorption could stabilize the structure over time.
XRP’s cost-basis overhang caps recovery
This persistent imbalance becomes clearer when viewed through cost-basis positioning, which shows where that pressure is actually coming from.
As XRP’s price dropped from above $2.5 toward the $1.2–$1.3 range, large supply clusters remained concentrated between $1.9 and $2.2.
When price attempted to recover into this zone, holders from the 2024–2025 inflow period approached breakeven, which drove steady sell-side pressure.
Instead of a single capitulation, the February loss spike extended into continued distribution through March.
At the same time, some demand absorbs supply near lower levels, which prevents deeper breakdowns. This creates a slow rotation dynamic, where recovery stays capped, yet structure gradually strengthens as weaker hands exit.
Altcoin bottoms shift to slow absorption cycles
This resistance around cost-basis levels does more than cap XRP; it begins to redefine how altcoin bottoms take shape. While price holds below the $1.43 realized level, recovery attempts repeatedly stall near overhead supply.
At the same time, about 69% of supply sits in wallets under one year, with 36.9% concentrated in the 6–12 month band. These cohorts remain sensitive to price swings, so each rally invites exit-driven selling as holders approach breakeven.
Meanwhile, roughly 56% of XRP’s supply stays underwater, keeping pressure active but not extreme. This creates a slow rotation, where weak hands exit and stronger hands absorb.
As this unfolds, recoveries stretch out, although the same process gradually builds a more stable base.
Final Summary
- $20–$110 million in daily realized losses and a 56% underwater supply sustain XRP’s sell pressure near the $1.43 cost basis.
- Supply clusters at $1.9–$2.2 and 69% held short-term, extending bottom formation timelines.
