# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Hyperliquid to Launch Portfolio Margin: A Game-Changer or a Double-Edged Sword?

Hyperliquid, a leading Perp DEX, is introducing portfolio margin on its testnet, a significant upgrade aimed at professional and institutional traders. This system unifies users' spot and perpetual accounts, calculating margin requirements based on net risk exposure rather than summing individual positions. It rewards hedging strategies by freeing up capital, potentially improving efficiency by over 30%, as seen in traditional finance. This move signals Hyperliquid's strategic shift towards courting capital-efficient institutional players, offering benefits like a unified account for seamless trading, automatic yield on idle assets, and a theoretical 3.35x increase in leverage. It aims to support complex strategies like delta-neutral trading and arbitrage, potentially improving liquidity and tightening spreads. However, the system amplifies risks inherent in DeFi's lender-of-last-resort absence. Higher efficiency means losses and liquidations can accelerate more quickly. In extreme market conditions, correlated crashes could cause hedges to fail simultaneously, rapidly expanding risk exposure. Furthermore, the liquidation of a large, leveraged unified account could trigger a multi-asset fire sale, potentially creating a cascading liquidation spiral across connected markets and even impacting integrated lending protocols within Hyperliquid's HyperEVM ecosystem. This innovation is a high-stakes gamble on attracting institutions and a severe test for DeFi's resilience.

marsbit12/16 13:20

Hyperliquid to Launch Portfolio Margin: A Game-Changer or a Double-Edged Sword?

marsbit12/16 13:20

Fighting Repeatedly, Losing Repeatedly, Where Does Machi's 'Endless Supply of Money' Come From?

Last night, the crypto market witnessed another dramatic liquidation event. Prominent investor Jeffrey Huang (known as "Machi Big Brother") saw his long positions on Hyperliquid get liquidated 10 times in rapid succession. His account balance plummeted from $1.3 million to just over $53,000—wiping out more than $1.25 million. This is not his first major loss. In October 2024, a $79 million ETH long position was liquidated, resulting in a net loss of over $10 million and a $54.5 million profit reversal. Despite these massive losses, Huang repeatedly replenishes his margin, often within days, and continues high-leverage trading, frequently using 15x to 25x leverage. The article explores the source of his seemingly endless capital. It identifies three main layers: 1) Traditional tech exit liquidity from the sale of his shares in 17LIVE; 2) Capital from early, controversial crypto projects like Mithril (MITH) and Cream Finance (CREAM); and 3) A sophisticated NFT liquidity engine where he strategically sells high-value NFTs (like Bored Apes), farms airdrops (e.g., Blur), and uses NFT-backed lending to generate constant streams of ETH and stablecoins. His ability to absorb millions in losses suggests a deep, diversified liquidity reserve, estimated at over $100 million. He further refreshes this capital by launching new token projects, like MACHI on Blast. For ordinary investor, his story is a stark warning about the extreme risks of high-leverage trading and the importance of survival over the pursuit of rapid riches.

marsbit12/16 11:10

Fighting Repeatedly, Losing Repeatedly, Where Does Machi's 'Endless Supply of Money' Come From?

marsbit12/16 11:10

Is the Plunge Just Beginning? Three 'Macro Bombs' for BTC About to Detonate

Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop on December 15, falling from $89,000 to around $85,000, nearing its December 1 low. The market fear and greed index has fallen to 21, indicating extreme fear. Three major macroeconomic events are expected to further impact Bitcoin's price: First, the U.S. November non-farm payroll data will be released on December 16. Due to the previous government shutdown, October data was incomplete, which may lead to market volatility. Weak data could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut in January 2026, but could also increase selling pressure on Bitcoin. Second, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19, marking its highest rate in 30 years. This could end the long-standing yen carry trade, reducing liquidity in risk assets like Bitcoin. Historical data shows Bitcoin often drops over 20% following BoJ rate hikes. Third, uncertainty over the next Fed Chair is growing. Kevin Warsh, considered more hawkish, has gained traction as a potential nominee over Kevin Hassett. A Warsh appointment could mean tighter monetary policy, further suppressing Bitcoin’s upward momentum. These factors materialize, Bitcoin may face continued downward pressure, with some analysts predicting a fall toward $70,000.

Odaily星球日报12/16 09:33

Is the Plunge Just Beginning? Three 'Macro Bombs' for BTC About to Detonate

Odaily星球日报12/16 09:33

Before You Jump on Any ICO Bandwagon, Read This First

Before participating in any ICO, it's crucial to understand that most projects fail, and only a few achieve success. The recent hype around ICOs, driven by projects like MegaETH and Plasma, often leads to impulsive investments without proper due diligence. Here are key points to consider: 1. **Product Fundamentals**: Evaluate if the product solves a real problem and has genuine innovation. Avoid projects based on future promises or testnet data without a working product. 2. **Team Experience**: The team's track record matters. Experienced teams can adapt to market changes, while weak teams may disappear when hype fades. 3. **Investors and Valuation**: Check if reputable VCs are involved and assess the valuation. Avoid projects where insiders have low valuations, leaving retail investors at risk. 4. **Authentic Data**: Look beyond surface metrics like TVL or user numbers. Ensure data is genuine and not inflated by incentives or fake activity. 5. **Marketing and Narrative**: Strong projects control their narrative and attract organic attention. Poor projects rely on buzzwords without substance. 6. **Tokenomics**: Understand token unlock schedules, vesting, and fully diluted valuation (FDV). Avoid structures that favor insiders and shift risk to retail. 7. **Market Conditions**: Market cycles significantly impact valuation and returns. The same project may perform differently in a bull vs. bear market. ICO investments are not free money. Avoid FOMO-driven decisions and prioritize projects with real value over hype.

深潮12/16 06:49

Before You Jump on Any ICO Bandwagon, Read This First

深潮12/16 06:49

Surging and Warning Signs Appear Simultaneously: Is SHIB Building Up for a Big Move? ADA Flatlines with Warning, BEAT Soars 480% but Hides Risks, ZEC Holds Firm at $400

The cryptocurrency market is currently showing mixed signals with significant divergence across major tokens. SHIB appears to be consolidating after months of decline, showing signs of reduced selling pressure and potential accumulation by large holders. Key indicators like RSI suggest building momentum, though it remains under its moving averages. ZEC is struggling, down 3.82%, and is heavily reliant on holding the crucial $400 support level. Its performance is being dragged down by the broader privacy coin sector. A break above $425 is needed to signal a potential bullish trend reversal. ADA has triggered a major bearish signal with its weekly SuperTrend indicator turning negative—a similar signal in 2022 preceded an 80% crash. It has already retreated from $0.48 to $0.40, indicating strong downward pressure. BEAT has been an outlier, surging 480% in 30 days due to high speculative interest, AI-driven token burns, and extreme scarcity (only 16% of supply in circulation). However, it faces strong resistance at its all-time high of $3, and indicators like MACD show buying momentum cooling, suggesting a potential pullback toward $2.40 or even $1.25. Overall, the market is highly fragmented. Caution is advised—watch key support and resistance levels before making moves.

金色财经12/16 03:55

Surging and Warning Signs Appear Simultaneously: Is SHIB Building Up for a Big Move? ADA Flatlines with Warning, BEAT Soars 480% but Hides Risks, ZEC Holds Firm at $400

金色财经12/16 03:55

BTC Falls Back to $10,000?! Bloomberg Senior Expert Gives the Most Pessimistic Prediction

Bitcoin has retreated below $90,000, extending a 30%+ decline from its October all-time high. The broader crypto market is under pressure, with most top assets in the red. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone issued a stark warning, predicting Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 by 2026. He argues that global markets are approaching an inflationary-to-deflationary inflection point, where risk assets like Bitcoin—viewed as highly speculative and dependent on liquidity—could face severe repricing. McGlone cites three factors: extreme wealth reversion to the mean, Bitcoin's high valuation relative to gold, and systemic oversupply of speculative crypto assets. While not all analysts agree, institutions like Standard Chartered have also lowered mid-term Bitcoin price targets. The market's direction is now tied to macro conditions, with key central bank decisions and economic data releases expected to shape the trajectory of risk assets in 2026.

比推12/15 23:58

BTC Falls Back to $10,000?! Bloomberg Senior Expert Gives the Most Pessimistic Prediction

比推12/15 23:58

The $150,000 Collective Hallucination: Why Did All Major Institutions Get Bitcoin Wrong in 2025?

At the beginning of 2025, major institutions and analysts were overwhelmingly bullish on Bitcoin, with consensus year-end price predictions reaching $170,000 or higher, driven by three core narratives: the post-halving cycle effect, massive expected inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and supportive regulatory policies under the Trump administration. However, by December, Bitcoin had fallen over 33% from its October peak to around $92,000, sharply contradicting these forecasts. The collective misjudgment stemmed from several critical errors. First, the market had already priced in ETF inflows, which later underperformed and even saw significant outflows. Second, historical cycle models failed as macro conditions diverged—unlike previous cycles, 2025 faced a hawkish Fed and high interest rates, undermining Bitcoin’s performance. Third, institutional analysts often had structural biases: many worked for firms with vested interests in promoting bullish narratives, leading to over-optimistic targets that served client interests and media attention rather than reality. Finally, Bitcoin’s misclassified as a inflation hedge like gold when it actually behaves more like a high-beta tech stock, highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. The episode underscores that precise price prediction is inherently flawed in a complex, multi-variable market. When consensus forms around a narrative, it often becomes a trap. The key lesson is the importance of independent thinking, valuing contrarian perspectives, and prioritizing risk management over speculative forecasts.

marsbit12/15 14:48

The $150,000 Collective Hallucination: Why Did All Major Institutions Get Bitcoin Wrong in 2025?

marsbit12/15 14:48

Bitcoin Rally May Have Ended, Beware of Adjustment Risks | Invited Analysis

BTC Rebound Likely Over, Correction Risk Ahead | Weekly Analysis by Conaldo The three-week Bitcoin rebound shows signs of exhaustion, with weakening bullish momentum. The market faces key resistance levels, suggesting a potential short-term pullback to test lower supports, possibly initiating a second wave of decline. Last week, three short positions were executed following a "sell the rally" strategy within the defined 94,200–83,500 USD range, yielding a total return of 6.15%. Key technical models (Momentum Quant + Spread Trading) identified precise entry and exit points near resistance. Weekly and daily technical analysis indicates the market has turned bearish on higher timeframes. The momentum model shows signals of a bearish crossover forming on the daily chart, confirming the rebound is losing strength. This week’s outlook is bearish-biased. If support at 87,500–89,000 USD fails, a move toward 80,000–83,500 is anticipated. Resistance is expected at 92,500–94,500 USD. Two short-term trading plans are proposed based on whether support holds or breaks. Key macro events this week include Fed speeches and U.S. November CPI data. A lower CPI may support risk assets, while higher inflation could strengthen the dollar and pressure BTC. Risk management is emphasized: set stop-losses immediately at entry, move to breakeven at +1% profit, and trail stops to lock in gains thereafter. Disclaimer: Views are based on technical analysis and personal strategy, not investment advice. Trade with caution. DYOR.

Odaily星球日报12/15 05:33

Bitcoin Rally May Have Ended, Beware of Adjustment Risks | Invited Analysis

Odaily星球日报12/15 05:33

Oracle Plunges 40%, Will Excessive AI Infrastructure Overbuild Drag Down Giants?

Oracle's stock has plummeted 40% from its September peak, despite securing over $500 billion in AI infrastructure orders, signaling that massive backlogs alone no longer assure investor confidence. Similarly, Broadcom, with a $73 billion AI order backlog, and CoreWeave, which recently landed $36 billion in deals with OpenAI and Meta, have also faced stock declines. The market is growing skeptical of the AI infrastructure boom, concerned not only about suppliers' ability to fund and deliver these projects but also about the financial health and commitment of their major clients—primarily tech giants like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia, alongside AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic. While giants have robust finances, they are increasingly relying on debt to fuel AI capex, with soaring expenditures on data centers straining cash reserves and free cash flow. For instance, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon are projected to collectively invest $1 trillion over four years. However, AI still contributes minimally to their overall revenue, raising questions about the sustainability of using profits from core businesses to fund speculative AI expansions. Execution challenges—such as power grid limitations, cooling issues, and community opposition—further complicate timely deployment. The critical uncertainty remains: if exponential AI demand fails to materialize and monetize quickly enough, these vast investments could lead to underutilized infrastructure, massive losses, and a fundamental weakening of these tech titans. The race between AI infrastructure build-out and actual market payoff will determine whether this bet becomes a triumph or a disastrous overreach.

marsbit12/13 06:04

Oracle Plunges 40%, Will Excessive AI Infrastructure Overbuild Drag Down Giants?

marsbit12/13 06:04

Financial Times: Why the world should be worried about stablecoins

The article from the Financial Times argues that the global push for dollar-denominated stablecoins, particularly from the US, is a cause for serious concern. While stablecoins are promoted as a solution to high US payment costs and inefficient cross-border transfers, their adoption primarily benefits issuers, criminals, and the US Treasury by helping finance its deficits. However, stablecoins lack the stability, transparency, and regulatory oversight of traditional money. They fail key tests of singleness (uniform value), resilience, and integrity (resisting illicit activity), as highlighted by institutions like the BIS. The author suggests that instead of embracing these risky private currencies, other countries—especially in Europe—should develop their own well-regulated digital payment systems. The piece concludes that the current US approach to stablecoins is predatory and could have disastrous consequences, warranting global resistance.

marsbit12/12 15:58

Financial Times: Why the world should be worried about stablecoins