Original | Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma(@azuma_eth)
Remember Leopold Aschenbrenner? The 24-year-old “New AI Stock God” we introduced in our article “SBF's Underling Turns $225 Million into $5.5 Billion in One Year”.
Leopold Aschenbrenner worked at FTX's Future Fund in 2022 and remained with the team until FTX's collapse. In 2024, Leopold Aschenbrenner wrote a 165-page super-paper titled “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead” and founded a fund of the same name, Situational Awareness LP, the same year, where he serves as Chief Investment Officer.
Situational Awareness LP focuses on investment opportunities in the AI industry chain. The fund's publicly disclosed holdings were “only” $225 million in Q4 2024, but by the Q4 2025 holdings disclosure released this February, that number had skyrocketed to $5.5 billion. This explosive investment performance has greatly boosted the reputation of Leopold Aschenbrenner and Situational Awareness LP, making it one of the most closely watched AI investment trends online.
Now, it's once again the critical window for Situational Awareness LP to disclose its holdings (13F). Starting last week, the entire internet has been eagerly waiting for the fund to reveal the current AI investment playbook, but as of publishing, the disclosure from Situational Awareness LP is still awaited.
The so-called 13F is a quarterly disclosure document required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from funds with assets under management exceeding $100 million. The SEC mandates that funds meeting the disclosure requirements must submit this document within 45 days after the end of each calendar quarter. The fund is required to disclose its holdings of U.S. listed stocks, call/put options, convertible bonds, and specific ETF positions as of the end of the previous quarter.
Today is May 18th, three days past the Q1 2026 disclosure deadline of May 15th. Over the past few days, numerous sovereign wealth funds, university endowment funds, and traditional financial institutions have already disclosed their Q1 13F holdings reports, but the market is still waiting for Situational Awareness LP's disclosure.
Based on various market analyses, the following three scenarios may have affected Situational Awareness LP's 13F disclosure progress.
The first possibility is that Situational Awareness LP may have submitted the document to the SEC after 5:30 PM on May 15th. Since that day was a Friday, the SEC may not have had time to process it, so the document would need to be published on the SEC website the following Monday, after which the public could see it.
This is the mainstream market view. If this is the case, we can expect to see Situational Awareness LP's 13F file later today (or tomorrow at the latest).
The second possibility is that Situational Awareness LP has applied to the SEC for confidential treatment. This is a legal mechanism provided by the SEC that allows large funds to delay public disclosure of their holdings information while they are still actively building positions, with delays of up to one year.
Generally, the only reason a fund applies for confidential treatment is that they are building a position large enough that if the market were to learn about it prematurely, it would move the price against them before they finish building. If this is the case, it would mean Leopold Aschenbrenner is quietly accumulating a significant asset and temporarily does not want the market to know. This would undoubtedly warrant even closer market attention.
The third scenario is highly unlikely: Situational Awareness LP significantly reduced its holdings in the past quarter, bringing its portfolio size below the 13F disclosure threshold ($100 million). Considering the fund held $5.5 billion last quarter, the probability of this is extremely low.
In short, we only need to wait another 1 to 2 days to know the real reason for Situational Awareness LP's disclosure delay this time.
If it's the first scenario, we will bring you an analysis of the portfolio changes as soon as the 13F is released. If it's the second reason, the entire internet will truly be on edge—what exactly is Leopold Aschenbrenner hoarding? That would be the moment for internet investigators to shine.
