# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Volatility

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Volatility", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Arthur Hayes' New Article: It's 'No-Trade Zone' Time

Arthur Hayes argues that the current market is in a "no-trade zone," a period of high uncertainty created by two converging forces: the deflationary shock from AI and the inflationary shock from geopolitics. AI agents are rapidly displacing knowledge workers, eroding their incomes and creditworthiness, which will eventually trigger a deflationary financial crisis in consumer credit-dependent Western economies. Simultaneously, the war in the Middle East, particularly the potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, threatens global energy supplies and could force nations to abandon the dollar system. Hayes outlines three main scenarios: 1) A return to normalcy, where the deflationary AI shock remains the primary concern; 2) The "Tehran Toll Booth," where Iran controls the Strait and demands payment in gold or yuan, accelerating the end of dollar hegemony; and 3) "Empire Strikes Back," where the US destroys Iran's capabilities but risks a catastrophic regional war that sends commodity prices soaring. In all but the most extreme scenarios, Hayes posits that the key driver for Bitcoin's price will be the *quantity* of money, not its price (interest rates). He expects that governments, forced to fund wars and stockpile resources, will have to print money, expanding the money supply. This would be bullish for fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin, even if it occurs alongside rising rates. However, he cautions that until this liquidity is explicitly unleashed (e.g., when bond market volatility spikes), the risk/reward for new long positions is poor. His current strategy is to wait for a clear signal of monetary expansion before deploying capital, preferring to hold gold and select crypto assets in the meantime.

marsbit04/20 00:13

Arthur Hayes' New Article: It's 'No-Trade Zone' Time

marsbit04/20 00:13

XRP Gains Momentum As Buyers Return, But Here’s What The Sharpe Ratio Is Saying

XRP is showing signs of renewed bullish momentum as buyers return, approaching the $1.50 mark. However, the Sharpe Ratio, a key risk-adjusted performance metric, remains in negative territory, indicating underlying market inefficiency and a lack of efficient expansion. Crypto expert Teddy notes that while the overheated phase has passed, the ratio's negative reading suggests the market is still in a recovery phase from earlier losses. Momentum indicators show compression, with analysts predicting a potential aggressive move towards the 6.127% level if bullish momentum continues. A break above could open upward space of up to 12%, though it remains unclear whether this will be a sustained expansion or a retracement.

bitcoinist04/18 01:02

XRP Gains Momentum As Buyers Return, But Here’s What The Sharpe Ratio Is Saying

bitcoinist04/18 01:02

Bitcoin Recovery Fails To Lift Market Sentiment From Extreme Fear

Despite Bitcoin's recent recovery to around $74,800, the overall market sentiment remains in "extreme fear," according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. The index, which measures investor sentiment based on factors like volatility, social media, and trading volume, is at a value of 23, just inside the extreme fear zone. This marks a continued period of bearish sentiment since late 2025. Although Bitcoin's rally provided a brief uplift in mid-March, the current price movement has not been enough to shift market psychology into a more positive or greedy territory. For sentiment to improve, a sustained bullish momentum may be required.

bitcoinist04/17 11:02

Bitcoin Recovery Fails To Lift Market Sentiment From Extreme Fear

bitcoinist04/17 11:02

Are Altcoins Soaring? Is the Bull Market Back?

Recent days have seen significant volatility in altcoins while Bitcoin remained relatively stable. Some low-market-cap tokens, with circulations under $20 million, surged by several hundred percent within days—without fundamental improvements, ecosystem breakthroughs, or new institutional inflows. This is not a true altseason. The Altseason Index stands at 34, and Bitcoin dominance is at 58.5%, indicating the market is still in a "Bitcoin season." The altcoin market cap has shrunk by ~40% since its peak in December 2024, falling to around $700 billion. This severe decline has made it cheaper for large holders to accumulate significant portions of circulating supply, enabling price manipulation. A case in point is SIREN, where a single entity allegedly controlled up to 88% of the circulating supply. Such concentration allows a small group to dictate price movements. Additionally, deeply negative funding rates (as low as -0.3% every 8 hours, annualized to -328%) force short sellers to pay high fees, accelerating liquidations and further fueling upward price spikes. On-chain activity, like a 97% weekly increase in BSC DEX volume, suggests excitement, but it is largely driven by existing capital, not new inflows. Institutional flows into altcoin ETFs (like those for Solana and XRP) have been weak or negative, indicating caution rather than rotation into altcoins. This rally is a signal of structural fragility, not broad bullish momentum. Until Bitcoin dominance falls significantly and new capital enters the altcoin space, these pumps are echoes of manipulation—not the return of a true bull market.

marsbit04/17 06:24

Are Altcoins Soaring? Is the Bull Market Back?

marsbit04/17 06:24

US Stocks Hit Record Highs: Why Isn't the Market Afraid of the Flames of War?

U.S. stocks hit a record high on April 15, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,022.95, just 77 days after its previous peak. This rebound occurred in only 11 trading days—far faster than recoveries following past crises like the COVID-19 pandemic (103 days) or the 2011 debt crisis (106 days). The market's rapid recovery is attributed to "ceasefire expectations" rather than deteriorating economic fundamentals. During the sell-off triggered by the U.S.-Israel military action against Iran in late February, the S&P 500 fell nearly 10%. However, the market rallied twice on ceasefire rumors—first on March 24 and again on April 8—even before any permanent peace deal was signed. Notably, the VIX fear index fell below pre-war levels, indicating that the market had repriced the conflict from an uncertainty to a calculable risk. Major financial institutions like JPMorgan reported record trading revenues of $11.6 billion in Q1 2026, largely driven by volatility in commodities and emerging markets. Hedge funds turned net long for the first time since late 2025, while margin debt hit a record $1.28 trillion. This reflects a financial system that commercializes volatility, treating geopolitical shocks as tradable opportunities rather than systemic threats. However, the current optimism relies on assumptions of a sustained ceasefire and stable oil prices, leaving the market vulnerable if these conditions change.

marsbit04/16 07:13

US Stocks Hit Record Highs: Why Isn't the Market Afraid of the Flames of War?

marsbit04/16 07:13

Goldman Sachs Applies for Bitcoin Covered Call Options ETF, Wall Street Accelerates Taming of Crypto Assets

Goldman Sachs Asset Management has filed with the SEC to launch a Bitcoin covered call options ETF, marking the bank's first direct move into cryptocurrency investments. The fund will hold Bitcoin exposure and sell associated call options to generate premium income, distributed to investors as monthly yield. This strategy caps upside potential during significant Bitcoin price rallies in exchange for steady income, targeting cautious investors seeking crypto exposure with reduced volatility. The product mirrors a well-established equity ETF structure that has grown rapidly, with the covered call category now holding over $180 billion in assets. Similar Bitcoin yield-generating strategies have been filed by BlackRock and offered by firms like Roundhill. This development underscores Wall Street’s ongoing integration of crypto into mainstream finance, exemplified by Goldman CEO David Solomon’s recent acknowledgment of personally holding Bitcoin. However, the product’s downside protection remains limited—premium income may not fully offset severe Bitcoin price declines, highlighting the persistent volatility of crypto assets.

华尔街日报04/16 04:16

Goldman Sachs Applies for Bitcoin Covered Call Options ETF, Wall Street Accelerates Taming of Crypto Assets

华尔街日报04/16 04:16

BlackRock Is Buying Up Bitcoin & Ethereum Again, And The Numbers Are Staggering

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is significantly increasing its Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings through its crypto ETFs, signaling strong institutional demand despite market volatility. From April 6-10, the firm attracted approximately $780 million in inflows, with $612 million going into its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and $168 million into its Ethereum Trust (ETHA). This requires purchasing equivalent amounts of BTC and ETH on the open market, held by Coinbase Custody. As a result, BlackRock now holds $56.8 billion in BTC (791,284 coins) and $6.92 billion in ETH (3,008,094 coins). The trend extends beyond ETFs, with whales halting sales and firms like MicroStrategy aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, adding 13,927 BTC ($1 billion) to reach 780,897 BTC total. This institutional momentum is supporting crypto prices, with BTC and ETH gaining over 3% during the inflow period.

bitcoinist04/15 23:01

BlackRock Is Buying Up Bitcoin & Ethereum Again, And The Numbers Are Staggering

bitcoinist04/15 23:01

Why Has Bitcoin Risen Against the Trend Amid Turmoil?

Title: Why Bitcoin Defies Market Turmoil and Rises Against the Odds? Amidst the recent Iran conflict, Bitcoin demonstrated unexpected strength, rising 12% while traditional risk assets like the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold dropped 10%. This challenges the conventional view of Bitcoin is a risk-on asset. Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, argues that Bitcoin’s surge is not due to ignorance of geopolitical tensions or long-term money printing expectations, but is directly driven by the conflict itself. Hougan proposes a dual-investment thesis for Bitcoin: it acts both as a "digital gold" competing in the $38 trillion store-of-value market, and as a speculative bet on becoming a genuine global currency. While the first narrative has dominated the past five years, the second—once a distant possibility—is gaining relevance as global financial systems become increasingly weaponized. The 2022 SWIFT sanctions against Russia marked a turning point, prompting nations to explore alternative financial networks. Iran’s recent move to demand Bitcoin payments for shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz exemplifies this shift. Such developments increase the probability of Bitcoin being used as a neutral, apolitical settlement medium and amplify global monetary system volatility. This dual role suggests Bitcoin’s potential market extends beyond gold’s $38 trillion valuation. Its pricing is now influenced not only by liquidity or tech stock trends but also by growing uncertainties in the international financial architecture. As geopolitical friction elevates Bitcoin’s monetary attributes, its upside potential may be significantly revalued.

marsbit04/15 20:31

Why Has Bitcoin Risen Against the Trend Amid Turmoil?

marsbit04/15 20:31

Ozak AI Continues Presale Growth Past $6.67 Million as Broader Crypto Market Sees Reduced Trading Volumes

Despite a broader cryptocurrency market experiencing volatility and declining trading volumes, Ozak AI’s to attract significant investor interest, surpassing $6.67 million in its presale funding. This indicates that capital is becoming more selective, focusing on projects with strong utility and long-term potential rather than short-term speculation. Ozak AI’s artificial intelligence and data-driven automation narrative resonates with current market trends, positioning it as a relevant player in the evolving DeFi and on-chain analytics space. The presale’s steady growth during a period of overall market consolidation suggests investor confidence in its asymmetric upside potential, as participants seek early positioning ahead of a anticipated market reacceleration.

TheNewsCrypto04/15 11:05

Ozak AI Continues Presale Growth Past $6.67 Million as Broader Crypto Market Sees Reduced Trading Volumes

TheNewsCrypto04/15 11:05

Here’s How Solana And XRP ETFs Have Performed Compared To Bitcoin And Ethereum

The article compares the performance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP ETFs over the past week. Data shows Bitcoin ETFs had significant volatility, with a large $471.3M inflow on April 6, followed by sharp outflows, and then a brief rebound before turning negative again. Ethereum ETFs followed a similar pattern, with a notable $120.24M inflow but also periods of outflows. In stark contrast, Solana and XRP ETFs saw much more muted activity. XRP attracted only $13.8M in total inflows, while Solana saw just $11.69M. This indicates a cautious investor stance towards these altcoins compared to the more established Bitcoin and Ethereum.

bitcoinist04/15 03:32

Here’s How Solana And XRP ETFs Have Performed Compared To Bitcoin And Ethereum