Original Title: Gulf Disruption Rewires Oil Trade, Strategy Adds $1B in Bitcoin, Shorts Get Cornered
Original Author: Talha Chaudhry, 1KONTO
Original Compilation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: Beneath a series of seemingly "positive" signals, the market is displaying a somewhat discordant structure: rising stock markets, falling oil prices, cooling inflation expectations, with investors beginning to re-bet on the "conflict containment" and "policy pivot" narratives. However, if we take a longer perspective, we find that deeper tensions have not disappeared.
On one hand, capital is actively ignoring short-term uncertainties, focusing attention on potential policy easing and technological cycles, especially AI; on the other hand, structural shocks from energy supply, global supply chains, and geopolitical games are quietly altering the long-term paths of demand and prices.
This division is also reflected across different markets: stocks are trading "expected solutions," while commodities and macroeconomic variables still reflect "unresolved problems."
When the deviation between narrative and reality continues to widen, the real risk often lies not in the variables already discussed, but in those selectively ignored by the market.
Below is the original text:
Market Briefing
Digital Asset Market
Between April 6 and 12, Strategy acquired an additional 13,927 bitcoins for approximately $1 billion, with an average purchase price of $71,902 per bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 780,897 BTC. The cumulative cost for these bitcoins is $59.02 billion, with an average holding cost of $75,577, still 19,103 bitcoins short of the 800,000 target.
The funds for this purchase came from the company's sale of 10 million shares of its Stretch Perpetual Preferred Stock (STRC) through an "At-The-Market" (ATM) offering, during which no STRF, STRK, STRD, or MSTR were sold. Notably, following the rule adjustment in March, the issuance scale of STRC reached one of the highest historical levels.
This operation occurred as the company disclosed an unrealized loss of $14.46 billion in digital assets for the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $786 million for the week, with bitcoin prices breaking through $70,000 before retreating to around $71,000 over the weekend amid geopolitical tensions triggered by failed negotiations and the announcement of a maritime blockade on April 13.
Macroeconomy
A noticeable increase in crude oil tanker traffic heading to the U.S. Gulf Coast indicates that global oil trade is rapidly restructuring in response to shocks from the Middle East situation. Shipping and data analysis companies point out that the number of vessels arriving in the U.S. to load crude oil for transshipment to supply-constrained European and Asian markets is far above normal levels.
With restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and hundreds of energy-related vessels queuing for loading, buyers are shifting supply chains to the U.S., even if it means detouring around Africa and undertaking longer transport routes. This change further strengthens the U.S. role as the "marginal supplier" and "emergency stabilizer" in the global energy system.
Some commentators view this trend as a shift in the geopolitical landscape—weakening Iran's leverage; simultaneously, it is also a story of logistics and capacity, including the expansion of Gulf port access. But behind it lies a macro-level trade-off: on one hand, increased U.S. exports help alleviate global oil price spikes and improve external balances; on the other hand, domestic consumers will bear the pressure of rising gasoline prices. While the U.S. has become a net oil exporter and is more resilient to oil price shocks than in the past, this still poses potential political and economic growth risks.
Stock Market
U.S. stocks rose for the second consecutive trading day, as investors chose to "ignore risks" against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, instead betting on optimistic expectations of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. The S&P 500 rose 1.18%, just about 1% away from its 52-week high; the Dow rose 0.66%; the Nasdaq rose 1.96%, led by tech stocks, with Oracle, NVIDIA, and Palantir Technologies performing notably.
Market sentiment was also buoyed by the lower-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) for March. Meanwhile, oil prices fell sharply, with WTI down about 7% and Brent crude down about 4%.
Earnings reports were mixed: Wells Fargo's stock fell due to disappointing results, while JPMorgan Chase, although exceeding profit expectations, edged lower after cutting its net interest income guidance.
Additionally, market rumors of a merger between United Airlines and American Airlines emerged, though it is expected to face severe antitrust scrutiny, yet both companies' stocks still rose.
NVIDIA continued its strong rally, driven by sustained robust demand for AI chips, the launch of the open-source "Ising" quantum model, and continued increases in capital expenditure by large tech companies; the company also denied acquisition rumors with PC manufacturers.
Federal Reserve & U.S. Treasury
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he is confident core inflation will continue to decline this year, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. However, he also understands that it would be reasonable for policymakers to wait for clearer signals on the economic impact of the Iran war before acting.
Data showed that overall inflation rose 0.9% month-on-month in March, with producer prices up 0.5%, primarily by energy; core inflation was significantly milder, at only 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. He noted that after the ceasefire, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices suggests inflation expectations are cooling.
The current overall Fed inclination is to keep rates unchanged, while political uncertainty is also rising: Jerome Powell's term ends in May, and the confirmation of Kevin Warsh may be delayed due to an investigation involving Senator Thom Tillis regarding cost overruns on a Fed building.
Geopolitics
The U.S. and Iran are attempting to arrange a second round of peace talks within days, potentially returning to Pakistan, aiming to make progress before the current ceasefire agreement expires next week. Iran is also considering a temporary suspension of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to ease tensions.
Although the Islamabad talks yielded no substantial results, diplomacy is advancing, but the U.S. has begun implementing a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, restricting Iranian oil exports, and warning it will intercept or divert vessels related to Iranian ports, while allowing neutral vessels passage. Market optimism about the prospects of an agreement led to falling oil prices and rising stocks.
The conflict has already damaged regional energy infrastructure, disrupted global supply chains, and pushed up fuel costs. The International Energy Agency warned that global oil demand could see its first annual decline since 2020. Meanwhile, Switzerland offered diplomatic support, Israel continued operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and significant differences remain between the U.S. and Iran on nuclear issues—the U.S. proposed a long-term suspension, while Iran prefers a shorter duration.
Our View
Negative Funding Rates, Not $76,000, Might Be the True Bitcoin Bottom Signal
Bitcoin's struggle near $76,000 may not be as significant as the market thinks; more attention should be paid to the off-chain structure: the derivatives market has seen negative funding rates for 46 consecutive days, meaning traders are consistently "paying to short." In a market typically biased long, this is extremely rare.
The last time sentiment was this one-sided was after the FTX collapse, when extreme pessimism highly coincided with the cycle bottom. Of course, this does not mean history will simply repeat, as macro environment, regulatory, and liquidity variables still affect the market. But it is certain that short positions have become significantly crowded.
The real risk may not lie in further declines, but in—should even mild positive news emerge—shorts being forced to cover in a relatively illiquid environment, potentially triggering a violent upward repricing.
Gulf Shock May Fade, But Some Oil Demand Could Be Permanently Lost
Markets often view demand destruction as a short-term phenomenon, but historical experience shows that severe supply shocks often leave long-lasting effects.
When prices spike and supplies短缺, airlines retire inefficient aircraft, industrial users adjust production processes, residents and businesses change consumption habits, and governments accelerate energy diversification. These "passive savings" often evolve into "structural demand reduction."
This presents a key second-order risk: when supply from the Gulf region recovers, the pace of supply修复 may outpace demand recovery. Then, relief in the spot market could translate into a repricing in financial markets—narrowing spreads, rising inventories, declining refining margins, and producers realizing that a portion of the demand formed during the crisis has permanently disappeared.
Key Supply Chain Reshoring Tests Execution, Not Just Slogans
Supply chain reshoring around electrification, defense, and advanced manufacturing is accelerating, but "urgency" itself does not solve the problem.
Core segments such as rare earth processing, critical metals, and magnets remain highly concentrated in China, exposing Western supply chain vulnerabilities at a time when strategic dependence is unacceptable. Initiatives like USA Rare Earth setting up processing capacity in France and advancing capacity building in Oklahoma show the direction is clear; government involvement also means "reshoring" is shifting from a cost issue to a security and resilience issue.
But the real challenge lies in execution: approval efficiency, long-term financing, skilled labor, and stable downstream demand are all essential. If these foundational conditions cannot advance simultaneously, supply chain reshoring may remain a costly strategic vision rather than truly actionable industrial capacity.
Happy Trading
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