Trump's Post Leaked in Advance? Polymarket Abnormal Betting Points to US-Iran Ceasefire Before Next Week
Former US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that "very good and productive discussions" were taking place to resolve the Middle East conflict. Prior to this public statement, several accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket placed large bets, totaling approximately $160,000, that a ceasefire between the US would occur by March 31 or April 15. These bets, which would yield over $1 million if successful, were made by 10 newly created accounts and had already generated over $300,000 in floating profits after Trump's post. The timing and success of these wagers, particularly from an account with a history of profitable bets on geopolitical events, have raised suspicions of insider trading. In response, Polymarket announced new rules explicitly prohibiting trading on stolen confidential information, illegal insider knowledge, or by users who can influence event outcomes.
Concurrently, unusual trading activity was detected in S&P 500 e-mini futures and WTI crude oil futures just minutes before Trump's post. A significant, isolated spike in volume occurred in these typically illiquid pre-market sessions. Shortly after the post, S&P futures surged over 2.5% while oil prices fell nearly 6%, suggesting that some entities may have traded on advance knowledge of the announcement. The SEC and CME Group declined to comment.
marsbit03/24 02:09
