Why This Analyst Thinks XRP Could Drop 56% to $0.80

XRP faces potential downside risk to $0.80 according to a recent analysis from veteran market expert Ali Martinez. The token attempted to reclaim the $2 level yesterday but failed after reaching an intraday high of $1.91. XRP has since given up all gains and currently trades at $1.86.

The token has corrected over 40% from its July peak of $3.66. Despite a strong start to 2025, XRP now posts a year-to-date loss of 19% with one day remaining before year-end. Martinez has identified multiple factors that could drive the price down 56% to $0.80, a level not seen in over a year.

Network activity signals declining user engagement

Martinez cited diminishing activity on the XRP Ledger as a primary concern. Daily active addresses have fallen to 38,500, representing a 16% decline from 46,000 users earlier in December. This drop signals growing disinterest and reduced participation in the XRP Ledger network.

Lower user activity typically correlates with weakening demand and reduced transaction volume. The metric serves as an on-chain indicator of network health and adoption trends. When active addresses decline steadily, it often precedes further price weakness.

Whale selling adds pressure to token supply

Martinez identified selling pressure from XRP whales as another factor contributing to downside risk. An earlier analysis from December 27 revealed whales reduced holdings by 40 million tokens. Large holders are either taking profits or cutting losses at current price levels.

This activity adds direct pressure to token supply while weakening overall demand. The whale selling pattern dampens market sentiment and signals lack of confidence among major stakeholders who typically hold long-term positions.